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Record: 7-8 +3.8 units
#14 Washington St (+3.5) at #24 Stanford (-105)
After Mike Leach and the Washington State Cougars held the Oregon Ducks scoreless at half last weekend, I have jumped on the bandwagon. Gardner Minshew proved that he is the real deal, throwing for 323 yards and 4 TDs. I was eager for Vegas to set the line for this game, to my surprise Stanford was the favorite. Stanford’s best player Bryce Love is questionable for the game. If Love can’t play, think about taking Washington State moneyline. The wrong team is favored in this game in my eyes. The Cougars are coming in hot! 6-1 straight up and 7-0 ATS the season. Gardner Minshew is having a phenomenal season; he has thrown for 2,745 yards 23 TDs and 6 INTs. He might be a product of a great system, regardless he is playing lights out. Stanford on the other hand has been solid on defense but their offense has left much to be desired. They have struggled offensively in their last three games. Had it not been for their 38 point performance against Oregon, there 24 points per game average would be much lower. When Bryce Love is not on the field their offense is abysmal. Although Stanford only has two blemishes on their record this season, they are only 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games against Washington St. I do believe the Washington State Cougars will come out on top this game, but the smart play here is to take the 3.5 points.
Bet 2 units on Washington St to win 1.9 units (-105)
#9 Florida vs #7 Georgia (-6.5) (-115)
The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is here! The line was set to fool the public. The last four meetings between the two teams have been decided by double digits. Despite Georgia’s poor performance against LSU, I expect this game to be very similar to last year’s. The Gators struggled mightily against the Bulldogs, losing 42-7. Had Georgia beaten LSU, the opening spread would have been closer to 13 or 14. The line for this game has moved from 9 all the way down to 6.5. I fully expect the public to continue to move this line closer to 5.5 prior to kickoff. I am a big fan of fading the public in big football games. Prior to the line moving to 6.5, over 58% of the betting public was on the Gators. Rightfully so, the Gators are having a great season both statistically and for betting purposes. They are 6-1 with the 16th ranked defense while going 6-1 ATS. Very impressive ATS numbers, especially if you are comparing them to Georgia’s 3-4 ATS record. Don’t let the ATS numbers for Georgia fool you. Three of those games where won pretty handedly. The Bulldogs beat Tennessee 38-12, Mizzou 43-29, and Austin Peay 45-0 failing to cover in all three. The Georgia Bulldogs are better offensively and defensively than the Gators and are looking for a team to beat down after they got embarrassed by LSU. D’Andre Swift, who had been dealing with an early season injury had the bye week to get healthy is ready for his breakout game of the season. I see this game being close through the first half and then Bulldogs pulling away as the game progresses.
Bet 1 units on Georgia to win .86 units (-115)
Duke (-2.5) at Pittsburgh (-105)(
In betting we know the phrase, “lock of the week” is the most loaded phrase there is. In sports betting there is no such thing as a “lock.” Duke -2.5 at Pittsburgh might be the closest thing we have to a lock all week. The Blue Devils have only lost 2 games all season, one coming last week at the hands of a hot Virginia Cavaliers team. Both Duke and Pittsburgh are 4-3 ATS and the Panthers are at home; which is the reason the line opened at 4. Bet the Blue Devils with confidence, this is the same Panthers team that got destroyed by Penn St 6-51 and embarrassed by UCF 14-45. With that being said, both teams do boast great betting trends. Duke is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. While 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Panthers trends are very similar. They are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games, 4-1 ATS at home, and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Had the line stayed at 4, I would’ve probably advised you to stay away from this game. But Duke is the much better team offensively and defensively. The biggest discrepancy between the two teams comes on the defensive side of the ball. The Blue Devils hold their opponents to just 19 points per game, while the Panthers allow their opponents to score over 30 points per game. Unless you strongly believe this Pittsburgh team is capable of beating this Blue Devils team, bet Duke -2.5 with confidence.
Bet 4 unit on Duke to win 3.8 units (-105)
Parlay 1 unit on Kentucky +7.5, Texas ML, Oklahoma -25 to win 4.7 units (+472)