Welcome back to the NFL Daily Fantasy Preview using data science & data visualizations – today our focus is running backs.
We are going to explore total touches & try to predict what RBs will have value in week 3. Continue reading as I take a deep dive into the Running Back position or if you want to just scroll through and look at the pictures – I bolded a few key statements to allow you to follow along as well.
The week’s viz is a scatter plot that utilizes receiving targets per game (y-axis) & rushing attempts per game (x-axis) to find out what RBs have the most touches (receiving targets + rushing attempts) and see who the dual threat running backs truly are.
Dual threat running backs are all the rage in 2019. Fantasy owners not only want running backs with high rushing attempts per game but high receiving targets per game also -more touches (targets + rushing attempts) equals more opportunities to put up fantasy points. The RBs with the most fantasy points are highlighted below. Of these RBs, there are 6 that average more than 3.6 receiving targets per game: Le’veon Bell, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Chris Carson, & David Johnson. The other four: Marlon Mack, Dalvin Cook, Josh Jacobs, & Derrick Henry all average less than 3.6 receiving targets per game. We will utilize total touches per game (receiving targets per game + rushing attempts per game) plus some other basic stats to take a deep dive into the RB position to find true value.
High Priced Running Backs ($9.1K – $5.7K)
The chart below shows the 15 most expensive RBs (excluding TNF) – the bar length is total touches (receiving targets + rushing attempts), the color indicates yards per touch (orange < 4 yds/touch | blue > 4 yds/touch), bar width is ’19 fantasy pts per game, & the thick black line graph is total TDs. The tall wide, dark blue bars are the running backs with the most touches, average the most yards with those touches, & turn those touches into TDs.
Dalvin Cook ($7.8K) is 2nd in total points, 4th in total touches, & 3rd in yards per touch (6.76 yds per attempt). The offensive game plan is tailored around Cook & that will not change anytime soon. I don’t expect him to continue scoring at his current rate (3 TDs) – but his involvement in the offensive game-plan will make him a stud week in and week out.
Le’Veon Bell ($7K) gets touches, that is a fact you cannot dispute (leads RBs with 57), but he also may have the shakiest QB situation in the league (s/o Dolphin / Steelers / Panthers / Titans / Bucs / Broncos fans). Could this be the reason his yards per touch is below 4 yds & his TD total is low (1)? Even with the box and deck being stacked against him – he is still 4th in fantasy points per game. I think as long as he is engaged with the team – Bell will continue to have value even with a stinky QB.
Todd Gurley ($6.7K) is constantly valued as a top 10 RB, but in my eyes he is not. He ranks 16th in fantasy pts per game, 13th in yds per touch, & has only scored 1 TD in 2019. I think his current rank of 16th is closer to what he truly is – stay away from Gurley until his price reflects his value.
James Conner ($6.4K) is another RB with a shaky QB situation – Mason Rudolph is set to start in week 3. So far in 2019 Conner ranks 29th in total touches, 19th in points per game, & 24th in yards per touch. I would wait and see how the offense looks without Big Ben, but I think Conner will have value down the line – just not in week 3.
Mark Ingram ($5.7K) does not get a lot of touches (ranks 29th) but boy does he turn those touches into points (averaging 6.34 yds per touch & scoring 2 TDs). Lamar Jackson & the Ravens offense have been the surprise of 2019 but are they the real deal? If Jackson continues his explosive ways – Ingram will benefit greatly. Continue playing Ingram until Jackson proves that he isn’t as good as he has looked so far. When Jackson regresses closer to the mean – dump Ingram fast.
Mid Priced Running Backs ($9.1K – $5.7K)
The chart below shows the 16-30 most expensive RBs (excluding TNF) – the bar length is total touches (receiving targets + rushing attempts), the color indicates yards per touch (orange < 4 yds/touch | blue > 4 yds/touch), bar width is ’19 fantasy pts per game, & the thick black line graph is total TDs. The tall wide, dark blue bars are the running backs with the most touches, average the most yards with those touches, & turn those touches into TDs.
Kerryon Johnson ($5.6K) has only scored 1 TD in 2019 but is still 19th in points per game. Johnson also is ranked 17th in yards per touch with 4.54 yds. I think Johnson is a big part of the Lions offense & should add more TDs to his above average yards per touch. Hope it will be this week & play Johnson as long as he is priced this low ($5.6K).
Joe Mixon ($5.5K) STINKS. That is all I have – don’t play him until he has 2 consecutive good games. And even then – I wouldn’t.
Josh Jacobs ($5.3K) is ranked 7th in points per game & the reason for that is his high yards per touch (5.89). Johnson is a talented pass catcher & with the lack of star power in Oakland (Vegas) – expect Jacobs to be the go to guy. Jacobs has tremendous value at this price, but with the news of his injury & illness – I am avoiding Jacobs in week 3. When he comes back fully healthy – Jacobs should have tremendous value at this price.
Carlos Hyde ($4.5K) has not scored a TD – that is why is he is not in the top 10 in points per game (current rank: 26). His yards per touch is an impressive 5.65 (11th among RBs). At just $4.5K there is much worse plays than Carlos Hyde. You can count on him being involved in the offense (31 touches per game) & he will turn those touches into yards – play Hyde in week 3.
Phillip Lindsay ($4.3K) has the most touches (37) among RBs priced between $4K & $5.6K. Unfortunately going forward, it is clear that Denver is splitting carries between Lindsay & Royce Freeman. I wouldn’t trust Lindsay going forward – until he is the clear RB1 for Denver.
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