Welcome back to the Data Viz DFS Preview utilizing data science & data visualizations – today our focus is running backs. Today we will be utilizing touches per game, week 7 price, total TDs, & yards per touch to understand what RBs have the best value for week 7.
Total touches is a great way to gauge how involved each RB will be in the offensive game plan. Obviously the more touches the more chances to score fantasy points – but touches per game didn’t seem like a fair comparison when comparing across different salary ranges.
Obviously lower priced running backs will most likely not get as many touches as the high priced RBs – that is why they are priced that way. So how can we compare fairly across all salary ranges? With that question in mind, I decided to divide total touches by salary. This number was too small so I divided salary by $1K and came up with touchers per $1K spent. Dividing by a salary/$1K establishes a baseline statistic that we can use to compare all RBs against. This is important because it levels the playing field regardless of price. We no longer care about overall touches or price – but only touches per $1K. This is what we will utilize to predict true value across the board. Remember this is just a starting point, we must now dive deeper into the position & match ups to find the best value plays.
Today’s viz is a vertical bar graph that shows touches per game per $1K, the color of the bar represents yards per touch (blue is good & orange is bad), & the grey circle indicates total TDs. The RBs are ordered by Week 7 DK price.
Expensive RBs ($8.9K – $5.8K)
Expensive RBs I Like For Week 7
Dalvin Cook ($8K) vs Lions: Cook is the 3rd most expensive RB but should be priced as the first – especially for week 7. Cook receives 22 touches per game, 6 yards per touch, & 2.7 touches per $1K – which would make him a steal at this price regardless of opponent. Well Cook is facing the Detroit Lions this week. The Lions defense gives up 133.8 rushing yards per game – making them the 6th worst unit in the NFL. Start Dalvin Cook against the Lions – it will pay off.
David Johnson ($7.8K) vs Giants: David Johsnon continues being one of the best dual threat RBs in the league. Johnson is the lead back on one of the fastest paced teams in the NFL averaging 5.8 yards per touch & has scored 5 TD so far. The Cardinals are also facing the Giants this week which is good news for Johnson. The Giants have given up 7 rushing TDs (tied at 3rd worst) – I’m predicting a TD from Johnson this week. Combine that with his touches per game (18) & offensive pace – I see a big game for David Johnson in week 7.
Leonard Fournette ($7K) vs Bengals: Leonard Fournette is my favorite running back in week 7. Let’s start with his opponent – they stink. The Bengals are easily the worst rushing defense in the NFL – allowing 15 yds per game more than the 2nd worst unit. Even if Fournette was average – he would have tremendous value against this defense. As you can see from the viz – Fournette is far from average. He is 2nd among the 10 most expensive RBs in touches per game per $1k (3.4). Fournette gets a tremendous amount of touches for his price. He also averages 5.5 yards per touch which means he makes the most of his touches. The only downside to Fournette’s game so far has been his lack of TDs. Well guess what – his opponent has given up the most rushing TDs in the league (Bengals have given up 9 rushing TDs in 6 games). Expect Fournette to have a monster week.
Derrick Henry ($5.8K) vs Chargers: I trust in Henry this week – especially at $5.8K. The Titans are starting Ryan Tannehill – which means they are looking for more of a spark from the QB position. Granted Tannehill is not much of an upgrade from Mariota – but he does pose more of a down field threat. This means potentially less people in the box for Henry. I’m going to start Henry this week and hope Tannehill is a slight upgrade from Mariota.
Expensive RBs I Do Not Like For Week 7
Ezekiel Elliott ($8.1K) vs Eagles: I will not be starting Zeke strictly due to the match up. The eagles run D has been the 2nd best rushing D in the NFL (72.8 rushing yards per game). Stay away – there is better value out there.
Austin Ekeler ($6.2K) | Melvin Gordon III ($5.9K) vs Titans: Too much uncertainty with these 2 RBs. They both have the skills to be a RB1 but are not in the correct position. I will be staying away from the Chargers RB situation until there is more clarity. I believe going forward Gordon will be the better choice, but for now I will be choosing neither.
Le’Veon Bell ($6K) vs Patriots: Bell actually leads the NFL in touches per $1K (3.8) – meaning he has had more than enough opportunities to provide value at his price point. Normally this would be a great indication of success but this week is a bit different. The Jets are facing the Patriots & we all know what happens when RBs face the Pats D. The Patriots defense may be the best unit in the NFL – giving up 73.7 rushing yards per game & only 2 rushing TDs. I do not think the Jets O Line will be able to perform well enough for Bell to have a productive game. Stay away from RBs against the Pats this season.
Mid Priced RBs ($5.7K – $4.9K)
Mid Priced RBs I Like For Week 7
Phillip Lindsay ($5.7K) vs Chiefs: Lindsay continues to provide value for the Broncos even if it appears he is splitting carries. Lindsay averages 17 touches per game which is more than enough for him to be productive. He also has scored 4 TDs in 2019. His touches per game per $1K is 3 – which is one of the highest in his salary range. The Broncos are facing the Chiefs – meaning the Broncos will need to score TDs to keep up. I predict Lindsay will have a good game & provide value especially at this price.
Tevin Coleman ($5.6K) vs Redskins: Coleman and Matt Brieda are splitting carries for the 49ers offense – but I believe Coleman is the correct play this week. Over the last 2 weeks he’s averaged 18 touches per game & has scored in both games. It seems Coleman is the preferred goal line back which adds extra value. His opponent, the Washington Redskins, allow 134 yards per game & also have allowed a RB to score in 4 of the last 5 games. Coleman should have a good week 7 but keep an eye on the Coleman / Brieda split going forward.
Devonta Freeman ($5.4K) vs Rams: Freeman appears to be turning back into his old self. Last week he had 22 touches & 2 TDs & is trending in the right direction. This is obviously an unavailable game, but even without the TDs – Freeman provides value. At 3.1 touches per game per $1K – Freeman is a great play at $5.4K. The Rams seem to be trending down, especially their rush D – expect Freeman to have a big game this week.
Josh Jacobs ($5.8K) vs Packers: Josh Jacobs is the most under-rated RB in the NFL. He leads the league with 3.8 touches per game per $1K, averages 5.4 yards per attempt, & appears to be more involved in the passing game as of late. He also is fully healthy – which has not been true for most of 2019. I do not understand why he is priced so low. I imagine after another stellar week – his price will bump up into the expensive category. But for now, take advantage and plug Jacobs into your lineup.
Mid Priced RBs I Do Not Like For Week 7
Malcolm Brown ($5.7K) vs Falcons: The uncertainty of Todd Gurley (quad) and Malcolm Brown (ankle) make both players unplayable this week. If Gurley plays, Brown will not have the touches to provide value. Even if Gurley does not play – we have no idea how healthy Brown is – stay away.
Matt Breida ($5.3K) vs Redskins: Brieda is talented, but unfortunately it appears Tevin Coleman has usurped him as RB1 for the 49ers. See write-up above if you want to know why Coleman is a better pick than Breida.
Damien Williams ($5.2K) | LeSean McCoy ($5K) vs Broncos: Another situation where RBs are splitting carries. Although the Chiefs score a lot of TDs every week – it is very difficult to predict which RB will go off. I personally do not like high risk plays so I will be staying away from both RBs this week. If you are looking for a flyer that can put up big points – I lean closer to McCoy than Williams. I will not be starting either this week at this price point.
Cheap RBs ($4.8K – $4.3K)
Cheap RBs I Like For Week 7
Royce Freeman ($4.7K) vs Chiefs: Freeman has been solid while splitting time with Lindsay. Even though he has not scored a TD – hes found a way to be productive (averaging 5 yds per touch). The Chiefs run defense STINKS – so I will take a flyer on Royce putting up a TD against the Chiefs. I think hes a good cheap Flex option.
Carlos Hyde ($5.6K) vs Redskins: Hyde is not as involved in the passing game as we would like but still averages 3.7 touches per $1K. Giving him tremendous value at this price point. Add in the fact that he has scored in 3 of the last 4 games & the Redskins terrible run D (134 yds per game). Hyde is a great RB2 / Flex option at this price.
Ask me any questions about Data, Visuals, DFS, etc. on Twitter (@StephenDataViz) or Instagram (@StephenDataViz)
