Welcome to the inaugural NFL Daily Fantasy Preview. My plan is to preview the upcoming DFS week utilizing statistics, metrics, & analytics. I’ll take those numbers & create a series of visuals to highlight interesting trends / stats about various positions and players. Continue reading as I take a deep dive into the WR / TE position or if you want to just scroll through and look at the pictures – i bolded a few key statements to allow you to follow along as well.
The week’s viz is a scatter plot that utilizes % of team targets (x-axis) & average fantasy points (y-axis) to understand what WRs / TEs are being targeted the most & which of those WRs can turn those targets into fantasy points.
Wide Receivers: The highlighted wide receivers all receive > 27% of their teams total targets (total team targets = targets / pass attempts). This means that more than 1/4 of the time the QB drops back to pass – these WRs will be targeted. Out of these WRs – Sammy Watkins, Marquise Brown, & Odell Beckham all fall above the trend line – meaning they have been the most successful at turning targets into fantasy points. Keenan Allen, Deandre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Jamison Crowder, & Cooper Kupp all receive > 27% of team targets, but fall below the trend line. Remember though, we are working with a very small sample size (2 games), so don’t take these trends as truth. The most important thing to come from this viz is that these highlighted WRs will receive a high % of total team targets week in and week out – meaning they will have more than enough opportunities to put up points.
Tight Ends: The highlighted tight ends all receive > 25% of their teams total targets (total team targets = targets / pass attempts). This means that more than 1/4 of the time the QB drops back to pass – these TEs will be targeted. Out of these TEs- only Mark Andrews & Evan Engram fall above the trend line – meaning they have been the most successful at turning targets into fantasy points. These two TEs have been the most consistent through 2 weeks. Zach Ertz, George Kittle, Darren Waller, & Delanie Walker all receive > 25% of team targets, but fall below the trend line. These TEs all receive a high amount of targets – so depending on match-up & QB play – these TEs have the potential to have big weeks. Regardless, they should receive the proper amount of targets to have consistent weeks.
Now that we have established what % of team targets means & why it is important for TEs & WRs, lets look at both positions a little closer.
Wide Receivers
The chart below shows the 40 most expensive WRs (DK) & the % of team targets each player receives. The color of the bar is based on yards per target (blue is good & orange is bad). Why do we use yards per target for the color? It shows which receivers are able to produce big plays while also receiving the proper amount of targets per game. The width of the bar is based on QB TDs – if your QB stinks – its tough to be a good WR. If you’re looking at the viz – the long, wide, blue bars are the WRs that have the best set up. This means that these players receive more than enough targets, turn those targets into big plays, & have a QB that is capable of throwing TD passes. With that said there is value within this entire chart.
Wide Receivers I Would Target:
Expensive: Odell Beckham Jr. ($7.7K) | Amari Cooper ($7.5K) | Keenan Allen ($7K)
Medium: Chris Godwin ($6.9K) | Adam Thielen ($6.7K) | Kenny Golladay ($6.6K)
Cheapish: Marquise Brown ($5.9K) | Cooper Kupp ($5.4K)
Wide Receivers I Would Not Target:
Patriots WRs – Too many mouths to feed in this group to feel confident picking any of the trio of Brown, Edelman, or Gordon – stay away.
Expensive: Michael Thomas ($7.4K) | JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6.9K) | Sammy Watkins ($6.8K)
Not Expensive: Robert Woods ($6.2K) | Stefon Diggs ($6K) | Allen Robinson ($5.6K)
Tight Ends
The chart below shows the 25 most expensive TEs (DK) & the % of team targets each player receives. The color of the bar is based on yards per target (blue is good & orange is bad). If your’e looking at the viz – the long, wide, blue bars are the TEs that are set up for success. This means that these players receive more than enough targets, turn those targets into big plays, & have a QB that is capable of throwing TD passes. To me, tight end is a tricky situation. Travis Kelce is far and above the most expensive TE – rightfully so – but who knows if he will be worth the price every week. Personally I don’t like to spend on TE so here is who I like and why:
Tight Ends I Would Target:
Mark Andrews ($4.6K) leads all tight ends in percent of team targets (27%) & yards per target (12.9)- sounds like the perfect combo to me.
Darren Waller ($4.1K) is a value play at only $4.1K. He has the potential to put up big plays and will receive a high % of targets. If Carr could throw some TDs – Waller will be a stellar play – for now he has good value at his price.
Greg Olsen ($3.7K) is a big part of the Carolina offense & with Cam Newton’s various injuries – he will receive a high volume of targets each week. Olsen is a great play, until he inevitably gets hurt – play him while he’s hot.
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