Joey’s AFC Championship Showdown Throwdown -Patriots @ Chiefs
Well here we go, we are one game from the super bowl and once again we have the number 1 and 2 seeds in the AFC facing each other. I guess the first round bye really does help a lot. We had 2 upsets in the Wildcard round but the home teams took care of business in the Divisional round. We’ve got another year of Tom Brady in the AFC Championship a feat he’s achieved 13 out of 17 years he’s played the whole season. As much as I hate the Patriots and the success they’ve had over the years let’s just stop and appreciate what this man has been able to achieve over his career. The past 2 years everyone thought he was done and the Patriots wouldn’t make it far but another year has passed and the Patriots are on the 8th straight AFC Championship game and we have to watch the GOAT play. This game might go down in history as one of the best AFC Championship games between the GOAT and a future superstar.
Vegas Insight: 56 game total with Kansas City 3 point favorites
Weather: Cold (mid 20s) but not much wind, little chance of rain
We could see both QBs easily hit over 25+ if this game goes anything like before.
Patrick Mahomes: Here it is, it’s the biggest game of his career and we saw he step and play great in his first postseason game. He set the record this for fantasy points. He went for 350 and 4 touchdowns the last time he played. There’s not a ton I need to convince you on with this play but just my favorite stack. A nice contrarian stack would be Watkins and Kelce with Mahomes and fade Hill but It’s possible to stack the entire offense and go Watkins Kelce and Hill. There will be plenty of mid tier options that you will be giving up if you stack on DK. It’s a perfect stack for FD with Mahomes at MVP.
Tom Brady: He’s not one of my top options on DK but on FD I really like him especially as a correlation play in the MVP. Chiefs defense has been much better towards the end of the season, but their success has been accredited to getting pressure on the QB. Patriots have had one of the better lines in the league only allowing 21 sacks all year. They were able to control Bosa and Ingram and Brady torched the Chargers. If the line can control the game the Patriots will tear this team apart. I like him mostly as a stack option: Brady White Edelman with either hogan or Gronk.
James White: We’ve got playoff James White back and in full effect. Last game he tied the NFL playoffs record for receptions in a game with 15 which was set by fellow receiving running back Darren Sproles. The crazy thing is James White had 14 receptions in the super bowl victory against Atlanta 2 years ago. White has been relied on
Damien Williams: I’ve got all 3 running backs featured in this article. I know we’ve got some of the best QBs in the game going at each other, but don’t count out a running back stack. Since Williams has taken over as the starter in Kansas City after the injury to Ware he has 29+ DK points in 3 of the 4 games. With the cold weather being an issue and we saw last week that the Chiefs are completely fine giving him 25 carries and 30 touches he could easily be the highest scoring player on the slate.
Sony Michel: I know what you are thinking Joey you already put James White in your article Can you play both in one lineup? The answer is of course. We saw last week how stacking both in one lineup was a huge edge to the slate when they both went off. These 2 running backs don’t eat into each other’s production. They are both way too cheap for the upside they provide in this matchup. I can guarantee you that either one or both of these guys will be in the perfect lineup tonight. The Chiefs are allowing the 2nd most yards per carry at 5.0 last week Michel was able to get 5.375 yards per carry against the Chargers last week and has averaged 4.5 yards per carry this year. So a nice bump for him.
They are all excellent CPT candidates. I would play James White in CPT over Williams and Michel just because of price. White is my top overall play on this slate.
Sammy Watkins: He saw 8 targets last week in his first real game back with the team. 5 out of 7 full games he saw 5+ targets. In those games he got 10+ fantasy points in those contests. He will probably go over looked in this matchup and he will be a low owned piece to the passing game.
In a game with a 50+ game total there will be plenty of opportunities for the kickers to score points.
Some interesting stats I look at for kickers:
New England is much better at stopping teams on 3rd down at home compared to away: They allow 32% conversions on 3rd downs which is 3rd best in the NFL, but on the road it’s a much different story. New England stops teams on at a 45% rate on the road which is 6th worst.
New England is the 10th worst team at stopping teams in the redzone on the road allowing teams to score a touchdown at a rate of 66.67%. While Kansas city is the 2nd best team at scoring touchdowns in the NFL scoring on 72% of redzone trips, which doesn’t mean good things for the kickers.
Kansas City is 22nd in the league at stopping teams on 3rd down at home at only 37%, but in the last 3 games they are at 28% so they could be playing their best football as of late.
Kansas City is the middle of the pack in redzone defense allowing a touchdown at home at a rate of 57% while New England scores a touchdown in the redzone on the road on pace to be one of the worse teams at 45%.
These stats all point to Gostkowski being the better kicker to play.
Defense might not be a factor in this game because last time the game ended 43-40 with almost 1000 yards of offense.
Gronk: I never thought he would be in the cheap tier. Gronk is one of the best TEs in NFL history but he hasn’t really been used the past couple games even though his steps and routes haven’t fell a ton. He ran 40 routes which was third on the team behind Edelman and Hogan (46). He only saw one target last game but came up with a huge catch 3rd catch to really the Chargers hopes. I thought we would see much more out of Gronk after Gordon left but that just isn’t the case even though he’s been on the field a ton this could be a great buy low spot for him. The Chiefs are one of the worst defenses vs TEs and you’d be crazy not to even consider him in GPPs.
Chris Hogan: I’m adding way too many Patriots but they are all too cheap. Hogan ran every route that Tom Brady dropped back on and since Gordon stepped away from football Hogan has ran almost 100% of the routes when Brady drops back. He’s only missed 3 routes and that was against the Bills the first game he started and they barely threw the ball.
Monkey Knife Fight Picks
I like all these. They might not all cash but they are great hedges for each other and you should come out profitable if the game doesn’t way under the game total.
Reception Connection: Travis Kelce, Julian Edelman, and James White. 21.5 receptions 2x
Touchdown Dance: Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Sony Michel 7.5 touchdowns 2x
Over/Under 1.8x: Mahomes over 318.5, Brady 272.5 yards, Michel 71.5 yards.
Over/Under 2.16x: Michel over 71.5 rushing yards, Williams over 51.5 rushing yards
I don’t currently like the 5/5s yet I’ll update if I like the new one later so make sure to check in later.