What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my Thursday Night Football Showdown Throwdown article. I hope you had an amazing week 8. Let’s start off week 9 with tons of green on this Thursday Night Football slate! Make sure if you haven’t, subscribe to our NFL Core Plays. Showdowns are fun but make sure you get in on all our prop plays for these showdown slates. I usually run a prop cash play, then GPPs for showdowns. If you haven’t signed up for the prop sites that we are partnered with, check them out. The links are here: MonkeyKnifeFight and PrizePicks. Use promo code: KARMA, these sites have been around for a couple years and are continuously growing in size and being available in more and more states. If you have further questions about the sites, hop in our discord and message me. Our NFL core plays package includes access to all of the expert’s NFL Prop plays. What are you waiting for? Join KARMA NATION today!
Showdown slates are different from normal slates and vary from site to site.
On DraftKings you have a CPT spot with a 1.5x multiplier. This is similar to FanDuel, but the difference is the salary for the CPT scales 1.5x but the MVP spot on FanDuel does not. This will lead to more unique lineups and less ties for DraftKings as compared to FanDuel. This is one of the reasons why I prefer DraftKings showdown slates to FanDuel. On DraftKings, you select five flex spots and one CPT, while on FanDuel you select four flex and one MVP.
Vegas totals
The Packers are 7.5 point favorites tonight against the 49ers. With a 48.5-point game total.
Historical Matchup
The Packers and 49ers have faced off three times over the last two seasons and eight times over the last decade. The 49ers have taken the previous two meetings, and six of the last eight. The 49ers covered six of the last eight, including one pick‘em during that time. These games has gone over the total in five out of eight games, including twice in the last three games.
01/19/20: Packers: 20 49ers: 37 Packers Spread: +8.0 O/U: 46.5
11/24/19: Packers: 08 49ers: 37 Packers Spread: +3.0 O/U: 48.0
10/15/18: Packers: 33 49ers: 30 Packers Spread: -9.0 O/U: 46.5
10/04/15: Packers: 17 49ers: 03 Packers Spread: -7.5 O/U: 48.0
01/05/14: Packers: 20 49ers: 23 Packers Spread: +3.0 O/U: 46.0
09/18/13: Packers: 28 49ers: 34 Packers Spread: +5.0 O/U: 47.0
01/12/13: Packers: 31 49ers: 45 Packers Spread: +3.0 O/U: 45.0
09/09/12: Packers: 22 49ers: 30 Packers Spread: -6.0 O/U: 46.5
12/05/10: Packers: 34 49ers: 16 Packers Spread: -9.0 O/U: 41.0
Quarterbacks
The 49ers will start Nick Mullens again tonight. Now that Jimmy G is seeing his way to the IR, Mullens could potentially start the remainder of the season. Although Mullens steps into a tough situation, the 49ers will be missing many key pieces. This includes Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne, George Kittle, and Jordan Reed. This makes up 1,899 of 2180 receiving yards for the team, and 10 out of their 12 receiving touchdowns. This is a huge blow for a team that was looking to try for another deep run into the playoffs. They will be starting their bench WRs. I am not ready to say lock in Mullens tonight, whereas, if this was a healthy 49ers roster, I would.
In eight games as a starter in 2018, he averaged 284.5 passing yards per game, while finishing 3-5 as a starter. Five of those games, he took at least three sacks. In 2018, he actually was one of the most accurate QBs in the league, even with his perceived gunslinger mentality. He had an off-target throw on only 13.2% of his passes, which was 5th best in the league that year.
Nick Mullens has already seen the field in three games. He started in weeks 3 and 4, as well as coming in for the second half last week. He had similar success to his 2018 campaign. He threw for an average of 271.5 yards in those two games he started. On top of that, he came in for Jimmy G last week against the Seahawks in the second half, and put up an astounding 235 passing yards, two touchdowns, with no interceptions or sacks in that half. In comparison, Jimmy G put up 84 passing yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and was sacked three times. Arguably, Jimmy is the better QB, but for fantasy purposes, Mullens doesn’t miss a beat when he enters the game.
Mullens gets to take on an underperforming Packers defense tonight. I’m expecting the 49ers to run, but the Packers pass defense is nothing to be scared about. The Packers have had a surprisingly difficult time on defense this year. Maybe, we will have a get right game for Za’Darius Smith and this Packers pass rush, who rank second to last in pressure %. I am not expecting these receivers to get easy separation against the Packers stout corners. Possibly due to the lack of pressures, the Packers are allowing the second worst TD to interception ratio, with an average six touchdowns per one interception. Only the Texans rank worse at 17, and they are tied with the Cowboys for second worst.
Both the 49ers and the Packers rank towards the bottom of the league in plays per game, so expect a low scoring game tonight. The Packers rank last with 58 plays per game and the 49ers rank 4th to last with 60.5. Both these teams also rank towards the middle of the NFL in scoring %. Each team allows a score around 41% of the drives, which includes both field goals and touchdowns.
Discount Double Check
Aaron Rodgers has had his ups and downs this season, which have also correlated with the absence of his star play makers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams. We could potentially get both these players together on the field for the first time since week 6. The trio have played three games together leading to a 3-0 record. In those three games, the Packers averaged 38.3 PPG. Rodgers averaged 310 passing yards per game, and recorded 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions over that stretch as well. He has still been great outside of those games, but just not as good when, of course, you have all your top weapons back.
Rodgers gets the opportunity to pick apart a banged-up 49ers defense, who have played surprisingly well without their three best defensive players. These include: Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, and Soloman Thomas. The team is still able to record a pressure on 26% of drop backs, which ranks 5th best in the league. They are causing opposing quarterbacks to have a hurried throw on 13% of their drop backs, which ranks 3rd best in the league. Unfortunately, they have had trouble converting those pressures into sacks. They rank as one of the worst in the league, converting a pressure into a sack 18.5% of the time. So, even though they have been able to create pressure on opposing QBs, they definitely seem to be feeling the effects of not having Bosa and Thomas.
Running backs
Packers
Both teams will be diving deep into their depth chart at the running back position tonight. The Packers will be without Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillion tonight, due to Covid-19. They could also be potentially without Aaron Jones, who has been limited in practice all week. This would leave the Packers without their top three running backs, leading to Tyler Ervin starting, and newly acquired, Dexter Williams, getting reps too. Ervin has proved to be a factor in the passing game when given the chance. IF Jones is out tonight, both these two players are in play. They are both $200 on DraftKings, so you can include them if you want to play Rodgers, Mullens, and Adams with no salary issues. I love Ervin tonight mainly because of the Packer’s trust in him in the passing game. In 108 offensive snaps this season, he has taken 4 from the backfield, 84 in the slot, and 20 out wide. Clearly, if the Packers are comfortable enough to line him up in the slot in five different games this season, they will be using him heavily in the pass game tonight. Touches in the passing game are way more valuable than rushing attempts. If he can see 4-5 targets this game, he instantly becomes a lock for me tonight.
I am expecting Dexter Williams to take more of the running touches, but still see a time share between the two. Dexter Williams has only played 10 backfield snaps in his short two year career, but has a chance to see more touches this game than he has seen offensive snaps. The 49ers have been great at stopping the run this season, allowing only 105 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. They have also been great at getting to the ball carrier early and often, leading to only 1.39 yards before contact. Hopefully the passing attack for the Packers can open up the running game. They also are on track for positive game script leading to more running opportunities. I prefer Ervin if we are picking between the two. We could easily see Williams just get 10 rushes for 30 yards, while Ervin could get more points from only receptions.
49ers
The 49ers are also a team that is in trouble in the running game. Luckily, whatever running back lines up in the backfield for them is able to generate yards. The 49ers will be without Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, and Tevin Coleman tonight. This trio accounted for 516 of their 857 running back rushing yards. That also accounts for five of their ten running back rushing touchdowns.
The 49ers will be relying on Jerick McKinnon and JaMychal Hasty tonight to get their running game going against one of, if not the worst, rushing defense in the league. The Packers are giving up 119.5 rushing yards per game, 4.7 yards per carry, and 10 rushing touchdowns this season. Packers allow 34% of their total yards as rushing yards. The Packers just allowed Dalvin Cook to destroy them through the air and on the ground. The Packers are allowing the most receiving yards to running backs in the league.
The 49ers run the ball 44% of all plays, which is just above league average of 42%. Surprisingly, they have one of the highest % of passing plays, while trailing in the second half. They pass the ball 77% of the time when trailing within one score, compared to the league average of 65%. With the lack of pass catchers for the 49ers, look for them to design some plays to the running backs to get into open space. Green Bay gives up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs with 28.3. This number is slightly skewed up after Cook dropped over 40 fantasy points on them last week.
49ers Pass Catchers
So… where should I start? The injury bug has not been kind to the 49ers. They have lost a couple pass catchers to injuries over the last couple games. Notably, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk are all out tonight. This is in addition to all of the other injuries that have been mentioned above. They need everything they can out of these guys to compete with the Packers offense. The Packers defense has its holes, so they can definitely take advantage of this.
The 49ers will be trotting out Trent Taylor and Richie James, as there two main guys tonight. They also have Kevin White, River Cracraft, and Chris Frinke on the practice squad. So, we need to monitor who gets activated. It could end up as a guessing game who does the best out of these random guys.
Trent Taylor seems to favor the slot this year, 62% of his snaps (103 out of 164) have been from the slot. Chandler Sullivan has been great at preventing receptions to slot WRs. He is only allowing a target every 7.0 snaps and a receptions every 9.7 snaps. This ranks 5th and 8th respectively. Although he does give up barely any receptions,(less than two per game) he is allowing 1.48 yards per snap, and 10.3 yards after catch per reception.
Richie James lines up normally on the outside. We have seen him line up 61% of the time on the left, and 39% on the right. He has yet to see a slot snap this year, even though he ran the slot 35% of the time in previous years. I am not expecting Jaire Alexander to follow anyone around this game, he prefers the LCB spot. This will have him lineup up against the RWR. So, he should be lined up on Alexander some of the game, but not the entire time.
Ross Dwelley may need to be an important part of the offense tonight. The 49ers will be without George Kittle and Jordan Reed tonight. Dwelley has never been a starting TE in the league, he has played in 35 games and only has 23 receptions, 175 yards and three touchdowns in his career. Six receptions, 70 yards and one of those touchdowns came this year. He was able to score a touchdown last week against the Seahawks after Kittle left the game. Tonight he has a tough matchup against Kamal Martin. He is only allowing a reception on 11% of his routes covered, and a 67% catch rate. He has a similar build as Dwelley too, so he doesn’t get that end zone advantage I like from TEs. I will probably be fading him tonight with the little touchdown upside I see from him.
P.S don’t sleep on Kyle Juszczyk. He is currently their second leading receiving option that is active tonight.
Packers Pass Catchers
The Packers have been fairly easy to predict this season when Adams is playing. Davante Adams has been one of the best WRs and fantasy WRs in the league this year. He has only played in five games this season. One those games he played less than 50% of the snaps after going down with an injury, and is WR7 on the season in full PPR format. He is leading all WRs in points per snap with 0.47. Second place is only at 0.35 fantasy points per snap, so he has a huge lead on the field.
Adams has been playing at an insane rate this season. He is running a route on 95% of Rodgers drop backs. He has a 35% target share, and catches 40% of Rodgers completions. Adams has accounted for 42% of Rodgers passing yards and 63% of the passing touchdowns, in the four full games he played this season. While this seems unsustainable, Rodgers really doesn’t like any of his other WRs, so until they triple team Adams, he should continue to force feed Adams targets.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling hasn’t been that involved in the offense, even with the lack of pass catchers for the Packers. MVS is mainly a deep threat, so he can be a boom or bust option in your fantasy lineups tonight. In showdowns, there is nothing wrong with taking a shot on this guy. I will mention that his floor is close to zero. We have seen Rodgers continually have a misconnection with him, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes the night with two or three targets and zero receptions. Especially with the pressure the 49ers are able to create, Rodgers won’t have time to let Valdes-Scantling’s routes to develop enough to throw to him.
Equanimeous St. Brown came back to life last week. St Brown hadn’t had a chance all year to be involved in the offense. Last week he saw 22 offensive snaps. 13 of those came from the slot with 9 coming from out wide. In contrast, he saw 10 snaps week 6 and 3 snap week 7. The 2018 sixth round pick may finally be on the same page as Rodgers. He saw three targets last week, including back to back targets on a drive.
We can see the confidence growing between St. Brown and Rodgers. Look for a potential buy low spot for him, as he should be Rodgers third favorite target tonight. At only $1,200, he provides great ownership leverage, with people flooding to Dexter Williams at $200, Richie James at $200, Tyler Ervin at $200, and Trent Taylor at $400. He is not the optimal route, but provides similar upside to the other cheap players at much lower ownership.
Robert Tonyan has really emerged as a top TE option every week. He is TE5 on the season, and TE4 since starting in week 2. This is including a bye week for the Packers. Tonyan is tied for first on the season for TE touchdowns, with five, while only being 17th among TEs in targets with 26. Tonyan’s run seems a little unsustainable, but that is the case with Adams as well. This is what happens when Rodgers doesn’t really trust anyone else in his offense. This leads to concentrated usage rates and touchdowns. Tonyan ranks 12th among TEs in red zone targets and 7th in end zone targets. He has managed to convert both of those into first among touchdowns in the red zone and end zone. With Rodgers as your QB it is easy to be that efficient.
The downside of Tonyan is every touchdown came with Adams out of the lineup. In games Adams played, Tonyan is 21st in targets, 17th in receptions, 11th in yards, 3rd in aDOT among TEs. He had 12 targets, 10 receptions, 136 yards, an aDOT of 9.83, zero touchdowns, and one red zone target. He came in at 17th among TEs in fantasy points, with only 5.9 fantasy points per game.
