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QB/RB/TE Stack
Matt Ryan/Devonta Freeman/Austin Hooper
The Atlanta Falcons may be due for a bit of positive scoring regression in 2019, as they rank 10th in the NFL in total yards (380.8) per game, while ranking only 20th in points (20.4) per game. They get an elite matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, who are giving up 408 total yards and 27.6 points per game thus far. The Falcons are currently -2.5 point favorites in a game set at 51 points, giving them one of the higher implied team totals this weekend at 26.8 points.
Matt Ryan has been playing at an elite level in terms of fantasy throughout the 2019 season. He’s averaging a healthy 331 passing yards with 2.2 passing touchdowns per game. Ryan’s kryptonite has been interceptions, but that isn’t a huge problem for fantasy. He has scored 25+ fantasy points in three of his last four games, and he’ll benefit greatly from this matchup.
Austin Hooper has been one of his top targets, leading the team in receptions (34) and receiving yards (363), while also ranking second in targets (42) and third in receiving touchdowns (2). He’s tied with Julio Jones with a team-high five red zone targets this season, as well. Hooper leads the slate in fantasy points per game for tight ends, and Arizona has been far and away the worst team in the NFL against tight ends.
Devonta Freeman makes a sneaky option on this slate. He has quietly scored 18 fantasy points in each of his last 2 games, while averaging only 2.5 yards per carry. While I don’t expect Atlanta’s offensive line to get significantly better this week, there is obvious room for improvement, as Freeman owns 4.3 career yards per carry. Most importantly for this stack, he has seen 14 targets over his last 2 games, posting 13 receptions for 112 yards and 1 touchdown. Freeman has seen eight red zone touches this season, and he comes with quiet upside. Regardless of his inefficiencies, he’s seeing more than enough touches to find success in this particular matchup.
QB/WR/WR Stack
Deshaun Watson/DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller
The Houston Texans have seen a few ups and downs in terms of their passing offense through five games this season. They’re currently averaging 252.4 passing yards per game. They have also totaled 11 touchdowns with only two interceptions. Houston gets a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are surprisingly only allowing 237.2 passing yards per game. They have also given up only seven passing touchdowns, while recording four interceptions this season. The Texans are +5 point underdogs in a game set at 54.5 points this week, but they still feature an implied team total of 24.8 points.
Deshaun Watson has traded off elite performances with duds this season. He owns three games this season with 30+ fantasy points, and he’s coming off of a 44.74 fantasy point performance against the Atlanta Falcons. Overall, Watson is averaging 272.8 passing yards per game, while also recording 11 passing touchdowns. He has added 122 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground, as well.
DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller have been the clear focal points of the passing attack this season. Hopkins hasn’t enjoyed the elite season many were expecting, but he has posted 31 receptions for 347 yards and 2 touchdowns on 44 targets. He has only seen two red zone targets in 2019, turning those in two touchdowns. Hopkins gets a matchup against Bashaud Breeland (see my WR/CB Matchups article), and this could be his breakout week.
Fuller is coming off of a 56.7 fantasy point performance. He was also tackled at the one-yard-line twice in that game. Through 5 weeks, Fuller owns 28 receptions for 400 yards and 3 touchdowns. Unsurprisingly, Hopkins and Fuller have combined for 52.9% of the team’s targets, 53.6% of receptions, 54.8% of receiving yards, and 45.5% of receiving touchdowns. Houston will likely need to throw the ball throughout this game, and this stack comes with as much upside as any on the slate.
QB/WR/TE Stack
Patrick Mahomes/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce
The Kansas City Chiefs continue to boast the most prolific passing attack in the NFL, as they lead the league with 356 passing yards per game. They have also recorded 11 passing touchdowns without posting any interceptions. The Chiefs get a plus matchup against the Houston Texans this weekend, as the latter has given up 270.4 passing yards per game to go along with 8 passing touchdowns and only 2 interceptions this season. Kansas City is a -5 point favorite in a game set at 54.5 points, and they own the highest implied team total on the slate at 29.8 points.
Patrick Mahomes continues to play at an elite level, flashing a 20 fantasy point floor to go along with a 35+ fantasy point ceiling. He’s averaging 366.2 passing yards and 2.2 passing touchdowns per game through 5 games. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s as safe of a quarterback as there is in fantasy football.
Kansas City has dealt with plenty of injuries this season, leaving Travis Kelce to be his top target thus far. Kelce leads the team with 43 targets, 28 receptions, and 439 receiving yards. He has also caught one touchdown in 2019. Most importantly, Kelce leads the team with seven red zone targets, although he has yet to score in the red zone. He has found a decent amount of success in 2019, but we haven’t truly seen his ceiling at this point.
Tyreek Hill has played less than a full game this season due to injury, but there is optimism that he’ll return to action this week. Last season, Hill averaged 5.4 receptions for 92.4 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 8.6 targets per game. He comes with elite upside on any given slate, though. If Hill doesn’t suit up this weekend, he can be replaced in this stack with Sammy Watkins. If Watkins isn’t able to play, Byron Pringle makes a solid option for his current price tag.
High Upside GPP Stack
Kyler Murray/David Johnson/Larry Fitzgerald
The Arizona Cardinals haven’t exactly featured the dominant offense that was being touted prior to the season, as they are averaging 363.8 total yards and 20 points per game through five weeks this season. Arizona pushes the pace in their games, though, and they get an elite matchup against the Atlanta Falcons this week. Atlanta is allowing 378.2 total yards and 30.4 points per game in 2019. The Cardinals are +2.5 point underdogs in a game set at 51 points, and they possess an implied team total of 24.3 points this weekend.
Kyler Murray has flashed both consistency and upside early in his NFL career. He has scored 19+ fantasy points in four of his five games, while also scoring 25+ fantasy points in two of those games. He’s averaging 264.8 passing yards with 4 passing touchdowns this season. Murray has also added 206 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground through 5 games.
Larry Fitzgerald continues to find success, posting 29 receptions for 358 yards and 2 touchdowns on 44 targets. He also leads Arizona with seven red zone targets in 2019. The Cardinals have stated that they’re going to play it safe with Christian Kirk, meaning they may be planning for him to sit out once again this week. If that’s the case, Fitzgerald could play a big role in the offense once again.
David Johnson is currently questionable for the game this week. He has quietly found success in 2019, averaging 52.8 yards and 0.2 touchdowns on only 12.8 carries per game. He has also posted 24 receptions for 247 yards and 2 touchdowns on 33 targets this season. Excluding his game against the Baltimore Ravens, Johnson is averaging 21.2 fantasy points per game this season. If Johnson is forced to miss this game, Chase Edmonds will slide into the starting role, and he’ll make an elite option.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
