NFL DFS Week 3 – Bales’ Top Stacks
Matt Ryan/Tevin Coleman/Julio Jones
The Atlanta Falcons have featured an average offense early this season, as they are averaging 370.5 total yards and 21.5 points per game thus far. It’s no secret that the Falcons feature a better offense at home, and they were able to score 31 points in Atlanta last week after struggling with 12 points in Philadelphia the week before. They get a matchup against the New Orleans Saints, who are allowing their points to total 428 yards and 33 points per game against them through two weeks. The Falcons are currently -3 point favorites in a game set at 53 points, giving them an implied total of 28 points this week.
Matt Ryan is a quarterback that has always performed better in Atlanta, as he’s averaging 261.4 passing yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns at home, while seeing a significant spike in quarterback rating. He also scored 31.7 DK points in his only home game this season, although that is inflated by two rushing touchdowns. His favorite target has been Julio Jones, who owns a 41.8% target share this season. He has recorded more than three times as many targets as the next player – Austin Hooper. Jones has also displayed elite upside this season, scoring 31 DK points against the Eagles without finding the end zone. Tevin Coleman is the final part of the stack, and he adds a bit of consistency. He has taken over with Devonta Freeman injured, although he is seemingly questionable this week after being expected to miss multiple games. In his only starts, Coleman recorded 125 yards on 20 touches (four receptions), although he failed to find the end zone. If Freeman is ruled out, Coleman makes a safe addition to this stack.
Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams/Randall Cobb
The Green Bay Packers are in a bit of an odd spot. They haven’t played two full games with Aaron Rodgers, but they still rank 11th in the NFL with 277 passing yards per game. They also faced a dominant Minnesota Viking’s defense in their only game with Rodgers for four quarters. They also get a matchup against the Washington Redskins, who are allowing only 161 passing yards per game, but that number is a bit skewed because of their matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Overall, Green Bay is a -3 point favorite in a game set at 45.5 points, and they feature an implied total of 24.3 points in this game.
Aaron Rodgers needed a bit over a half to throw for 286 yards and three touchdowns against the Chicago Bears in their season opener. He then saw a tougher matchup against Minnesota, throwing for 281 yards and one touchdown in a tie. While he was injured for that game, he still will be, so we need to prepare for that once again this week. Davante Adams and Randall Cobb have been the two main targets for Rodgers, as they have combined for 36 targets (46.8% target share) through two games. They have also combined for 26 receptions, 324 yards, and three touchdowns. I have outlined Cobb’s matchup in my WR/CB Matchups article, adding to his value. Adams doesn’t get nearly as good of a matchup, but he’s a clear red zone threat, as he has scored a touchdown in each of the first two games this season. If you’re looking for a bit more leverage in tournaments, adding Geronimo Allison is a great option, but I’m siding with the two major receiving targets in this offense.
Patrick Mahomes/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce
The Kansas City Chiefs are averaging a healthy 289 passing yards per game, but more importantly, they have recorded a league-high 10 passing touchdowns through only two games. They are also averaging 10.6 yards per attempt, which ranks second in the NFL behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kansas City gets a matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, who rank eighth last in the NFL in passing yards allowed (278 per game), while fourth last in passting touchdowns allowed (5). The Chiefs are -6.5 point favorites in a game set at 56 points, giving them the highest implied total on the slate at 31.3 points.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 582 yards and 10 touchdowns through only two starts. He has scored 41.84 and 28.34 DK points in those two games, as well. He simply cannot continue his ridiculous touchdown rate, but he still comes with more than enough potential to be considered on this slate. Tyreek Hill continues to post video game-like numbers on limited opportunities for Kansas City. He has needed only 14 targets through two games to record 12 receptions for 259 yards and three touchdowns. He’s also averaging a healthy 32.7 DK points per game. Travis Kelce saw six targets in the Kansas City opener, but caught only one of them for six yards. He bounced back last week, catching seven of 10 targets for 109 yards and two touchdowns. It’s clear that both Hill and Kelce can dominate in the same game, and they have the potential to do that this week. At some point, regression will happen for this offense, but until then, they make up arguably the highest upside offense on the entire slate.
High Upside GPP Stack
Deshaun Watson/DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller
The Houston Texans struggled in their first game this season, but they somewhat bounced back against the Tennessee Titans. In their second game, Houston was healthier, as they saw the addition of Will Fuller help tremendously. This week, they get a matchup against the New York Giants, who are allowing only 164 passing yards per game. With that being said, they have yet to face an offense that doesn’t rely heavily on passing. The Texans are -6 point favorites in a game set at only 41.5 points, and they feature an implied run total of 23.8 points.
Deshaun Watson struggled in his first game, but bounced back last week, throwing for 310 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Most importantly, he has rushed for 40+ yards in each game this season, showing that he still comes with rushing potential after a terrible injury last season. His top two targets were DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, who combined for 14 receptions, 223 yards, and two touchdowns on 20 targets. Hopkins also posted an 8/78 line against the New England Patriots without Fuller healthy. This trio combined for 81.1 DK points in a game where they only scored 17 points. If their offense clicks during this week, the sky is the limit for a trio that could potentially go overlooked in this matchup.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)