Welcome to the Week 5 edition of Bales’ Top Stacks. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL stacking options for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games, although I will be including my favorite StatHero stack at the bottom of the article. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Gardner Minshew/James Robinson/D.J. Chark
Minshew struggled on Thursday Night Football against the Miami Dolphins but has found plenty of success in 2020. Through 4 games, he boasts 1,138 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions on 147 pass attempts. He also owns 69 rushing yards this season. Minshew has quietly posted 20+ fantasy points in 3 of his 4 games, including a 28.46 fantasy point performance against the Tennessee Titans. He gets a matchup against the Houston Texans, who are allowing only 211.5 passing yards per game. That’s from a lack of volume, though, as they are allowing 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt and a 6.1% touchdown rate. The Jacksonville Jaguars are currently +6.5 point underdogs in a game set at 54 points, giving them an implied team total of 23.8 points.
Robinson has only played 59.5% of the offensive snaps in 2020, but he played 76% of the snaps last week, suggesting his role is continuing to grow. He’s totaled 285 yards and 3 touchdowns on 60 rushing attempts. Robinson also owns 14 receptions for 161 yards on 15 targets in the passing game. He’s the preferred red zone option, recording 83.3% of the Jaguars red zone carries this season. The only carry he didn’t receive went to Laviska Shenault rather than another running back. Robinson gets an elite matchup against Houston, who is allowing a league-high 181.8 rushing yards per game. They’ve also given up 6 rushing touchdowns while allowing their opponents to record 4.9 yards per carry.
Chark has dealt with injuries this season, playing in only three of four games thus far. Still, he owns 15 receptions for 204 yards and 3 touchdowns on 16 targets. He’s been ultra-efficient with the volume only coming last week. In that game, he posted an 8/95/1 line on 9 targets (29.5 fantasy points) against the Cincinnati Bengals. Even with playing limited games, Chark owns 17.3% of the Jaguars’ air yards while recording a 13.6 aDOT. He ranks second on the team with 3 red zone targets, turning them into 3 receptions for 19 yards and 3 touchdowns. Chark has looked elite when given the opportunities this season, and it won’t be long before he’s leading the team in targets on a per-game basis. Now healthy, his role will continue to grow, making Chark one of the best options on this slate and a must-start in a Jacksonville stack.
Carolina Panthers
Teddy Bridgewater/Robby Anderson/D.J. Moore
Bridgewater has thrown for 1,147 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on 141 pass attempts through 4 games. He’s added 70 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground, as well. Bridgewater is coming off of his best game of the season, scoring 27.24 fantasy points against the Arizona Cardinals. He gets an ideal matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, who are allowing 341.5 passing yards per game in 2020. They have also allowed a league-high 13 passing touchdowns while giving up 9.4 adjusted yards per completion this season. The Carolina Panthers are currently +2 point underdogs in a game set at 54.5 points, but they boast an implied team total of 26.3 points.
Anderson has been the top receiver for Carolina this season, turning 34 targets into 28 receptions for 377 yards and 1 touchdown. He ranks second in offensive snap percentage (72%), though. Anderson has seen 35.4% of the team’s air yards in 2020, recording 326 air yards with a 9.6 aDOT. He’s also the preferred red zone receiver, posting 2 receptions for 16 yards on 5 red zone targets, although he has yet to score inside-the-20. Anderson will continue to be one of the two major focal points at receiver.
Moore is the other focal point of the receiving group. He’s played a team-high 83.2% offensive snaps, although he’s been extremely inefficient. Moore has turned 32 targets into 18 receptions for 288 yards without finding the end zone. He’s seen 397 air yards with a 12.4 aDOT, though. Overall, Moore boasts 42.7% of the team’s air yards in 2020. Surprisingly, he only owns one red zone target, failing to do anything with it. Moore is likely to be a more efficient option as he plays more with his new quarterback, allowing him to see plenty of positive regression. Overall, Anderson and Moore boast 78.1% of Carolina’s air yards, giving you the majority of the upside in this offense outside of red zone threat Mike Davis.
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray/Kenyan Drake/DeAndre Hopkins
Murray has been an outstanding fantasy option in 2020, throwing for 919 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions on 144 pass attempts. He also owns 265 yards and 4 touchdowns on 32 carries through 4 games. He’s posted 24+ fantasy points in each of those games, as well. Murray gets a matchup against the New York Jets, who are allowing 239.8 passing yards per game in 2020. They are giving up 7.4 adjusted yards per attempts, as well, while allowing 7 passing touchdowns. The Arizona Cardinals -7.5 point favorites in a game set at 46.5 points, and they feature an implied team total of 27 points this weekend.
Drake has struggled early this season, totaling 254 yards and 1 touchdown on 67 carries through 4 games. He’s seen only 5 targets, turning those into 5 receptions for 20 yards. He has yet to top 15 fantasy points in any game thus far. Drake has given way to Chase Edmonds in red zone targets but still holds a 12/3 lead over him in red zone carries. He’s likely to get more involved in the offense, though, as he’s playing 67.3% of the offensive snaps in 2020. Drake also gets a great matchup against the Jets, who are allowing 129 rushing yards per game to go along with 4.2 yards per carry and 6 rushing touchdowns this season. Drake is far from safe, but the breakout is coming.
Hopkins quickly gelled with his new team, playing 95% of the offensive snaps this season. He’s one of the top receivers in the NFL, posting 39 receptions for 397 yards and 1 touchdown on 46 targets. Hopkins has only seen 317 air yards with a 6.9 aDOT, allowing him to continue to be an efficient option in the passing game. Overall, he’s seen 30.4% of the team’s air yards in 2020. Oddly enough, Hopkins has only seen a trio of red zone targets this season, posting 3 receptions for 11 yards and 1 touchdown. His ability to dominate games without scoring gives him one of the highest ceilings on the slate. Most importantly for this game, the Jets and Cardinals currently rank third and fifth in the NFL in seconds per play, suggesting this game will be played at a blazing speed, adding to the potential of both offenses.
StatHero
The most important note for StatHero is their scoring system. It’s different from what you’re likely used to, and we need to note what the most important aspects are. Quarterbacks are far and away the most important position, specifically passing yards. They get 0.05 fantasy points for every 1 passing yard compared to only 0.1 fantasy points per 1 rushing or receiving yard. For instance, a quarterback would receive 15 fantasy points for 300 yards passing. He would need 3.75 passing touchdowns to reach that. Running backs and receivers would need 1,50 yards to hit that number. They would need 2.5 touchdowns to score 15 fantasy points.
Tight ends are another major part of their scoring. They will receive 1.5 fantasy points per reception while running backs and wide receivers only receive 1 fantasy point per reception. With StatHero’s current scoring system, it could be a key to stack a team with a dominant quarterback and tight end pairing to go along with the other options on the offense.
The final scoring that could make or break your lineup is the distance bonus. Quarterbacks receive a slightly smaller bonus for long passing touchdowns, while running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends get a bit more of a bonus for touchdowns. Ultimately, you want touchdowns to come from 10+ yards out, which is the distance the bonus’ starts at.
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott/Ezekiel Elliott/Amari Cooper
The Dallas Cowboys are the obvious stack for StatHero once again. It now comes down to stacking the right players. Prescott continues to play at an elite level, totaling 1,690 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on 201 pass attempts. He owns 86 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground through 4 games, as well. Prescott gets a matchup against the New York Giants, who are only allowing 221.5 passing yards per game in 2020. With that being said, they are allowing 7.9 adjusted yards per attempt while giving up 7 passing touchdowns. The Cowboys are -9.5 point favorites in a game set at 54 points, giving them one of the highest implied team totals on the slate at 31.8 points.
Elliott has played 88.7% of the offensive snaps this season, recording 273 yards and 3 touchdowns on 70 carries. He’s turned 30 targets into 23 receptions for 159 yards and 1 touchdown, as well. Elliott currently ranks third in the NFL in red zone carries (17). He’s also seen a pair of red zone targets this season. The Giants are allowing 106.8 rushing yards per game, although they have held their opponents to 3.6 yards per carry. New York has also given up four rushing touchdowns in 2020, and Dallas will likely rely heavily on Elliott in the later parts of this game.
Cooper quietly leads the NFL in targets (49) this season. He’s turned those into 37 receptions for 401 yards and 1 touchdown through 4 games. Cooper has seen 470 air yards with a 9.6 aDOT this season, recording 29.7% of Dallas’ air yards. He ranks second on the team with three red zone targets, although he hasn’t caught any of them. Cooper owns 9+ targets in each of his 4 games this season, and he’ll continue to be Prescott’s favorite option. He’s a lock in a Dallas stack on this slate.
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