What’s up Karma Nation and welcome into my fifth game-by-game breakdown of the season. This is my third season doing this article, so if you’ve read it before welcome back, and if you’r new, grab a seat! I will also be covering cash games for both FanDuel and Draftkings on Fridays, and doing an NFL Final Thoughts cheat sheet each week as well…let’s get it!
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Ravens 24, Steelers 20
Quarterback- I’m kicking off Week 5 with one of my absolute favorite spots in tournaments…Lamar Jackson. With Patrick Mahomes occupying the Sunday night primetime game, Jackson wins the award for highest-upside at his position this weekend but will fly under the radar given his matchup and the presence of a chalky Deshaun Watson at the top-tier of QB. Despite what this Steelers defense did against the Bengals on Monday night, the Ravens offensive line has done well this season and this does feel like a let-down spot, even at home, after such a dominant win. The Steelers run a very man-heavy defensive scheme, which always bodes well for running Quarterbacks, especially an athlete as dynamic as Lamar Jackson. He’s one of my favorite GPP plays on the entire slate.
Mason Rudolph is being used primarily as a game-manager with a sub-four yard YPA last week, and while I won’t be using him in DFS, this Ravens defense is really banged up and it wouldn’t shock me to see Rudolph keep them in this game…which is even better for Jackson and his ceiling.
Running Back- Mark Ingram has as much touchdown equity as pretty much any other Running Back on this slate, but the tough matchup coupled with his lack of passing game involvement is enough to keep me away in DFS this week. I’ll be hoping for Lamar to keep any close ones for himself. On the other side, we are certainly going to be interested in James Conner after what Nick Chubb did to this defense last week, and after Conner had his best game of the season on Monday Night Football. The problem is, Conner is nursing an ankle injury and we saw in that Cincinnati game just how involved in the offense Jaylen Samuels can get. I expect Samuels to be involved in the game plan again this week, which makes both him and Conner tournament only darts — though either could be used on the other side of a Ravens stack.
Pass Catchers- The two plays I want to talk about here are Hollywood Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Brown ended up being pretty chalky last week, and he put up another dud, which should automatically make us extremely interested in tournaments due to the recency bias. He’s still third-overall in the NFL in air yards, and few receivers in the league are seeing as much volume as Brown is each week. If I’m going to run back a Lamar/Hollywood stack it’s going to be with JuJu Smith-Schuster, who I think will finally post that huge game in Week 5. The Ravens have been really burnable in the slot so far this season, just look at what Jarvis Landry did to them last week, and Smith-Schuster will avoid scrappy Marlon Humphrey coverage as well. Big play after big play burned this ailing Ravens defense last week, and if Earl Thomas is unable to play this week I don’t see that changing.
I’m adding a new section with my preferred stack, in a spot where I will have GPP exposure myself.
Potential Stack: Lamar Jackson, Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster
Cash Game Options: none
GPP Options: Lamar Jackson, Hollywood Brown, Mark Andrews, JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Conner, Jaylen Samuels
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Vikings 24.5, Giants 19
Quarterback- With all of the news surrounding the Vikings and their offense, I’m really interested to see what transpires this weekend in New York. I don’t trust this offense at all to throw the ball, as that didn’t work even in negative game-script against Chicago last week, but with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs both protesting in the media this week, it’s not crazy to think that they will both get fed this weekend. This is one of the best matchups the Vikings will see this season against a banged-up Giants defense, and they won’t be putting pressure on Cousins like the Bears were able to, so perhaps he will have time to pick them out?
Daniel Jones came back to earth last week against the Redskins posting just 14.3 DK points, and this is definitely his toughest matchup yet. The Vikings are going to be tons of pressure on him in this game, and that has be skipping over him in DFS contests.
Running Back- Dalvin Cook continues to be one of the best Running Backs in fantasy football, and he is the lone member of the Vikings that I will classify as cash game playable. We saw him haul in six balls last week, and we know that he has a massive floor whenever he is installed as a favorite. Cook is an amazing play this week in this matchup, but I do have a weird feeling about this game for whatever reason. This is 100% not STAT-BASED, this is just a gut-feeling that I have that the Vikings want to come out and ease the pain of their star wideouts…which could be completely wrong. I have Cook ranked fourth behind CMC, Elliott and David Johnson this week, but if you want to play Cook in your main lineup don’t let me talk you off him, I’m just giving my opinion on the situation and why I think that he could get slightly trolled on Sunday.
Wayne Gallman will continue to dominate the work for the Giants while Saquon Barkley is out, given his usage in the passing game and my rant on volume > real-life playing ability (see out Discord channel or the Cash Process Podcast) he will be in play for me in tournaments, even in a tough matchup like this.
Pass Catchers- Both of Adam Thielen (10th) and Stefon Diggs (22) are inside the top-25 in weighted opportunity rating this season at the WR position according to airyards.com, and as we’ve gone over, the problem is not ability or opportunity, it’s the volume that they’re seeing. The Giants have given up a handful of monster games to opposing receivers already in 2019, and the Vikings devise a plan to get their disgruntled stars the ball this week, it should work out well fantasy-wise. I really am interested in the Vikings stack this week, but it’s clear that it’s GPP only and I do have it ranked behind a few other stacks (BAL/PHI/CIN)…though I will have some exposure in tournaments (see the purple text).
With Golden Tate returning to the mix, I’m most likely going to take a wait and see approach with the Giants receivers because I’m not entirely sure what each of Tate and Sterling Shepard’s roles will look like. I will note on FanDuel Tate is forced into consideration at the minimum price-tag. If I’m looking to run back the Vikings YOLO stack with someone it’s going to be Evan Engram, who remains top-three in targets among Tight Ends heading into Week 5 and has the best matchup on paper of the trio.
Potential Stack: Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Evan Engram
Cash Game Options: Dalvin Cook
GPP Options: Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Kirk Cousins, Wayne Gallman, Evan Engram, Golden Tate (FD ONLY)
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans
Outlook: I pretty much have to break this one down separately, with Josh Allen’s status up in the air, there is just one player I’m interested in from this game and it’s some tournament shares of Derrick Henry. The Bills have a very clear run-funnel defense with one of the most dominant secondaries in the NFL, so it’s clear that the way for the Titans to win this game is to ride Derrick Henry and grind the clock. Henry is averaging 21 touches per game to being 2019, and should come in relatively low-owned with most just Xing this game off their lists. If Josh Allen ends up active, that would change my opinions on this game so check back for updates throughout the weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Panthers 22, Jaguars 19
Quarterback- The Quarterback situation here is messy, and it’s why I’m way more focused on the running game in this contest. #MinshewMania has taken the internet by storm, but he’s being used mainly as a game-manager and is getting by fantasy-wise on 7 touchdown passes, which should regress back down to the mean over time. Kyle Allen was victimized by non-stop pressure from the Texans in Week 4, but if I had to pick a QB from this game it would be him as long as Jalen Ramsey is out for the Jaguars…if Joe Flacco can look good against this defense, Kyle Allen can as well.
Running Back- This is definitely the top place to attack this week, and I have interest in both Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette in all formats. Starting with McCaffrey, I mean, what more can I say here. I predicted he would be under-owned relative to what he should have been heading into last week and that held true when he was around 25-30% less owned than Austin Ekeler in cash games. I doubt people make that mistake again this week, he’s leading the league in touches, and on pace to set the record in yards from scrimmage…jam him in.
Fournette is another player that the secret is out on, I played him in cash games last week and he was super low-owned. He moved up from five to three in routes run among Running Backs, and any inefficiency will continue to be outweighed by the pure volume that he’s seeing. He was trolled by Ryquell Armstead for a touchdown, and is still in line for positive touchdown regression after not finding the end zone again in Week 4. I don’t love this matchup for him overall, but the volume is all that matters and I am on him again in Week 5.
Pass Catchers- The only pass catcher I’m super interested in using here is Curtis Samuel, and that’s mainly because the Jaguars have had a severe issue with allowing big plays through the air this season. He’s a GPP one-off only for me, alongside Greg Olsen who I expect to quietly end up with some ownership at a barren Tight End position this week.
Cash Game Options: Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette
GPP Options: Curtis Samuel, Greg Olsen
New England Patriots @ Washington Redskins
Outlook: I’m breaking this game down differently because I honestly have no idea what to do with it as a whole. We don’t even know who is starting at Quarterback for the Redskins — right now it seems like it will be Colt McCoy, but I can confidently say I am full-fading this Redskins team regardless of who’s under center.
On the Patriots side, with how big the spread, a team stack is definitely in play but it’s really hard to imagine the Redskins scoring many points here and it’s also hard to pick one player as a one-off in tournaments. James White seems like the best bet to me with Sony Michel looking extremely bad and Rex Burkhead ailing, but I can also see Phillip Dorsett or Josh Gordon having a big game on the outside as well. Overall, you can stack Brady with two of those three should you want to, but I’m not in love with this game with some other really good spots on this slate.
Chicago Bears @ Oakland Raiders (LONDON GAME)
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Bears 23, Raiders 18
Quarterback- Everyone knows that weird things happen when NFL games take place in London, and this one should be no exception. Derek Carr has yet to top 17 DraftKings points this season, and now faces the fierce Bears defense where Khalil Mack will certain to be out for revenge…I rest my case. I do want to talk about Chase Daniel however, who is really cheap on all sites. I don’t think the upside is there for tournaments, but for cash games, given his price I do think he is in play. He ultimately isn’t going to make my player pool, but if you LOVE your cash lineup with Daniel in it, I won’t tell you to move it around. This is a bad defense, and he knows the Bears offense well enough to beat value.
Running Back- Yes, yes, yes. David Montgomery SZN…is upon us! Going into this week, I kind of thought Monty could end up semi-popular, but that doesn’t seem to be the case as the week has progressed, making this one of my absolute favorite spots on this slate. Montgomery’s usage has risen each week thus far, he gets goal-line carries, he’s getting more involved in the passing game, they could lean more on him with the backup QB in AND he’s coming off a career-high 24 touches. Phew. This is a Raiders defense that we have picked on all season on the ground, and I think that this is the Montgomery coming out party we have all been waiting for. He is really cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings and I will be overweight to him this week.
Pass Catchers- As you can tell, I’m pretty much just fading the Raiders as a whole. Allen Robinson was his usual solid self even with Daniel in at Quarterback last week, and he can be used as a GPP flier against the Raiders who have had struggles with big plays this season and will now be missing Vontaze Burfict in the middle of their defense. The interesting play here is Javon Wims, who came in an played over 91% of the snaps in Week 4 with Taylor Gabriel sidelined. Wims has been electric each of the last two preseasons, and he’s the same price as another value play that is set for much higher-ownership this week. As long as Gabriel is out, we can consider Wims usable in both cash games and tournaments, but I really think this is going to be the Montgomery show in London.
Cash Game Options: David Montgomery, Javon Wims (If Gabriel Out)
GPP Options: Allen Robinson, Darren Waller
New York Jets @ Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Eagles 28.5, Jets 15
Quarterback- We really aren’t sure who is starting for the Eagles yet, as Sam Darnold could return from mono but that seems unlikely at this point. Regardless, the only Quarterback we are considering in this game is Carson Wentz, who I actually have pretty high on my tournament list as of right now. The Eagles own one of the highest implied team totals on the slate at 28.5, and this feels like another spot similar to Week 1 where we could see Wentz smash as a home favorite.
Running Back- You could make the case for Le’Veon Bell as a contrarian tournament play this week, but with plenty of other Running Backs cracking my GPP pool, I just think it’s a bit to thin, especially with the health of Darnold unknown at the time of writing this. Unlike David Montgomery, Miles Sanders’ snaps and usage have been trending in the wrong direction, and we could consider Jordan Howard as a huge favorite against a poor run-defense. Howard’s season was brought to life last Thursday night against the Packers, and his snap rate has increased each game this season. I prefer other cheap backs such as Miles Sanders and Ronald Jones to him this week, but he is in play nonetheless.
Pass Catchers- I’m very interested in Wentz this week which means I’m going to need someone to pair him with! That decision comes down to Alshon Jeffery or Zach Ertz (or both) who both draw plus matchups. Jeffery returned in Week 4 to lead the Eagles in targets, and the Jets have been vulnerable both on the outside and inside. We have attacked Gregg Williams defense with Tight Ends dating back to his days in Cleveland, and that won’t stop with Ertz who has already seen six targets inside the 20 this season.
I would like to run back my Wentz stacks with someone from the Jets in hopes that this game stays relatively close, and that player would have to be Robby Anderson. Anyone that reads this article knows I have locked in outside WR’s against the Eagles dating back to last season, and that hasn’t changed in 2019. Davante Adams most recently decimated this Eagles secondary a week ago, and despite Anderson’s slow start to the season he still leads this team in air yards by a wide margin, but has hauled in just 10 of 18 targets.
Potential Stack: Carson Wentz, Alshon Jeffery, Robby Anderson (might add Ertz as well)
Cash Game Options: none
GPP Options: Carson Wentz, Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, Robby Anderson, Jordan Howard
Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Bengals 25, Cardinals 22
Quarterback- As you can tell, I’ve been saving the best games on the early slate for last, and this is probably the game I’m most excited about this week. After Kyle Allen shredded the Cardinals in Week 3, I wrote last week that I thought the secret was out, and the masses would begin game-stacking against the Cardinals like readers of this article have been all season…I still think that’s the case, but this week could be a bit different after everyone watched the Bengals get slammed on Monday night against the Steelers. If that game didn’t happen, or if it wasn’t on primetime, this would undoubtedly be the chalk spot of the week, but because of that game I think it will fall behind at least the Houston/Carolina game.
I have both Quarterbacks in this game tagged in my player pool, one for all formats and one for tournaments only. Starting with Murray, who I think is better suited for GPPs this week, this should be his best matchup thus far of his career. The Bengals rank bottom-three in sacks this season, so the usual constant pressure that Murray sees shouldn’t be as big of an issue, and that time to throw should open up the Cardinals offense a bit. We haven’t seen a ceiling-type output from Murray yet this season, but he has still managed 17+ DK points in every game and if there was a week for him to fully breakout, it’s Week 5.
Dalton is one of the most interesting spots on the entire slate, with him certain to go under-owned after a sub-ten fantasy point dud on Monday Night Football. It really wasn’t even mostly on Dalton, it was the abysmal offensive line play, but that won’t be an issue this week against a Cardinals defense that struggled to pressure opposing Quarterbacks. We’ve talked each week how the team opposite Arizona is going to benefit from a pace of play standpoint, and that has held true — opposing offenses average almost 68 plays per game against Arizona this season. If you look at Dalton’s season, outside of the game in Pittsburgh (where he has perennially struggled) he has 18+ DK points in every game including one on the road in Buffalo against one of the best defenses in the NFL. This is an amazing leverage spot this week, if in fact, he goes under-owned, and Dalton is neck-and-neck with Deshaun Watson for my favorite QB on the slate.
Running Back- David Johnson gets one of the top smash spots of the season against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that has surrendered the most receiving yards in football to opposing Running Backs. DJ has been used much more effectively as a receiver out of the backfield under Kilff Kingsbury, and we could see even more of that in Week 5 with part-time slot receiver Christian Kirk likely out. If you take Kirk out, DJ ranks second-overall on the team in targets and it won’t shock me to see them feed him early in this game. He’s one of the top plays on the entire slate and playable in all formats this week.
Joe Mixon has had one of the most disappointing seasons thus far, but if there was a matchup for him to crush value it would be this one. The Cardinals have been shredded on the ground once again this season, and Mixon is coming off a season-high in touches against the Steelers. Slated as a home-favorite in one of the softest matchups in the NFL, Mixon is a great tournament play for Week 5.
Pass Catchers- There are obviously lots of ways to go here in all formats given our overall interest in the game. Starting with the Cardinals, Larry Fitzgerald is priced well enough that I don’t think he’s a “must-play” in cash games, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s one of the best overall Wide Receiver plays on the slate. With Christian Kirk unlikely to suit up, he dominates the target share on this Cardinals team and combines a safe-floor with a huge ceiling should the Cardinals stay in this game, which they should be able to do. You could take a cheap flier on someone like KeeSean Johnson or Trent Sherfield with Damiere Byrd still sidelined as well, but outside of a game-stack I see no reason to risk it.
For the Bengals, we have two plays that stick out above the rest in Tyler Boyd and Auden Tate. John Ross being out definitely negatively affects Dalton, but this matchup combined with the pace make up for it. We were all over Tyler Lockett in this matchup in the slot vs Arizona last week, and that doesn’t change with Boyd who leads the team in targets by over 20 with Ross off the field. Due to his price tag, similar to Fitzgerald, he’s not a “must-play”, but that just makes him better for tournaments as industry-wide group think could shy people away. As for Auden Tate, he has a very good case to be the highest-owned WR on the slate priced at just $3,500 on DraftKings and $5,300 on FanDuel. He’s drawn 16 targets over the last two weeks and is sure to get a bump up with Ross down for the whole game, not a household name but he’s a big receiver who has had success in the last two preseason’s for the Bengals. He’s easy to fade in tournaments, but it’s tough to pass up that kind of value in cash games.
Note: Tyler Eifert is sure to get ownership this week in everyone’s favorite matchup for Tight Ends, but I’m most likely fading him. He is not near as involved in the offense as some of the other TE’s to face them (even Will Dissly) and I am tagging him as a GPP play, but will be well underweight.
Potential Stack: Andy Dalton/Kyler Murray, Tyler Boyd, Larry Fitzgerald, David Johnson
Cash Game Options: David Johnson, Auden Tate, Andy Dalton, Larry Fitzgerald
GPP Options: Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, Kyler Murray, Tyler Eifert
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Saints 25, Bucs 22
Quarterback- This is definitely one of the three best games on the slate, but I also have it ranked third after ARZ/CIN and HOU/ATL. As Matt and I pointed out on this week’s Game Theory Thursday podcast, Jameis Winston has struggled against zone-heavy defensive schemes throughout his NFL career, which is exactly what the New Orleans Saints are. He also struggles under pressure, and the Saints have a formidable pass rush that emphasizes getting pressure on opposing Quarterbacks. This game could certainly turn into a shootout, so I think a game-stack is a must in tournaments, but as far as individual plays I’m not super-high on Winston this week.
The same can be said for Teddy Bridgewater, who like Jacoby Brissett, is being used more as a game manager than a Quarterback. Sure, that has no affect on the real-life outcome of this game, and Sean Payton clearly is a good coach and knows what it takes to win, but for fantasy, I just can’t get excited here. Bridgewater has yet to complete a pass more than 20 yards down the field, and I think I like the under on this game, but it will also be a great-game to watch (not for fantasy IMO).
Running Back- Like I said above, I’m definitely more on the game-stack here than anything else, but you can make the case for Alvin Kamara and even Ronald Jones as being strong tournament plays this weekend. Kamara is sure to come in low-owned with Bridgewater at Quarterback and surrounded by Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook in price, making him one of the best leverage plays on the slate. The Buccaneers have been arguably the best run-defense in the NFL through four week, but Kamara is able to do plenty of damage through the air and the Saints may look to lean on him a bit more in that role given that it might just not be there on the ground. Michael Thomas is set-up to be one of the highest-owned receivers on the slate due to his pricetag *on DK* which will lower Alvin Kamara’s ownership even more.
Jones is not someone I have been on at all yet this season, but I’m going to drink the Kool-Aid and I think it’s time to jump on the bandwagon. Jones reached 50% of the snaps in Week 4, and also led the team in touches with 20. Jones has clearly been the Bucs best back on film throughout his season, and seems like that is finally starting to help in terms of usage. He isn’t getting fed many targets, but he has looked good enough that if we can get 18+ touches this week I think he can easily beat his price tag.
Pass Catchers- Mike Evans and Chris Godwin continued their assault on fantasy points last week in LA, and are laughing in the faces of people that questioned whether or not the Buccaneers offense could sustain multiple top-ten fantasy wideouts. Both are going to be in play this week, but if picking one for cash games I think it has to be Chris Godwin in the slot. Evans will see Marshon Lattimore shadow-coverage who he has had big, and bad games against so it could really go either way. I have no conviction when it comes to OJ Howard with how he has looked this season, but simply grabbing a cheap piece of this game in any format is a formidable strategy.
Neither of them will be higher-owned than Michael Thomas on DraftKings however, as MT comes in at just $6,600…a top-three WR in the league, under $7K, against the Bucs, what is going on? Thomas’ aDOT of 8.1 yards means we aren’t going to see a huge drop-off with Bridgewater at Quarterback, and we haven’t thus far. Thomas is second-overall in the NFL in weighted opportunity rating according to airyards.com, and is seemingly due for positive touchdown regression once again early this season.
Cash Game Options: Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin, OJ Howard
GPP Options: Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Alvin Kamara, Ronald Jones
Atlanta Falcons @ Houston Texans
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Texans 27, Falcons 22
Quarterback- This game, along with the showdown in Cincinnati, is definitely going to be the focus of the slate with minimal attractive games to choose from. I like this game a lot, and I have since I began researching the slate, the problem is that this does feel like the one game that EVERYONE is gravitating towards so you are going to have to implement some game theory when building tournament lineups with pieces of this game.
Matt Ryan is not going to crack my cash game pool, but I simply cannot ignore him in tournaments. He’s topped 300 yards in every game this season (especially crucial on DK) and now gets a Texans secondary that’s strength is clearly not the secondary. It seems like everyone is focusing on Watson (rightfully so) here, so simply using the game theory I spoke of above makes Ryan an exceptional leverage play in GPPs.
Watson is currently projected to be the highest-owned QB on the slate, and there are no doubts about this matchup with a Keanu Neal-less Falcons defense. This defense has given up big fantasy days to the likes Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota, so what are we expecting Watson to do this weekend? Similar to Kyler Murray, the Falcons also rank bottom-three in sacks, and allowing Watson time to throw is crucial to his success. With Patrick Mahomes off the slate, Watson is right there with Lamar Jackson in terms of the highest ceiling on this slate and I completely understand why he is set to be chalky. He’s one of my favorite QB’s this weekend and is viable in all formats on all sites.
Running Back- This does set-up as a big-time shootout, but unlike the Bengals game I’m not super interested in the backfields. Devonta Freeman is in the same camp as Leonard Fournette, both are hunting for their first touchdown of the season, and I was encouraged by Freeman’s usage last week once again. Despite getting trolled out of a touchdown in the red zone, Freeman dominated the touches over Ito Smith and hauled in 8 of 9 targets. I think he’s viable in tournaments this week, or in a game-stack, and I prefer him to both Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson. It’s still tough for me to trust Bill O’Brien when it comes to DFS, Carlos Hyde continues to be out-snapped by Duke Johnson, but see more touches than him. The matchup is really good, but I am not in the game of guessing and will likely avoid the situation altogether.
Pass Catchers- This is where we are looking to get paid in DFS, and I couldn’t be more excited to watch this game. You can take shots on guys like Calvin Ridley or Mo Sanu in game-stacks, but the main piece I want here is going to be Julio Jones…obviously. Not only is the Texans secondary bad, but they are specifically bad in allowing big plays to receivers and that is pretty much exactly what we want when it comes to Julio. I am a bit concerned that they will be able to get enough pressure on Ryan that he won’t be as sharp on these deep throws, but the upside with Julio is too massive to ignore, especially when it feels like the Texans WRs and the options from the TB/NO game will be higher-owned.
On the Texans side, I (we) just can’t get enough of DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller this week. Both Corey Davis and AJ Brown exploded on the outside against this Falcons defense without Neal in Week 4, and we definitely could see a similar outcome this week with Nuk and Fuller. Nuk finally will avoid a tough shadow matchup, and Fuller has been close to a truly massive game multiple times this season, including a 75 yard potential touchdown that Watson just missed him with last week. Fuller is going to end up as chalk when it comes to cash games this week, so is choosing just one I do prefer Hopkins in tournaments.
Kenny Still is questionable for this game, if he misses, that would bump and extremely cheap Keke Coutee into the cash game conversation, but we won’t know this news until this weekend.
Potential Stack: Matt Ryan (for leverage), Julio Jones, Nuk Hopkins, Will Fuller
Cash Game Options: Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller, Keke Coutee (IF STILLS OUT)
GPP Options: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Devonta Freeman, Calvin Ridley
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Chargers 25.5, Broncos 19
Quarterback- Joe Flacco was completely brought back to life by the Jaguars defense last week, topping 17 DK points for the first time this season. I am not on him in this matchup for DFS, though with Melvin Engram expected to miss this game I would expect the Broncos offensive line to at least hold up long enough for him to be able to pick out his receivers. Philip Rivers was also great fantasy-wise last week, but the Chargers were winning so easily that they didn’t need to keep their foot on the gas much. This game projects to be much closer, so if you’re feeling frisky, you can look at Rivers who should benefit from the absence of Bradley Chubb, though I prefer likes of Jackson, Wentz and Murray in GPPs personally.
Running Back- Just when it looked like Phillip Lindsay was pulling away from Royce Freeman, they got the same amount of work in Week 4 and it complicates the situation enough that I will be avoiding it altogether. I won’t be shocked if one of these guys has a good game, especially if the game is close, but I see no value in attempting to guess which one that is unless you are MME’ing.
Perhaps the most interesting spot of this entire game is the Melvin Gordon/Austin Ekeler situation, and I’m going to tell you why I think Ekeler is one of the best tournament plays on the entire slate. For starters, he’s going to be literally 35%+ less-owned than he was in Week 4, and that’s only due to the presence of Gordon, not the matchup. This Broncos defense has struggled to adapt for Vic Fangio, and now without Bradley Chubb, the season is all but over and October just started. That being said, I just don’t see how Gordon is going to come back and dominate the work after being out for so long, and if that was the case, he would of handled at least some work last week. Dontrelle Inman hit IR this week for the Chargers, and I expect that to be even more reason for them to lean on Ekeler in the passing game. His price dropped, the ownership is going to drop drastically, and I’m going to buy Ekeler in GPPs this week.
Pass Catchers- The receiving corps is really interesting on both sides of this game, and should warrant tournament consideration up and down. Both Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton have been really good this season, and both can be used as a GPP one-off in any lineup you make, the big play I want to talk about, however, is Noah Fant. Fant is someone I was really high coming into the season after I saw how much they used him in the preseason, and that has held true with him ranking top-nine in the NFL in routes run by Tight Ends through the first month of the season. He finally found the box for the first time last week, and the Chargers defense has struggled at times against Tight Ends without Derwin James occupying that safety spot. Fant is cheaper than someone like Tyler Eifert on DraftKings, and has significantly higher-upside in my opinion, he’s playable in all formats.
My favorite play on the Chargers is 100% Austin Ekeler, but I do think that Keenan Allen will experience a similar ownership drop. This is a weird situation because Chris Harris is an elite corner, and he used to play primarily in the slot (where Keenan Allen plays). This season, Harris has not been in the slot, but we have no clue if he will return there to shadow Allen or not — personally, I assume he will. Allen has always struggled with Harris’ coverage, so this isn’t a case where we want to play him in cash games, but for tournaments, I have no issues going back here especially with him going to be so low-owned. I won’t be shocked to see either Ekeler or Allen in GPP-winning lineups on Sunday evening.
Cash Game Options: Noah Fant
GPP Options: Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Phil Rivers
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys
Vegas Implied Team Totals: Cowboys 25, Packers 21.5
Quarterback- Despite this game having one of the higher O/U’s of the week, I like the under here and I am not overly enthused with many DFS plays. This Dallas defense has been really good to start the season, and Rodgers is not someone that typically puts up huge fantasy numbers anyways. The Packers defense profiles as a pretty clear run-funnel to me, with one of the best secondaries in the league anchored by breakout star Jaire Alexander. Dallas returned to a more run-focused, bland offense last week, and that could be the case once again with Tyron Smith expected to miss this game. Dallas is coming back to JerryWorld after a tough loss in primetime last weekend, and even with Michael Gallup expected back, I think they lean on their 90 million dollar man on Sunday.
Running Back- I think BOTH teams could lean on their run games in this spot, and that does set-up well for Aaron Jones in tournaments with Jamaal Williams likely to be sidelined due to a concussion. Jones is coming off career-high passing game usage in their Week 4 loss to the Eagles (Williams exited early) and with only Dexter Williams, who struggled in the preseason, behind him this profiles a buy spot for Jones from a usage perspective. The problem is, he’s close enough in price to the likes of David Montgomery and Joe Mixon that I prefer them.
As I mentioned in the Dak Prescott analysis above, this is 100% a run-funnel and it’s why Ezekiel Elliott is a near lock for me in cash games. Jordan Howard did his best undertaker.gif impression against this Packers defense last week, and I do think that the Cowboys will stick with a run-heavy approach this weekend. Not only have the Packers struggled on the ground, but they are also top-five in catches allowed to opposing Running Backs. It feels like we haven’t had that true #FeedZeke smash game yet this season, and hopefully (for us) it comes on Sunday.
Pass Catchers- I have pretty much zero interest in the Quarterbacks in this game, so their pass catchers aren’t moving the needle for me much either. I will note that if Davante Adams is in fact out, you can take a tournament shot on Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but there is a long line of mid-tier WRs I have ranked ahead of him in this matchup. GPP dart only.
Cash Game Options: Ezekiel Elliott
GPP Options: Aaron Jones, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
