Chicago Bears @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas Total: 47.5
Outlook: This appears on the surface to be one of the ugliest games on the main slate, but I keep finding myself interested in pieces and actually think it profiles as a sneaky game stack. For starters, the total of 47.5 seems low relative to others on the slate, but it’s actually not that low in theory. Ryan Tannehill and the Titans offense has smashed since he took over as home favorites. The Bears have been much more stingy vs the pass than the run, but Tanny averages over 28 fantasy points per game as a home favorite in Tennessee…I can’t overlook that mark. Those run funnel tendencies set up well for Derrick Henry as well, who nobody will own despite having one of the highest touch projections on the slate once again. The Titans pass catching corps is back healthy, but AJ Brown is the clear stacking partner with Tannehill. He’s picked up where he left off in 2019, scoring in every game but one this season.
The Bears are set to be without three to four offensive lineman in this one, which certainly hurts the chances of a sneaky shootout of happening. That being said, Allen Robinson is the clear bring back as the Titans are bottom-six in fantasy points allowed to his position. Despite mediocrity from Foles, he still has a ceiling and has dominated the targets.
The only other Bears player I’m considering is David Montgomery. Monty is the opposite of Robinson and lacks a true ceiling unless he finds his way to multiple touchdowns. The Titans have struggled vs the run this season and will be without Jadeveon Clowney in this game. Monty is cheap, and has a rally secure role in the Bears passing game with 5+ targets in each of his last five games. A banged up line could lead to more dump-offs to him, but he is a better play on FanDuel than DK in Week 9.
Cash Game Pool: None
GPP Pool: Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, Allen Robinson, David Montgomery
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Total: 51
Outlook: This would have been an extremely interesting game, but we have massive uncertainty with Matt Stafford on the covid list. It looks like he will be able to play, but that’s a big piece of news we will be waiting on Saturday night. Chase Daniel would start in the instance that Stafford misses this game.
D’Andre Swift is the clear best back on this Lions team, but Matt Patricia will continue to have wet dreams about being Bill Belichick which means we will continue to see a RBBC in Detroit, at least in some capacity. I understand wanting to throw a dart on Swift in this matchup, but as readers know, I don’t play guessing games in DFS.
Kenny Golladay is out for this game as well for the Lions, this would severely hurt Stafford if he plays. It does bump up both Marvin Jones and TJ Hockenson, but not enough for me to strongly consider them until I know if Stafford is 100% playing.
The Vikings should have no problems feasting on this defense, particularly Dalvin Cook. I loved Cook last week citing his strong history vs the Packers, but was not expecting an eruption of those proportions. He has equally as strong of a history against this Patricia-coached defense, and is arguably the top RB play on the slate on all sites. Kirk Cousins has also had big games vs this defense, but with Stafford up in the air and no Golladay, I think the chances of a shootout are slim. Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are both great leverage plays off Cook in tournaments, but I will likely be more inclined to eat the chalk with Cook than pivot off him in this spot.
Cash Game Pool: Dalvin Cook
GPP Pool: Marvin Jones, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson
New York Giants @ Washington Football Team
Vegas Total: 43
Outlook: Maybe the grossest game on the main slate, a 43 O/U and showdown between Kyle Allen and Daniel Jones doesn’t provide much hope for fantasy goodness. The Giants have actually been a formidable defense, but the Football Team is rested coming off their bye week. There are only two plays I’m interested in here, and they are Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin. Gibson is actually quietly one of the best leverage plays for tournaments on the slate in my opinion. The matchup is relatively neutral, but people will forget he received a season-high 23 touches in Washington’s last game. There’s a lot of historical data that backs up rookie RBs breaking out after their bye week, and I think we could see Scott Turner give the keys to the offense to Gibson in this game. McLaurin has been a volume monster with Allen at quarterback, and is playable as a one-off in tourneys despite a tough individual matchup with James Bradberry.
The Giants are a mess on offense right now with Jones constantly under pressure and once again turning the ball over like crazy. I don’t mind a GPP shot at Evan Engram at the tight end position, but overall, this is a team I will avoid in my three to five builds. Gibson, however, is someone I plan on being overweight to.
Cash Game Pool: None
GPP Pool: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas Total: 50
Outlook: Despite a big 50 O/U in this game, I’m going to start this blurb by completely eliminating the Jaguars from my pool except for James Robinson. Rookie Jake Luton is set to start with Gardner Minshew injured, and that doesn’t appear to bode well for this Jaguars offense. Luton has a reputation of being afraid to throw deep, and that hurts everyone on this offense outside of Robinson. He already owns one of the highest raw workloads in the NFL at this position this season, and we could see a few extra targets on dump offs from Luton in an A+ matchup.
The Texans are a different story, as Watson is up against a bottom-five pass defense. Watson has been running more over the last few weeks, raising his floor, and the ceiling is already there with the Jags allowing fantasy points at a top-three rate on a per game basis to QB’s. He is one of the top quarterback options on the slate. Both Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller have over 46 targets each, the next closest being Randall Cobb at 38. Cooks actually leads the team in targets with over 50, and has a similar ceiling to Fuller for much less in salary on DFS sites. He is my preferred stacking partner in cash games / single entry while Fuller can be used as a pivot in tournaments.
David Johnson is another back that has dominated work despite not seeing huge results. There have been some rumors that they want to get Duke Johnson on the field more, but for now we can fire up David in tournaments for a low-owned piece of this game.
With Akins expected back, we can cross off Darren Fells at TE.
Cash Game Pool: Deshaun Watson, Brandin Cooks
GPP Pool: Will Fuller, David Johnson, James Robinson
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Total: 48.5
Outlook: I think this is one of the more boring games for fantasy purposes, with two good real-life teams squaring off. I love the Ravens as my favorite bet of the week, but in terms of DFS, it’s hard to trust any of them outside of a tournament stack. This isn’t typically a defense we look to pick on, but the prices on all for Lamar Jackson/Hollywood Brown/Mark Andrews are getting so low we have to consider the. We know that’s where the ball is going when Jackson throws it, but I prefer stacking just one of them rather than two. Brown has one of our favorite narratives, after calling out the team for not properly utilizing him after last weeks game vs Pittsburgh.
Mark Ingram is set to miss this week again, which opens up a two-headed monster of Gus “Bus” Edwards and JK Dobbins. Both makes for strong tournament plays, and have been extremely efficient this season. Dobbins is my preferred option due to his upside as a pass catcher, and the chance that his role will continue to grow game after game.
The Ravens could be without some key defenders in this one due to Marlon Humphrey hitting the covid list, and that’s something we need to monitor up until lock. The Colts are one of the grossest offenses, however, and I’m lacking any interest here outside of GPP darts. They refuse to give Jonathan Taylor a robust workload, and the RBBC is not one I’m targeting in Week 9.
The interesting situation here is the Colts being down three receivers — TY Hilton, Paris Campbell and Ashton Dulin. This paves the way for min-priced. hyper-athletic Marcus Johnson to start on the outside. He is a viable punt in cash games, but someone I would avoid in GPPs at expected high-ownership.
Cash Game Pool: Marcus Johnson (punt on DK)
GPP Pool: Lamar Jackson, Hollywood Brown, Mark Andrews, JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards
Carolina Panthers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Vegas Total: 53
Outlook: It’s tough for me to get a good read on this game. It has a huge 53 O/U, so obviously we can expect points to be scored here, but I’m just not sure the matchup is all that good for Carolina. We saw the Buffalo Bills struggle at home with this Chiefs defense, and they were in a lot more prolific form than the Panthers are heading into these games. The Chiefs have skewed much more towards a run-funnel, so I think I want to be underweight on the passing game but be overweight to Christian McCaffrey who is projecting for really low-ownership. He has the best individual matchup on the team and we are getting an injury discount. People are worried about Mike Davis’ role, but even if CMC logged 75% of the RB work he’s still a value at his current price tag. We’ve seen countless players smash despite injury concerns, and CMC had a full two months to recover from his ankle injury.
The Chiefs provide the same outlook as almost every week, with the trifecta of Mahomes/Hill/Kelce being a great stack in tournaments. They were extremely low-owned last week vs the Jets, and I could see a similar situation this week. CEH is an interesting dart in tournaments, we are getting him at a really low price due to the presence of Le’Veon Bell but the Panthers have allowed the second-most PPR points to RBs. You can’t project him for a TD, but the Panthers like to keep things in front of them with their zone-defense so maybe we see more of a Chiefs/Bills type game-plan from Reid, relying on his backfield in a smash spot.
Cash Game Pool: None
GPP Pool: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Robby Anderson/DJ Moore, Christian McCaffrey, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Total: 50
Outlook: This has become one of my favorite tournament spots on the slate. The Falcons are still an egregious defense and the total has risen up to 50 points. They are still coughing up the most fantasy points to QB’s, which thrusts Drew Lock into punt consideration in tournaments. He’s best deployed in game-stacks with Jerry Jeudy and/or Noah Fant and Julio Jones. Jeudy quietly saw 10 targets last week and was the top WR in the NFL in accumulated Air Yards.
Ryan is always someone we consider at home in the dome, and he gets a nice little boost with the Broncos top CB, AJ Bouye, out for this game. It definitely hurts that Calvin Ridley is expected out, but the Falcons are one of the few teams that can afford an injury like that seeing as the still have Julio Jones. Jones has posted an insane 30% of the Falcons targets over the last season and a half with Ridley off the field, and he is my favorite play on the slate now that Bouye is out in addition to his massive expected usage. Christian Blake should occupy the Ridley-role in this offense, but he has yet to impress in 2020. He is min-priced, however, and could be worth a punt if you really need the savings. Hayden Hurst is another Falcons player expected to be high-owned in Ridley’s absence, and he is too cheap on all sites at tight end.
The way to build this game in my opinion, is eat the chalk of Julio with either of Ryan/Lock and the Jeudy. This will give you enough low-ownership that you can get some other chalky pieces around them.
I will be avoiding both backfields here, and focus on the passing games.
Cash Game Pool: Julio Jones, Hayden Hurst
GPP Pool: Matt Ryan, Drew Lock, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant
Seattle Seahawks @ Buffalo Bills
Vegas Total: 55
Outlook: This is pretty much the game of the slate, with the highest O/U and two defense that are towards the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The Bills offense has struggled in recent weeks, but this is a get-right spot at home and we can comfortably project a shootout in Buffalo on Sunday. Starting with the Hawks, Russ Wilson is the QB1 in fantasy scoring through eight weeks of the season…need I say more? The Bills have been vulnerable to big games to all positions, and Russ is locked in as the top QB play once again. The beauty of stacking Wilson is we know that the ball is going to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Lockett projects to be much higher-owned due to his matchup inside. I like both of them or even a double-stack, but I want to point out how good of a play Metcalf is at low-ownership. People will be scared of Tre White shadow-coverage, but for what it’s worth, per PFF Metcalf has been the best receiver in football in single coverage this season with 7 touchdowns…
DeeJay Dallas should be the focal point of the backfield with Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde both down again for Seattle. This is a plus matchup on the ground, and I think Dallas is playable in all formats due to the expected scoring environment.
Allen has been Jekyll and Hyde in 2020, but we can’t overlook Seattle allowing the second-most points to his position. I do think he is a top option in Week 9, and can be used in stacks with Stef Diggs or John Brown. Diggs is surrounded by other strong options which should keep ownership at bay, while Brown was able to get some full practices in late this week and is priced below $5K despite a legitimate big play ceiling.
I will avoid the Bills RBBC, and focus on Russ or Allen based game stacks. I think this game goes over the 55 O/U…
Cash Game Pool: Russ Wilson, Josh Allen, Tyler Lockett, John Brown, DeeJay Dallas
GPP Pool: DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Vegas Total: 52
Outlook: Is anything more 2020 than projecting the Raiders and Chargers game as a shootout? Justin Herbert continues to be one of the best QB’s in fantasy, and draws another sweet matchup with Vegas on Sunday. The Raiders have once again struggled to generate pressure post-Khalil Mack trade and that bodes well for Herbert and his weapons. Keenan Allen owns over 30% of the teams targets since Herbert took over, and will continue to be one of the safest receivers on any slate. He can be used in a stack with Herbert, or as a one-off at his price tag. You also can look at Mike Williams in a stack with Herbert due the Raiders struggles with pressure, we can feel good about them connecting on a deep ball. Hunter Henry is under-priced on both sites, and ranks top-seven in the NFL in targets at the tight end position.
We got some big news on Friday with RB Troymaine Pope being ruled out for the Chargers. Pope un-surprisingly jumped Josh Kelley in playing time last week, and his absence will secure Justin Jackson as one of the top value plays on the slate. The Raiders have coughed up the eighth-most fantasy points to Jackson’s position this season, with the third-most rushing touchdowns allowed.
On the Raiders side, their matchup got a lot better with the Chargers shipping Desmond King to Tennessee and likely missing Joey Bosa this week due to a concussion. The spread is just a point here, which means we will be considering Josh Jacobs in all formats. Jacobs trails only Derrick Henry in rush attempts this season, and if he is able to find the end zone, he can destroy his price tag. Waller is still the top-dog in this offense, but his price tag puts him into the GPP-only category for me when someone like Hunter Henry is much cheaper in this same game. I think the best way to play this game in tournaments is stacking Herbert with Allen and running it back with Josh Jacobs…and I plan to do so in my 3 max entries.
Cash Game Pool: Keenan Allen, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Henry
GPP Pool: Justin Herbert, Darren Waller
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Dallas Cowboys
Vegas Total: 43
Outlook: Analysis will be posted soon!
Cash Game Pool: None — Steelers D/ST
GPP Pool: James Conner — Bump Tony Pollard to Cash Game range if Zeke ruled out
Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals
Vegas Total: 49.5
Outlook: This has quickly turned into one of the most fun games on the Week 9 main slate, and I’m glad it’s in the afternoon set so I can actually watch it more so than the craziness of the 1 o clock hour. Tua looked as raw as you’d expect in his first start, but there is reason for optimism this week. He should naturally be more prepared in his second start, and despite neutral splits I think this is a slightly better matchup than he saw vs the Rams. This is someone I want to get in on early, similar to Justin Herbert’s meteoric rise, and I will be firing up some Tua stacks in tournaments. My preferred stack with him is Mike Gesicki. The Cardinals haven’t struggled vs tight ends like they did in 2019, but we really have to look at Gesicki like a slot receiver. He’s been in the slot over 70% of his routes this season, and was basically splitting time their with Isaiah Ford. Ford was traded to New England this week, which should pave the way for Gesicki to get on the field more.
With Myles Gaskin out, I’m not interested in what I expect to be a three-man RBBC with Matt Breida, Jordan Howard and Pat Laird.
The Cardinals side of this game is especially interesting. This Dolphins defense has been no slouch, and they are profiling as a major run-funnel defense this season. Through eight weeks, they’ve allowed the fourth-least fantasy points to QB’s. Kyler Murray’s value is with his legs anyways, and his Lamar-like usage in the run game will keep him in my player pool weekly. You clearly want DeAndre Hopkins in your stack with Murray, despite facing a tough defense, Nuk has vacuumed nearly 30% of the Cardinals total targets this season.
The lock of this game and maybe the slate is Chase Edmonds with Kenyan Drake out. Edmonds was already a viable tournament play weekly while splitting time with Drake all season. After Drake got hurt vs Seattle, no other Cards running back saw the field and Edmonds racked up seven targets. Miami is bottom-ten in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs.
Cash Game Pool: Chase Edmonds (lock!)
GPP Pool: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Tua Tagovailoa, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
