Washington Redskins (+132)
This line simply doesn’t make sense. The Washington Redskins have found plenty of success throughout the season, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have cycled through two quarterbacks with virtually no defense. This is a game of two completely different teams, as Tampa Bay relies heavily on their offense, while Washington relies on their defense. Tampa Bay has struggled with a -5.8 point differential this season, allowing a league-high 34.4 points per game on defense. Washington struggled significantly more on offense, but owns a -1.5 point differential thus far. I expect Washington’s defense to have more success against Tampa Bay’s offense than I do the Bucs defense against the Redskins offense. This game essentially comes down to which struggling side of the ball you expect to find success, and I lean heavily towards the Washington offense in this particular matchup.
Bet 2 units on Washington ML to win 2.6 units (+132)
New Orleans Saints (-265)/Cincinnati Bengals (+218)
This total was one of the most surprising on the slate. Both teams focus heavily on offense, while struggling defensively throughout the season. New Orleans and Cincinnati both rank in the top-10 of the NFL in points scored per game, while also ranking in the bottom-six of the league in points allowed per game. Overall, these two teams are combining to score 62.5 points, while also combining to allow 56.9 points per game. The Bengals will be without A.J. Green in this matchup, but the majority of the damage against the Saints defense is against their slot cornerback, which will come from Tyler Boyd, who is enjoying a breakout season. It feels odd comfortably making the biggest bet in this article on such a high over, but there is very little reason to believe this game will turn into a defensive matchup.
Bet 4 units on New Orleans/Cincinnati OVER 54 to win 3.5 units (-115)
Green Bay Packers (-494)
The Green Bay Packers have struggled often throughout the season, but this game is a bit of a mismatch. Since Week 4, the Miami Dolphins are averaging only 19.0 points per game. They are also allowing 29.2 points per game over that span. Aside from a defensive matchup against the New York Jets, they have allowed 28 or more points in each game. While Green Bay has struggled this season, specifically defensively, this is one of the easiest matchups they can wish for. The Dolphins will also be traveling to Green Bay, who will boast home field advantage. Normally, these spreads are a bit too wide to comfortably bet, but the Dolphins show no reason to believe they won’t struggle once again this week.
Bet 2 units on Green Bay -10.5 spread to win 1.9 units (-105)
Parlay 2 units on Atlanta -6.5 spread, New Orleans -6 spread, and Los Angeles Chargers -10.5 spread to win 12.2 units (+612)