Indianapolis Colts (-230)
This is a matchup against an offensive-minded team against a defensive-minded team. The Indianapolis Colts are averaging 29.5 points per game, while allowing 24.8 points per game. The Jacksonville Jaguars, on the other hand, have held their opponents to 22.1 points per game, while averaging only 17.9 points per game. They may struggle against Indy’s defense, with Cody Kessler drawing the start and Leonard Fournette suspended. The Colts have scored 24+ points in each of their last eight games after failing to do so in each of their first three games. Furthermore, the Jaguars have scored 21 or fewer points in six of their last seven games, including two games with only seven points. I don’t expect their offense to take a step forward behind Kessler, and they are likely to be without Jalen Ramsey, who is one of their star defensive players. Indianapolis won the first matchup between this duo, and I’m expecting them to do that once again, but by a wider margin.
Bet 3 units on Indianapolis -5 spread to win 2.7 units (-110)
Los Angeles Rams (-500)
This is simply a matchup between one of the best teams in the NFL and one of the worst. The Los Angeles Rams are averaging 35.4 points per game, while they’re also allowing 25.6 points per game. The Detroit Lions haven’t found similar success, averaging 21.6 points per game, while allowing 26.0 points per game. The Rams are expected to get Aqib Talib back from injury, and he has the potential to take their defense to the next level. There’s no reason to believe Detroit will be able to slow down the LA offense, and they have scored 22 or fewer points in each of their last five games. The Lions are a team that is fading away fast in the NFL, while Los Angeles has true Super Bowl potential. The only concern in this game is the double digit spread, but the Rams have proven throughout the season that they have the potential to blowout their opponents.
Bet 3 units on Los Angeles -10.5 spread to win 2.9 units (-105)
New York Jets (+310)/Miami Dolphins (-410)
Two of the worst offenses in the NFL will face off in this game, but it has a sneaky chance to hit the over. The New York Jets have quietly struggled defensively recently, allowing 24+ points in five of their last six games. The Tennessee Titans haven’t been playing at an elite level, but they are averaging 21.6 points per game against a few tough defenses over their last five games. Tennessee has also allowed 34 and 38 points in their last two games. While I don’t expect this game to be an elite scoring matchup, I do believe that this total is set at a few points too low. Neither defense has been playing as well as advertised, and their offenses have sneaky potential to perform well in this matchup.
Bet 2 units on New York/Miami OVER 40.5 to win 1.8 units (-110)
Parlay 2 units on Carolina -3.5 spread, Atlanta -1.5 spread, and Chicago -4 spread to win 11.6 units (+581)
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