Atlanta Falcons (+190)/Green Bay Packers (-235)
I generally don’t go with narratives, but I am this week. The Green Bay Packers recently fired Mike McCarthy, and they’re likely to let Aaron Rodgers run at least some of the offense this week. He’ll be looking to show what Green Bay can do with a real game plan, and they get a great matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, who are allowing 27.8 points per game this season. Green Bay has also struggled defensively, allowing 23.9 points per game in 2018. These are two offensive minded teams, and I’m simply buying into the fact that Rodgers and company will want to show the world what they can do without McCarthy. For what it’s worth, these two teams are combining to allow 51.7 points per game, while also combining to average 48.1 points per game. Simply put, neither team features the defense to slow down the opposing offense, which should result in a plethora of scoring.
Bet 3 units on Atlanta/Green Bay OVER 50.5 to win 2.7 units (-110)
Los Angeles Rams (-170)
This is a bit of an odd line. The Los Angeles Rams are seen as one of the best teams in the NFL, while the Chicago Bears are seen more as a breakout team. Both teams have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking second and fifth in the league in points per game, respectively. Chicago has featured a top-five defense this season, as well, while Los Angeles has struggled a bit more. The major difference between these two teams is their strength of schedule. The Rams have wins against the Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks (2), Minnesota Vikings, and Los Angeles Chargers, while the Bears have two signature wins against the Seahawks and Vikings. Their other wins have come against lower level competition, and they simply may not be ready for this major of a step up in competition. This spread is entirely too close, and LA makes a great option, even with Mitchell Trubisky coming back from injury.
Bet 3 units on Los Angeles -3.5 spread to win 3 units (+100)
New York Giants (-190)/Washington Redskins (+160)
This game is somewhat easy to project. The New York Giants will likely struggle to score against a dominant Washington Redskins defense, while the Redskins don’t feature an offense that can score against anyone, including New York. Alex Smith and Colt McCoy have both been placed on IR, leaving Mark Sanchez to run the Washington offense. They scored only 13 points against the Philadelphia Eagles with seven of those points coming on a long touchdown from Adrian Peterson. While they have struggled to score, they have also allowed only 21.4 points per game this season, and a matchup against an Eli Manning led Giants offense is far from scary. This game should be one of the lowest scoring games on the week, and there’s still room to hit the under at this point.
Bet 2 units on New York/Washington UNDER 41 to win 1.8 units (-110)
Parlay 2 units on Carolina/Cleveland OVER 47, Indianapolis/Houston OVER 49.5, and Los Angeles Chargers -14.5 spread to win 12.6 units (+629)