Matchups to Attack
Adam Humphries vs P.J. Williams
Adam Humphries struggled quite a bit early this season, but he has been playing at a significantly higher level over the last six weeks. Over that span, he’s averaging 5.5 receptions for 64.3 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 6.8 targets per game. He has scored double digit fantasy points in five of those six games, and he is averaging 17.1 DK points per game over that span. Most importantly, Humphries has scored five touchdowns in his last five games, although one of those games featured a two touchdown performance.
Humphries has played 83% of his snaps for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the slot this season. He’ll face off against P.J. Williams, who has played 85% of his snaps as the New Orleans Saints slot corner. That may not matter, though, as Williams is expected to shadow Humphries regardless of where he lines up on the field. On the season, Williams has allowed a 71% catch rate, while being targeted on 16% of his routes covered. He is allowing 0.37 fantasy points and 1.56 yards per route covered this season, as well. Overall, Williams grades out as a bottom-four cornerback in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. Humphries has found success against better cornerbacks than Williams this season, although there is serious weather concerns in this game at the moment.
Courtland Sutton vs Ahkello Witherspoon
Courtland Sutton is clearly the wide receiver of the future for the Denver Broncos, but he has struggled at times to find success this season. Through 12 games, he’s averaging 2.3 receptions for 46.5 yards and 0.3 touchdowns on 4.9 targets per game. He’s coming off of his best game of the season, though, posting a 4/85/1 line against the Cincinnati Bengals. Sutton saw his role grow a bit when Demaryius Thomas was traded, and he’ll be thrust into the leading receiver role with Emmanuel Sanders injured in practice this week. It’s only a matter of time before we finally see the ceiling that Sutton flashed at SMU.
Sutton has played the majority of his snaps (54%) as the Denver Broncos left outside receiver this season. He’ll play the majority of his snaps against Ahkello Witherspoon, who has played 84% of his snaps as the San Francisco 49ers right outside cornerback. He has allowed a 60% catch rate this season, while being targeted on 21% of his routes covered. He has also struggled, allowing 0.41 fantasy points and 1.58 yards per route covered this season. He has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ third worst cornerback, and he’s a player we have consistently been attacking this season. There have been questions about Richard Sherman shadowing Sutton, which could hurt his value tremendously. With that being said, that doesn’t seem to be the case, and he should get an elite matchup against Witherspoon. Sutton does come with risk, but he also comes with tremendous upside in one of his best matchups on the season.
Davante Adams vs Robert Alford
Devante Adams has been one of the best receivers in the NFL this season. Through 12 games, he’s averaging 7.1 receptions for 92.9 yards and 0.9 touchdowns on 10.6 targets per game. He has scored double digit DK points in each of his 12 games this season, including seven games with 20+ DK points and two games with 30+ DK points. Adams also leads the NFL in red zone targets (25) and red zone touchdowns (10). Furthermore, he has scored a touchdown on 83.3% of his targets inside the 10 yard line, and Green Bay could find themselves in scoring position often this week.
Adams has been the Green Bay Packers left outside receiver this season, playing 52% of his snaps in that position. He’ll get a matchup against Robert Alford, who has played 92% of his snaps as the Atlanta Falcons right outside cornerback. He has been targeted on 16% of his routes covered, allowing a 69% catch rate. He has also allowed 0.38 fantasy points and 1.84 yards per route covered this season. Alford has graded out as the sixth worth cornerback in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. Adams has performed well against some of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, and he gets a significantly easier matchup this weekend.
Matchups to Avoid
Tyler Boyd vs Desmond King
Tyler Boyd has been enjoying a breakout season for the Cincinnati Bengals. He’s averaging 5.8 receptions for 78.2 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 8.1 targets per game in 2018. He has posted double digit DK points in eight of his 12 games this season, including five games with 20+ DK points. With that being said, Boyd has posted fewer than 10 DK points in four games this season. He’s also dealing with a significant downgrade from Andy Dalton at quarterback in Jeff Driskel.
Boyd has played 75% of his snaps as the Bengals slot receiver this season. He matches up against Desmond King, who has played 96% of his snaps as the Los Angeles Chargers’ slot corner in 2018. King has been an elite cornerback in the NFL for the majority of his career, and he has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ best cornerback in the league this season. He has allowed a 72% catch rate, but has only been targeted on 11% of his routes covered. He’s also allowing only 0.2 fantasy points and 1.09 yards per route covered in 2018. Boyd has struggled at times this season, and that could be the case in arguably the most difficult matchup of this slate this week.
DeVante Parker vs Stephon Gilmore
DeVante Parker has struggled with injuries throughout the season, but he has flashed quite a bit of upside. Through only seven games, Parker is averaging 3.0 receptions for 39.7 yards and 0.1 touchdowns on 5.1 targets per game. He has posted one of his best games of the season last week against the Buffalo Bills, recording a 4/43/1 line on seven targets. Parker has also seen seven or more targets in three of his last five games, and he could be in line for another solid role this week.
DeVante Parker has played the majority of his snaps as the Miami Dolphins outside receiver, as he has totaled 85% of his snaps on the outside. Stephon Gilmore has also played the majority of his snaps (85%) as an outside cornerback for the New England Patriots. That won’t matter, though, as Gilmore has shadowed his opponents on a weekly basis this season, and that will be the case again this week. Gilmore is allowing only 57% catch rate, although he has been targeted on 17% of his routes covered. With that being said, he has consistently guarded the best receivers on his opponents team, and he has still graded out as the second best cornerback in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s allowing only 0.24 fantasy points and 1.11 yards per route covered this season, as well.
Nelson Agholor vs Byron Jones
Nelson Agholor started the season off with a pair of solid games, but he has struggled for the most part since then. Through 12 weeks, he’s averaging 4.3 receptions for 43.6 yards and 0.1 touchdowns on 6.6 targets per game. He has scored double digit DK points in only one of his last six games, and that game featured only 13.3 DK points. After the first two weeks, Agholor has scored double digit fantasy points in only two of those 10 games, and he failed to score any DK points in one of those games.
Agholor has played the majority of his snaps as the slot this season, but he has been playing more as the Philadelphia Eagles left outside receiver with Golden Tate in town. He’ll now face off against Byron Jones, who has played 95% of his snaps as the Dallas Cowboys right outside receiver this season. Jones has been consistently been one of the most difficult defenders in the NFL, allowing only a 56% catch rate, while being targeted on 13% of his routes covered. He has also allowed only 0.17 fantasy points and 0.93 yards per route covered this season. Jones has graded out as the third best cornerback in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus, and he’s a defender to avoid on a weekly basis.