Dallas Cowboys (-310)
The Dallas Cowboys have been somewhat of a night and day team at home and on the road. Through seven home games, they are averaging 24.7 points per game, as opposed to only 14.7 points per game on the road. Furthermore, they are allowing only 18.3 points per game at home, while allowing 20.1 points per game on the road. Overall, Dallas ranks fourth in the NFL in points allowed per game, and their offense has taken the next step (aside from last week) since acquiring Amari Cooper. They get an elite matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are allowing 28.8 points per game this season. The Bucs offense has tailed off recently, as well, scoring 12 and 14 points in their last two games. This will be one of their toughest tests to date, and the only real concern is the seven points spread, although I don’t feel that’s too wide at all. Keep in mind, one of these teams is playing for playoffs, while the other is looking for a higher draft pick.
Bet 3 units on Dallas -7 spread to win 2.7 units (-110)
Houston Texans (+110)
This line makes no sense whatsoever. The Houston Texans feature the better offense and defense in this matchup, while the Philadelphia Eagles own the home field advantage. Philadelphia is coming off of a surprising win against the Los Angeles Rams, who simply didn’t look like themselves on Sunday Night Football. Nick Foles is truly a “feel good story,” but he simply isn’t a very good quarterback. On the season, he’s averaging 240.3 yards and 0.3 passing touchdowns in three starts. He currently has more interceptions than touchdowns. Philadelphia will be forced to rely on Foles, as Houston features one of the best run defenses in the NFL. I’ve bet against Foles before, and I’ll do so again. There’s simply no reason to believe a beat up Eagles team should be favorites over Houston, who have won 10 of their last 11 games.
Bet 3 units on Houston +1 spread to win 3 units (+100)
Minnesota Vikings (-265)
The Minnesota Vikings recently went on a short skid, but they’re coming off of a massive win over the Miami Dolphins. Minnesota is currently the sixth seed in the NFC, and they’re playing for the playoffs with the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins only 0.5 games behind them. The Detroit Lions have been eliminated from playoffs, and they have failed to score more than 17 points in any of their last four games. More importantly, this is simply a terrible matchup for Detroit, who relies heavily on their passing attack. Minnesota features one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, and they will force Theo Riddick, Zach Zenner, and LaGarrette Blount to beat them. The Vikings also seemingly have a fully healthy Dalvin Cook to rely on, which changes their offense significantly. Once again, though, I’m siding with the team that has something on the line in this game.
Bet 2 units on Minnesota -6 spread to win 1.7 units (-115)
Parlay 2 units on Atlanta -3.5 spread, New York/Indianapolis UNDER 47, and Kansas City/Seattle OVER 54 to win 12.2 units (+612)