NFL Week 4 DFS GPP Breakdown
Hello all and welcome to my NFL GPP breakdown for Week 4 of the NFL season. For those of you who were here last year, we had a ton of success with this article throughout the year and saw a plethora of screenshots throughout the season of MAJOR wins from in cooperating this article into your weekly research and lineup construction. For those of you who are new, welcome, my name is Bob Viafora and I am one of the lead DFS analysts at DFS Karma. I’ve been with DFS Karma for 2+ years now and looking forward to what our team (and you – the reader) is able to accomplish this season. As a staple of your weekly reading/research, please reach out to me on twitter @DF_Advantage (throw me that follow if you don’t already) each week and let me know how your rosters did as well as sharing any #screenshots you may have. Football is back! Let’s GO!
High Tier: Deshaun Watson ($6300 – DK / $7600 – FD) – On paper through three starts his season, this may not be the greatest of matchups for Watson and the Texans. Houston’s offensive line is 8th in the NFL in sacks allowed and leading the league with QB hits allowed (34). The Colts secondary is for sure better than last season but it’s still below-average, while their defensive line has done a magnificent job at getting to the quarterback shown by a top-5 ranking in sacks through three weeks. Recency bias is going to hurt Watson’s ownership here as he has thrown 7 interceptions through the past five games. With all this being said, Watson has the highest ceiling of any QB on this slate and given his mobility (which has been limited this season and will continue to show more as he gets more comfortable coming off an injury) he may be able to evade sacks and leave the pocket where that wasn’t a concern with Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, and Carson Wentz in the Colts first three games. Watson is known for his aggression as he consistently takes deep shots but we’ve seen in the Colts scheme throughout three weeks that they are taking away the sidelines which is going to force Watson to take these shots over the middle deep. Check out Watson’s completion % when his aDOT is 20-35 yards downfield. It’s his bread and butter. These numbers are WITHOUT the team scheming the ball in this direction.
Now let’s look at two of the most talented receivers in the league in DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. This is their route trees from last week.
We see a lot of routes ran deep over the middle of the field. This is a smash spot for both of these receivers and of course for their quarterback in Deshaun Watson. A lot of #sharp money is coming in on the Texans and I could not love this stack anymore.
Mid-Tier: Mitch Trubisky ($5200 – DK / $6800 – FD) – The North Carolina #goat QB Mitchell Trubisky. This is my first time including him in my NFL GPP article and I am surprised to be doing so after last season. Trubisky has taken big strides through three weeks this season as seen by a bump in completion percentage of 9.2% where his aDOT has come down to 7.6 from 7.8. Trubisky is playing to his strengths this year and an elite defense is helping him do so. In a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have been boosting opposing QB value/volume, we can be confident both will be there for Trubisky this week. Through three weeks the Bucs are 27th in DVOA against the pass and own a secondary in shambles. With Anthony Miller out this week, we get a pretty good idea where the target distribution will be here. Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Trey Burton are the only talented pass-catching options (Jordan Howard obviously will see a few targets) and are all in positions to post a huge stat-line here. Gabriel is my favorite GPP play here (Robinson = chalk against TB slot) as he is 2nd just behind Robinson in snap % (74.3) and should see 2-4 deep shots in addition to his work close to the line of scrimmage. Vegas is telling us this is going to be a big day for the Bears offense and I am buying into the hype. Trubisky-Gabriel-(Robinson/Burton) stacks will be found up and down my GPP lineups come Sunday.
Low Tier: CJ Beathard ($4600 – DK / $6200 – FD) – Ben? Ben Hossler? Is that you? I can honestly say Ben is a CJ Beathard truther and while I may not be as high on him as Ben is long term, I play DAILY fantasy sports and this is the week of Beathard-goat in GPPs at 2%. The Chargers “elite” defense we all expected coming into the season has ranked out 26th in DVOA against the pass. They’re giving up an insane amount of yardage per pass (bottom three in the league) while the loss of Joey Bosa has killed their ability to rush the passer (11 spots lower compared to last season). Beathard is by no means as good as Jimmy G but I think people are buying into how bad he was last season and not looking into what should be possible in this Kyle Shannahan offense with weapons such as Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin, and George Kittle. Beathard wasn’t the 2018 preseason stud he was in 2017 but there is a lot of confidence in this kid around the organization, with Kyle Shannahan quoted saying
“C.J. is very impressive. He was last year in terms of he’s very smart, he always knows the game plan inside and out, he works very hard, he is a thinker and he also is a reactor out there. Going through it the first time and stuff, it’s always slower no matter how hard you work at it. I think he went through the five games or whatever it was that he got to play for us last year, had some ups and downs and then I thought he got to sit back and watch Jimmy and watch someone else try to go through it. I think that helped him going into the offseason. I think when you practice and stuff, you always practice as hard as you can, but when you’ve been through those situations you’re a lot more deliberate in what you are doing. You know why you’re doing it. You’re not just doing it. I think C.J., he listens to everything the coach says. He does everything we ask. But, when you go through it for yourself, then the next year you actually know why you’re working on it. I think when you know the why’s and you have the experience of it, I think it’s a lot easier to improve.”
This is coming after Beathard came out and said how much more comfortable he is in his 2nd year in the league stepping in for the starting QB. Obviously, we need to take quotes with a grain of salt, but the confidence of Shannahan in his now QB1 seems to be there. This will be tested in the number of pass attempts and aggression we see in play-calling in a game the 49ers will almost surely be trailing the majority of the time. 4.6k on Draftkings for CJ Beathard is criminal and I think he crushes his price tag this week. If you love paying down at QB, CJ Beathard is your guy this week.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (FP/$): CJ Beathard
High: Ezekiel Elliot ($7,700 – DK / $8200 – FD) – FEEEED ZEKEEEE! The Cowboys are at home against the Lions in a game where they are favored by 3 and implied for 23.25 points. Right off the bat, home favorite is already a major correlation for RB’s. + for Zeke. Now we get into the Lions defense this season. They are dead last in the league in allowed yards per carry to opposing running backs. In run defense, they are 6th worst in the league in DVOA. Zeke’s involvement in the passing game is trending upwards as he’s seen 4, 6, and 8 targets respectively in Weeks 1-3. He’s been able to hit value in all three weeks without the insane workload we’re accustomed from seeing for Zeke and this should be the week that changes with all these signs pointing to the Cowboys feeding Zeke. We know that the Lions are going to stack the box to limit the run and force Dak to beat them, but if this game gets played out like Vegas thinks it will Zeke will be the one getting alllll the usage come Sunday.
Mid-Tier: Lamar Miller ($5000 – DK / $6500 – FD) – My love for Lamar Miller in this spot comes back to my love for the Texans as a whole. Miller has let people down a bit with his individual stats through three weeks but remains the clear staple and lead back in the Texans high-powered offense where he sees 77% of the RB snaps. Miller should become more consistently involved in the passing game going forward (6 targets last week) especially against a Colts offense that is 2nd in the league allowing receptions to running backs. With everybody and their mother playing Gio Bernard against the Falcons, Lamar Miller makes a lot of sense as a pivot, especially on Draftkings, where he is 1.3k cheaper. Per Next Gen Stats – Lamar Miller is a more efficient runner than other backs such as Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley, and Christian McCaffery. Miller has only seen 8+ defenders in the box on 14.91% of his snaps so we don’t need to be worried about the Colts focusing too much on him. This is a high-upside, salary-relief spot at the RB position.
Low Tier: Chris Carson ($4600 – DK / $6400 FD)- So nobody is talking about how Chris Carson got 34 touches last week?! He’s a lock at 4.6k on Draftkings and priced extremely reasonably on Fanduel at 6.4k. The big question mark here is how healthy Doug Baldwin is and how much will his potential return take away from Carson’s usage. I am not worried however and believe the Seahawks will take a cautious approach with their WR1 while leaning heavier on their backs. There is no doubt the Seahawks have one of the worst offensive lines in the league but Carson is still able to manage positive defensive-adjusted yards above replacement which is a testament to how talented of a back he is. With the Cardinals destined to struggle on offense with Josh Rosen under center, we should see a lot of short fields and goal-line work for Carson. Carson saw all the goal line carries last week and should be something that continues into this week as it’s highly unlikely they trust Rashaad Penny in that situation. Carson could see multiple touchdowns in this game and is a lock for 20+ touches. 4.6k on Draftkings is criminal. Lock.
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Lamar Miller
High Tier: Julio Jones ($8200 – DK / $8600 FD) – WR is where I’m going to really get off the board this week. With my QBs it is common practice to stack them with their pass catchers in GPPs for a higher correlation fo points but we do have a few open positions where I always love to plug in a lower-owned WR at the most volatile NFL DFS position in hopes I can uncover some hidden #nuggets on why so and so wide receiver makes for an elite, high-upside play. This week my WR1 towards the more expensive end of the spectrum is going to be Julio Jones. Recency bias is one of the biggest edges we have in DFS and one that needs to be capitalized in sports such as NFL more than any others. Julio Jones can’t score touchdowns. Julio Jones is the WR2 now that Calvin Ridley has emerged. These are real things people are saying. People are down on Julio Jones and although he’s not going to be the <5% play I look to uncover I think the difference in his value/upside compared to his projected ownership is ridiculous and something that needs to be capitalized on this week. Julio Jones leads the NFL in air yards through three weeks at a ridiculous 548 while maintaining an extremely impressive 16.1-yard aDOT for the type of volume he receives. The Falcons are implied for 28.5 points and Julio Jones is not going to be a top-3 owned player on this slate. Absolutely insane. Calvin Ridley is still going to be third in the team in snaps for WR’s behind Jones and Sanu. Ridley is still projected higher ownership than both of them, including Jones. This is absolutely the worst play on the slate in my opinion. Jones will see his normal volume this week and with his air yards + aDOT where they are the roof is the ceiling for this wide-receiver. (Michael Jordan joke if you didn’t get that.) Check out Julio’s Week 1 route tree which is something similair to what we can expect this week against a mediocre defense.
Mid-Tier:Corey Davis ($5300 DK / $5400 FD) – Corey Davis is going to be one of those 2% plays that you all will be telling your buddy you “Swore you were on him” after reading this article, not playing him in your GPPs, and watching him go off for 120 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday. Delanie Walker is down and Corey Davis is the clear WR1 who will be peppered with targets against the Eagles who have shown vulnerable through the air compared to a run defense ranked 2nd in DVOA. The Titans have not been throwing deep with Mariota or Gabbert so it should be taken with a grain of salt but Davis is seeing an insane amount of his team’s air yards. He’s fourth in the league just behind guys like Odell Beckham Jr., and Julio Jones in his share of his team’s air yards. The reason I say take that with a grain of salt is that he’s about 35th in total air yards across the league. Davis is so cheap on both sites while seeing 85+% of his team’s WR snaps. It’s also notable that the only game the Titans lost/were trailing this season Davis saw 14 targets. In a game in which Vegas implies that the Titans will lose + be trailing I am confident we see Davis’s targets shoot back up to what we saw in Week 1. Buy low on Corey Davis.
Low Tier: Antonio Callaway ($4300 – DK / $4500 – FD)- Last but not least, the Cleveland guys will love this one. Antonio Callaway is one of the best value plays on this slate. Nobody is going to play him with Sterling Shepard and Tyler Boyd right around the same price range on Draftkings, but on Fanduel he makes for cash game consideration and an amazing GPP play at 5% ownership. The Browns are 3 point dogs on the road against the Raiders who are in shambles in terms of defense. They get absolutely zero pressure on the QB (lowest adjusted sack rate in the league) and that has led to their secondary getting shredded as they rank out 31st in DVOA. Notably, with Mayfield under center last week we saw Callaway on the field for three more snaps than Landry, seeing 10 targets. Let’s check out his route tree.
Those two deep shots across the middle is what really draws my attention and makes my mouth water for what we could see in Week 4. The Raiders are running a zone defense that leaves the deep-middle of the field exposed or at least undermanned. They do not have the talent to cover this specific part of the field with the scheme they are running.
As you can see, Callaway is an extremely efficient deep threat reciever (small sample size which is the norm in Football). Baker Mayfield’s signature accuracy is going to play a huge part here as I believe Callaway will be open on at least 2 of these routes again this week. Hit your man, Baker!! Let’s GO!
PERSONAL FAVORITE PLAY (PT/$): Antonio Callaway
Mike Gesicki ($2600 DK / $4400 FD) – This is the play that is going to sink mine and your lineups this week. I have to throw out there that I don’t think you can play Gesicki on Fanduel but at 2.6k on Draftkings I just can’t resist. Gesicki finally got involved in the Dolphins offense last week catching all three of his targets. Gesicki is an absolute freak as you can check out his player profiler for yourself which compares him to Vernon Davis.
This kid is going to be an absolute beast as soon as the Dolphins start utilizing him more. After seeing his targets trend in the right direction he can easily pay off a 2.6k salary on 4-5 targets this week. LOCK him in on Draftkings at 1% owned from a pure talent perspective. The opportunity for Gesicki will spike and then everyone in the DFS community will be playing this man. Stay ahead of the curve.
I will be giving out more of my low-owned GPP’s plays on Sunday morning where I will be hosting an Instagram live show you can find @DFS_Karma on Instagram around 11am. Make sure to stay tuned and thanks for reading! I better see ALLLL the screenshots Monday morning with all of you RAKING in the cash! LET’S GOOOOO! #MONEYTEAM
WRITTEN BY: @ DF_ADVANTAGE – Follow me on Twitter
*THIS ARTICLE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR GPP ENTRY CONTESTS ON DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL. MY GOAL WHEN SHARING MY THOUGHTS/INFORMATION WITH YOU ALL IS THAT THESE PLAYERS COME IN UNDER 10-15% OWNED IN GPP’S. TO FIND PLAYERS THIS LOW OWNED, WE ARE TAKING ON A “BUST RISK”. THIS IS THE TYPE OF RISK AS A GPP PLAYER YOU NEED TO TAKE DOWN A TOURNAMENT. *