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Sam’s Conviction Column – NFL Week 3

Intro

There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks!

Links to other content!

Week 3 Position by Position Breakdown

Week 3 Cash Process

Projections Portal

NFL Game Theory

WR/CB Matchups

Ben’s Week 3 Breakdown! (Article) —- COMING SOON!

Core Plays

 

QB

Lamar Jackson

Karma Position Rank: 3

DK Proj. OWN%            9.4%
FD Proj. OWN%            15.2%

What I Like → One of the safer floors of any fantasy player as a QB that rushes 10+ times a game at a minimum and is 2nd to only Kyler Murray in Points per drop back through the first 2 weeks of the season (0.84 Pts per DB; PFF). Detroit clearly doesn’t have any sort of defense to contain him as they’ve given up an average of nearly 25 DK points to QB in Weeks 1 and 2 (22.8 points on FD) to go along with ranking dead last in Pass DVOA and 3rd to last in Rush DVOA (per FootballOutsiders).

What I Worry About → The only major concern here is the blowout possibility, which I will say I think is relied on too heavily by some, since to get to a “blowout” situation, it would more than likely mean that the starters hammered the opposing team before getting taken out but nevertheless, the only concern is that with a lack of back and forth and Baltimore’s tendency to play a little bit slower, Lamar’s ceiling could be capped.

Tom Brady

Karma Position Rank: 5

DK Proj. OWN%            6.3%
FD Proj. OWN%            5.8%

What I Like → The Bucs have been inside the 5 on 5 occasions through 2 weeks and Brady has thrown the ball every time… the Bucs are behind only the Jags in pass play % with nearly 72% of their plays being a pass and Brady has now moved to 9 TDs on the season after chucking 5 last week and we’re at the point where I don’t even understand how his body is doing this… the Rams are #good so I expect the Bucs to continue throwing at a high clip and continue to drop back around 45 times per game.

What I Worry About → The only concern with Brady has been mostly the same throughout his career and that’s his floor (and probably ceiling 99% of the time) of zero rushing yards… that won’t get me off of him. The other concern I have is that if the Bucs are able to grab a lead or vice versa, are getting stomped and the Bucs just coast or in the other scenario, throw in the towel.

Matthew Stafford

Karma Position Rank: 8

DK Proj. OWN%            6.6%
FD Proj. OWN%            4.9%

What I Like → The Staff Infection has shown some Russ Wilson like efficiency so far this season, only averaging 28-30 drop backs per game, but sporting a 10.98 Adj. Net Yards per Attempt, an 81.1% adjusted completion %, and with the Bucs strong defensive line (4th in Rush DVOA), I think the Rams should be throwing a majority of this game to keep up and with weapons galore in Kupp/Woods/Van Jefferson/Eleanor Higbee, I love the spot for Stafford.

What I Worry About → If Stafford and the Rams (i.e. McVay) slow the game down, as they’ve been known to do, with Stafford not having the volume of 50+ pass attempts, or at least not yet, he’ll need to be extremely efficient to either pay off or hit some sort of tourney-winning ceiling with only 30 or less pass attempts.

Daniel Jones

Karma Position Rank: 7

DK Proj. OWN%            4.7%
FD Proj. OWN%            2.9%

What I Like → I really don’t think I’ve ever written up Daniel Jones, and maybe I’m a fish for doing so, but as Bales and I discussed on our breakdown pod on Wednesday, there’s a clear difference in “good QBs” and “good QBs for fantasy” and Jones certainly fits the latter. Only 2 pass TDs this year, but he is taking nearly 15% of the Giants’ red zone rush attempts, he has 2 rush TDs, and is facing an Atlanta defense that is giving up nearly 30 fantasy points to QBs on average and gave up 62 rush yards on only 7 attempts to Jalen Hurts (running QB) in Week 1.

What I Worry About → The worries are obviously greater than the aforementioned QBs as Jones definitely has tendencies to make a lot of mistakes and his weapons aren’t exactly “studs” but I think even if he is getting hit due to a poor O-Line or makes a poor throw, at his cheap price and surely to be cheap OWN%, he’s worth the risk in GPPs.

RB

Tier 1

Dalvin Cook

Karma Position Rank: 2

DK Proj. OWN%            18.2%
FD Proj. OWN%            18.4%

What I Like → One of the clear bell cows in the league with a 20% opportunity share, (behind only Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon) and facing a Seattle team that just got destroyed by Derrick Henry on the ground. Though it’s a small sample, through 2 weeks, he’s tied with Nick Chubb for the most broken tackles on carries (per PFF) with 14 to go along with a 75% snap share.

What I Worry About → There is some minor concern about the injury tag as he got banged up last week, but it was encouraging to see him come back in the game each time. The other concern is some of Cook’s usage getting game scripted out if the Seahawks go nuclear and get up by a lot of points; however, Zimmer is such a bad coach and obsessed with running, that it’s hard to see Cook’s usage take too much of a hit.

Najee Harris

Karma Position Rank: 3

DK Proj. OWN%            13.5%
FD Proj. OWN%            13.3%

What I Like → It’s certainly hard to look past Najee playing on 97% of the snaps over the first 2 weeks and while he hasn’t been incredibly efficient in terms of fantasy score and is going to struggle all season behind a horrific Pitt O-Line, Najee did force the 2nd most missed tackles in Week 2 (second only to Dalvin; stats per PFF). With Ben banged up (per usual), Diontae hurt, and the Steelers with a lot of questions right now, I expect Najee to continue to see heavy usage and maybe get targeted more often with Ben’s injury status in question.

What I Worry About → I mentioned above the concerns about the Steelers O-Line but it is worth noting that the Bengals rush defense maybe… wait for it… isn’t that bad? At least through these first 2 weeks. Small sample, but Cincy is 2nd in Rush DVOA but let’s just hope that volume trumps matchup in this case.

Jonathan Taylor

Karma Position Rank: 8

DK Proj. OWN%            4.6%
FD Proj. OWN%            7.6%

What I Like → You’ll hear this across the industry, but Taylor leads the league in RZ carries through 2 weeks, with 12, as well as rush attempts inside the 5, with 6, yet has zero TDs. The term “someone is due” is very misleading and ridiculous to me; however, one would think that if that type of usage continues that it would make sense for the TDs to come just based on regressing to the mean… right? The good news for Taylor is that the Titans defense sucks ass and should give him some more opportunities come Sunday.

What I Worry About → There are more concerns here than I’d like which makes Taylor a GPP only play for me, such as the presence of Nyheim Hines but also now Marlon Mack returning could change up the snap shares/usage among the 3 and while this should keep the ownership low, at this price point, it’s certainly not ideal as Taylor probably needs a 20+ point game to be worth it in this spot. Further, if Wentz doesn’t suit up, that could be could for checkdowns to most RBs, and although Taylor is more than capable, we could see more Hines and/or Mack in a game where the Colts are playing catch up.

Chris Carson

Karma Position Rank: 5

DK Proj. OWN%            13.6%
FD Proj. OWN%            8.3%

What I Like → I like that Carson is getting the goal line work as shown by his 2 TDs last week and his Yards/Attempt is strong at 4.21 and approx. 14-16 carries per game with 1-2 targets. Having Russell Wilson’s rushing upside as well as the WR weapons and still getting a decent usage share is encouraging.

What I Worry About → I worry that Travis Homer actually had a higher usage in the pass game last week and while he led RBs in snap share, it was only 63% compared to 78% in week 1. I think a ceiling game is possible against a terrible Vikings D, but his floor also remains very low as shown last week where he scored 2 TDs but only scored 15.1 fantasy points.

Tier 2

Austin Ekeler

Karma Position Rank: 6

DK Proj. OWN%            9.2%
FD Proj. OWN%            14.2%

What I Like → The only reason I have Ekeler in the “Tier 2” is because he’s expensive and his 2 weeks have been quite different in terms of usage but he faces a defense in the Chiefs that is BAD (Chiefs have allowed the most yards before contact through Week 2; per PFF) and a lot of my “concerns” were laid to rest after Ekeler went from zero targets to nine (9!!!) in Week 2. Herbert is a stud but he should continue to use Ekeler as both a safety checkdown and on designed routes/usage.

What I Worry About → There is some concern that the Chiefs come out and barnstorm the Chargers and while Ekeler wouldn’t be “game-scripted” out, his snap % the first 2 weeks were 58%/63% so if the Chargers are getting dusted, they may want to not push the historically injury-prone Ekeler if they’re out of it. Further, Ekeler has had some solid usage in the RZ and inside the 5 through 2 weeks, but I wonder if they give it to either Justin Jackson or rookie Larry Rountree III for some nice LEECHES on the goal line.

Damien Harris

Karma Position Rank: 9

DK Proj. OWN%            5.6%
FD Proj. OWN%            6.9%

What I Like → Damien Harris is tied for 2nd in the league with Joe Mixon (behind freak of nature Henry) in total Yards after Contact this season, with 135, including 3.46 yards after contact/per attempt. He has shown to be mega-efficient so far this season as he was actually out snapped by James White in Week 2 (49% compared to 42%) but saw 16 rush attempts compared to 5 for White. Harris has a wide, wide range of outcomes, but the very low floor always keeps his ownership well under 10%.

What I Worry About → This week Harris faces the Saints who lead the league in yards after contact allowed per carry (PFF) and the White could continue to cut into his snap share, as Harris is averaging 49% through 2 weeks compared to White, who’s averaged 43% through 2 weeks. Further, the biggest drawback of Harris is that he has virtually no receiving upside as he saw 1 target last week and probably won’t see any more than 3 or so the rest of the season.

Saquon Barkley

Karma Position Rank: 13

DK Proj. OWN%            5.9%
FD Proj. OWN%            16.5%

What I Like → First off, given his hilarious price on FD, I assume he’ll be much chalkier there and probably should be. Barkely showed more and more good signs of getting back to full health as shown by his snap share rising from 48% in week 1 to 84% in week 2. The Giants had two very difficult matchups the first 2 weeks, but now gets the dusty Falcons D, who’ve gotten torched on the ground to go along with what I expect should be Barkley-esque usage (only 3 RBs had a higher snap share than Barkley in Week 2 — Najee/Kamara/Mixon).

What I Worry About → Of course the injury will continue to be a concern all season and, given that this is still the Giants and their coaching staff is beyond horrible, Barkley can always be limited by the team and game environment. In his young NFL career thus far, Barkley has had a ton of longer runs to boost up his stats so I do hope, and somewhat worry, that he can get back to that as well as hoping that he gets back the target share that he had in the 2019 season.

Tier 3

Javonte Williams

Karma Position Rank: 29

DK Proj. OWN%            2.6%
FD Proj. OWN%            2.2%

What I Like → Definitely large field GPP player only as he’s part of a timeshare; however, as a rookie Williams has gotten up to a 11.4% opportunity share (about the same as Gordon) and is facing a team in the Jets that has given up, already, 31.2 points on average to RBs this season and Williams could see more opportunities with a potential blowout brewing in Denver. Through 2 weeks, Javonte Williams has averaged the SECOND-MOST forced missed tackles per carry, only trailing Nick Chubb, and ironically, Williams has 27 carries compared to 26 for Chubb. Gordon is still out snapping Williams but in Week 2 they had the same amount of carries and I wouldn’t be surprised for Williams to have a big role Week 3.

What I Worry About → The concerns are obvious in that Williams is still the RB2 in Denver and could see a floor game of hardly any rush attempts/targets as his snap share did slightly decrease last week despite a positive game script (50% week 1, 41% week 2) and while it’s such a small sample, he may have a very low ceiling for targets as he only has 2 through 2 weeks.

WR

Tier 1

Tyreek Hill

Karma Position Rank: 1

DK Proj. OWN%            13.1%
FD Proj. OWN%            21.7%

What I Like → Well what I like is that Hill has an aDOT of 13.4, a YPT of 11.1, averaging 9.5 targets per game good for a 30% team target share, 43% of the air yards, and 3.01 yards per route run (PFF) with an implied team total of 31 points… other than that not much.

What I Worry About → What I worry about is that Mahomes throws 3 TDs to Kelce, one to Hardman or Robinson, CEH gets 1-2 and Hill doesn’t score; that’s a “worry” because while it is football and gambling and variance happens, Hill’s ceiling is such that he’s worth heavy consideration in every matchup, every week.

Keenan Allen

Karma Position Rank: 7

DK Proj. OWN%            17.6%
FD Proj. OWN%            17.8%

What I Like → His price… makes no sense. Keenan is in the same game as Tyreek, as a 6.5 point dog, with Justin Herbert throwing to him (he’s gone 300+ yards in each of his 2 games) and Keenan is seeing 1/3 of the team’s targets and over 1/3 of the team’s air yards. Allen is tied for 6th most targets for all WRs through the first 2 weeks, is averaging over 100 yards per game, and the game environment should be strong with the Chiefs pass happy and elite offense combined with a bad and vulnerable defense.

What I Worry About → I worry that the Chiefs just crush this team and all the air is taken out of the proverbial sails of the Chargers in which Herbert is off and his pass catchers saw as Allen and Mike Williams have closer to a floor game than a ceiling game.

Cooper Kupp

Karma Position Rank: 3

DK Proj. OWN%            21.9%
FD Proj. OWN%            18.4%

What I Like → Kupp has been on nothing short of a tear these first 2 games, with 20 targets, 3 TDs, a Yards per Route Run (PFF) of 4.59 and should line up a majority of his snaps against Ross Cockrell, the slot corner on TB, who is allowing 2.28 yards per route covered (PFF) and an 86% catch allowed rate so far this season. Kupp will be chalky, but rightly so with those stats above to go along with a 38% team target share, 40% of the team’s RZ targets, and 36% of the air yards.

What I Worry About → My sole concern is really only that the Rams have so many weapons that some weeks, like this one, could end up like the Bucs of last year where there are 4-6 viable receivers that it could be somewhat of a guessing game on who is going to be peppered with targets or not.

Tier 2

Robert Woods

Karma Position Rank: 14

DK Proj. OWN%            18.2%
FD Proj. OWN%            18.8%

What I Like → Good to see Woods’ snap share increase from 77% to 98% in Week 2 and while he hasn’t had the explosion back to back weeks that his counterpart, Kupp, has had thus far, Woods has now dropped to below 6k on DraftKings, only 6.1k on FD, to create some serious value at the WR position. Despite being chalk for sure, at an $1100 discount to Kupp, I would be willing to be their Target Share narrows to more similar and that this price difference won’t be around for long.

What I Worry About → The biggest concern is ownership for me and in tournaments, unless he’s part of a stack, I am unlikely to have Woods as a one off because as I mentioned with Kupp, with how many weapons this team has, there’s always the risk (and semi-high risk at that) that one or two of the WRs are left out in the cold. One thing that I do worry about maybe long term is that Van Jefferson has continued to see his snaps/usage go up and while the sample is tiny, he has run more routes (55 compared to 48) than Woods thus far.

DK Metcalf

Karma Position Rank: 4

DK Proj. OWN%            8.1%
FD Proj. OWN%            18.1%

What I Like → Here’s what I like (I think?): Lockett and Metcalf have seen the exact same amount of targets this season (16), they’ve run just about the same number of routes (63 for Metcalf, 62 for Lockett), and are now only $100 difference in price on DK (LOL FanDuel; Metcalf is $800 cheaper over there). Lockett has 3 TDs, Metcalf has zero, and I just have a hard time believing with this similar usage combined with Metcalf seeing 50% of the RZ targets compared to Lockett’s 25% that Metcalf isn’t going to breakout VERY soon (this week). I love Metcalf in tournaments as a legitimate slate breaker against a Vikings defense that’s been crushed by both the Bengals and Cardinals for an average of 57 DK WR points against and 46 FD WR Points against.

What I Worry About → I do worry that Russ continues to connect deep with Lockett on those go-routes and Metcalf continues to see his fair share of usage but doesn’t hit paydirt and pay off that salary… further, Freddie Swain apparently is on the field all the time and while the offense is still quite concentrated, Swain is seeing about 11-12% of the targets through 2 games.

Justin Jefferson

Karma Position Rank: 6

DK Proj. OWN%            7.2%
FD Proj. OWN%            11.8%

What I Like → Similar to how I feel about Metcalf, Justin Jefferson is not going to continue to get out snapped (97% for Thielen; 90% for Jefferson) or run less routes than Thielen… I HOPE and I love the matchup he has this week with Tre Flowers. Jefferson hasn’t been “bad,” at all, as he still has seen 9 targets a game, 46% of the team’s air yards, and a Yards/Route Run of 1.62 (higher than Thielen’s of 1.54). I think Jefferson goes overlooked this week as people who stack up Seahawks with Russ, Hopkins with Kyler, or Tyreek with Mahomes so I love him as an expensive leverage WR.

What I Worry About → I worry that Mike Zimmer is an idiot and will continue to play slow and run the ball despite having a terrible defense. All joking aside, the only concern is that Kirk keeps spreading the ball and using the likes of Conklin/KJ Osborn instead of what we’re used to seeing in the very concentrated attack of Thielen/Jefferson, who we’ve become accustomed to seeing 50+% of the targets at a minimum.

Chris Godwin

Karma Position Rank: 11

DK Proj. OWN%            15.5%
FD Proj. OWN%            11.6%

What I Like → With AB most likely out with COVID, the spot for Godwin is elite as people will chase Mike Evans game last week along with Gronk, who’s now got 4 TDs in 2 games while Godwin has maintained 9 targets a game and over 20% of the team target share. I say maintained because >20% isn’t “elite status” but with how many weapons the Bucs have and Brady’s tendency to spread the ball, it’s unlikely we see any 1 WR on the team getting to a 30% or higher share consistently throughout the season. Godwin should avoid Ramsey a good portion of the game and rack up targets with multi-TD upside.

What I Worry About → This sounds counterintuitive but my biggest concern with Godwin is that while his snap rate has stayed consistent, dropping a bit last week, but still 94% compared to Evans’ 84%, his targets haven’t followed, combined with the fact that Brady/Gronk apparently are on a mission this year in terms of TDs. The spot is great with AB out of the game, but it’s always hard to view the Bucs receivers as a “smash” with Brady using so many receivers.

Tier 3

Marvin Jones Jr.

Karma Position Rank: 21

DK Proj. OWN%            7.8%
FD Proj. OWN%            3.1%

What I Like → Marvin Jones is the clear #1 WR on a bad Jags team that should be trailing just about always, is sub 5k, and averaging 9+ targets per game through Week 2. Seeing 32% of his team’s air yards and a matchup against what I think is not a scary Arizona defense, I think Marvin is a great cash play with tremendous upside that actually makes sense (instead of a punt based on an injury, etc.) given his usage thus far.

What I Worry About → I worry about the fact that the Jags aren’t very good and while Marvin has looked great, throughout his career he’s been a deeper threat guy, as shown by his 15.1 aDOT this season and if the Jags are struggling all day with the Cardinals above average adj. sack rate then Jones could definitely struggle to get free for deep throws.

Darnell Mooney

Karma Position Rank: 35

DK Proj. OWN%            5.7%
FD Proj. OWN%            1.4%

What I Like → Mooney seems like one of the top beneficiaries of Fields being the starter this week as he is a great deep threat that was limited by Dalton not throwing the ball more than 5 yards a pass. Mooney quietly has 38% of the team’s air yards this year and has played more snaps than Allen Robinson through the first 2 weeks. 15 targets through 2 games and now a competent QB, I love Mooney as a GPP play with mega-upside if the Bears can hang.

What I Worry About → I worry that this matchup isn’t the best for the Bears and while we all want to see Fields play over dusty-ass Dalton, he’s still a rookie in his first official start, in an away game, and there could be some growing pains. It doesn’t make me shy away from the likes of Mooney/A Rob, but there are definitely a lot of routes (no pun intended) to a struggling Bears offense and low production games for Mooney/A Rob/Montgomery, etc.

TE

Darren Waller

Karma Position Rank: 2

DK Proj. OWN%            9.4%
FD Proj. OWN%            16.9%

What I Like → Yes, he’s quite expensive, but Waller is seeing 13 targets per game, 30% of his team’s targets, 33% of his team’s air yards, and has the most targets in the league with 25. I’m not sure if anyone can stop him, but I certainly don’t think the Dolphins can either in the middle of the field or in the RZ (Waller has seen 46% of the Raider’s RZ targets). I think Waller ends up VERY low owned as people would rather pay up to Kelce or drop to Hockenson/Fant for around 2k or more of a discount.

What I Worry About → My only worry is that, and it’s actually likely, Waller’s production obviously takes a hit as the sample is only 2 games and averaging that many targets per game is unsustainable. Further, while Derek Carr is having a great season so far, he’s still Derek Carr and very viable to just start chucking interceptions and missing guys left and right.

T.J. Hockenson

Karma Position Rank: 3

DK Proj. OWN%            7.4%
FD Proj. OWN%            7.1%

What I Like → I mentioned Waller has the most targets amongst TEs… well Hockenson has the 2nd most among TEs with 20. The Ravens got lit up by both the Raiders and Chiefs, now granted those are arguably the top 2 TEs in the entire league, but still, their D is not that great and I think Hockenson has well established himself as the #1 option on the Lions. Averaging 9.5 targets per game with a 21.4% team target share, a 37.5% red zone target share, and a game where the Lions should be playing catchup, he could continue to dominate.

What I Worry About → Well… it’s the Lions. There’s always the worry that Goff goes full Goff and completes like 9 passes, targets Hockenson 3 times total for some reason, and they just get stomped by the Ravens all the way through. The other concern is at this price, Hockenson doesn’t need to “go off” necessarily, but at 5200 on DK and 6300 on FD, we’ll need around a 20+ point performance to get what we want for tourney-winning upside.

Tyler Higbee

Karma Position Rank: 10

DK Proj. OWN%            10.4%
FD Proj. OWN%            5.9%

What I Like → I like that Higbee should be at least half the ownership, or more, than last week after he was mega chalk and he rewarded us with 1 catch for 8 yards. Higbee didn’t produce at all last week; however, he still played on 100% of the snaps (also played 100% Week 1) and has run a route on 50 of 59 of Stafford’s drop backs (85%; per PFF).

What I Worry About → The concern is obviously what happened last week where Stafford has a strong game, Kupp goes off, and the Rams score points yet there are so many guys that someone like Higbee is basically out there running wind sprints. If Higbee ends up being one of the chalk TEs come Saturday night/Sunday morning, I don’t think it’s a bad move to pivot to those around him in tourneys while he would still be a very strong cash play based on his cheaper price and high Vegas total game.

Austin Hooper/David Njoku

Karma Position Rank: 35

DK Proj. OWN%            2.8%/<1%
FD Proj. OWN%            1.6%/<1%

What I Like → I put both of these CLE tight ends here as now that Jarvis is out and Odell maybe is back (but he’s also maybe dust?), the Browns should continue to feature heavy 2-TE sets as they have the first 2 games. While obviously these are 2 “punt” options that would be in different lineups, they both have averaged 4 targets a game, 50% of the RZ targets, and both have hovered around low 60% snap share. The differences are that Njoku has shockingly seen 32% (32!) of the team’s air yards, a YPT of 11.8, and has actually run less routes than Hooper. What I gather is that each of these guys could be used as a very volatile TE punt or as part of a stack, but while they’re not playing every down, when they’re on the field they’re being targeted which is so important at this position.

What I Worry About → The worry is obvious… and that’s that the likelihood of either of these guys getting a zero or sub 2-point score is probably similar to the likelihood of a ceiling game of maybe 17-20 points. I think the risk is worth it if playing several tournament lineups, but the floor game is definitely higher than most and the risk of them eating into each other’s production is obvious.

Stacks

Stacking has gotten increasingly popular each year as projections, correlations, and infinite amounts of information and stats available; however, in general, “the field” (large field GPPs) still don’t stack nearly enough. Per Mike Leone from EstablishTheRun, the field played double stacks approximately 29% of the time in the weekly milly maker, which double stacks finished in the Top 100 nearly 40% of the time. Going further, the field had a bring back opponent, i.e. QB + WR + WR + an opposing team’s WR/TE (mostly WR) approximately 35% of the time yet lineups with a bring back finished in the Top 100 53% of the time.

The left side of this table shows our 5 stacks and opponents with the Vegas total at open and the current Vegas total along with the team’s QB/RB and then Top 2 WRs (based on DK Price), TE, and the opposing team’s Top 2 WRs (again, based on DK price). On the right side, we can use the stack’s projected points, which for all players and positions can be found here, and provide how much of the salary cap is used, total projected ownership, and finally “OWN% Value”, which evaluates the projected points of the stack compared to the total ownership to see if there is leverage along with upside.

DraftKings Stacks – See below for some of my favorite stack options (click on image to enlarge)

FanDuel Stacks – See below for some of my favorite stack options (click on image to enlarge)

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