The Ultimate Game-by-Game NFL DFS Breakdown for Week 6
Welcome everyone to my sixth game-by-game breakdown of the 2018 NFL season! If you read this article last season, welcome back! And if you’re new here, grab a seat! My goal here is to give you my overall thoughts on each game and narrow down my overall player pool for you. I’m predominately a cash game player, but I do play in more tournaments for football than I do baseball and basketball. My cash game pool will be narrowed down even further in my Building Blocks article that will also be available here via DFS Karma on Friday’s. Let’s get it!
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Vegas Insight: Eagles 23, Giants 20.75
Quarterbacks: This is a pretty big real-life game when factoring in the divisional race, but the 44 O/U leaves a bit to be desired for daily fantasy outside of the showdown slate. Carson Wentz has improved with each start he has made, but it looks like Olivier Vernon will make his season debut for the Giants tonight so they should have somewhat of a pass rush in this game tonight. Eli Manning is probably the least sexy name at Quarterback in fantasy football at this point, but he hasn’t been that bad over the last few games and I’ve harped on attacking this Eagles secondary for the entire season. That being said, the strength of the Eagles defense is their pass rush, which could spell trouble for an offensive line as bad as this Giants one is, even now that Ereck Flowers is out of the picture.
Running Backs: With Jay Ajayi on IR, and Corey Clement likely to return, we are looking at pretty much a split between him and Wendell Smallwood. It’s tough for me to pick one, because at that point you are banking on selecting the one that scores a touchdown, which is really tough to count on. I expect, if healthy, Clement to get a few more touches but Smallwood has been decent for them. If I was playing one of these guys in the showdown slate, I would just pair them together to lock in the majority of the Eagles backfield workload, and then you don’t have to worry about the one you don’t have scoring.
Saquon Barkley joined Adrian Peterson and Kareem Hunt last week being the third ever running back to go over 100 all-purpose yards in his first five games. He’s been nothing short of spectacular running behind this terrible offensive line, and his value in the passing game has been what has kept him afloat for the most part (and a few long runs). This is one of the toughest matchups in the league on the ground against the Eagles, so he pretty much is going to need a big play or a massive passing volume game (think the Dallas game) for him to pay off.
Pass Catchers: We want to attack this Giants defense over the middle, much more than on the outside with guys like Janoris Jenkins playing there. Given that, the guys in the Philly passing game I’m focused on are Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor. Ertz has seen 10+ targets in every game, and while the Giants have actually been #notbad against tight ends this season, Ertz is one of the best in the game.
As for the Giants, I love both Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard in this matchup with the Eagles secondary. OBJ finally had a big game last week, and he’s really been due for the whole season given the amount of targets he’s seen. Shepard will be in for a full workload once again without Evan Engram, and if Eli Manning can give anything in this game it should be able to stay pretty close.
Overall Outlook: This isn’t a super inspiring game for me outside of showdown or single game slates, but it does have big-time implications in real-life. I expect the Giants to be highly-motivated needed to win this game to stay in the divisional race, and I think OBJ makes the most sense for a captain or MVP slot. I also like Shepard, like I mentioned above, as well as Ertz, Agholor and both Eagles backs in that order.
Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins
Vegas Insight: Bears 22.5, Dolphins 19.5
Quarterbacks: We are going to kick-off the Sunday main slate with a pretty slow-paced, relatively boring fantasy game. Mitchell Trubisky had an absolutely monster game at home prior to their bye against the Buccaneers, but this is quite a different scenario on the road with an ugly 42 O/U.
If you have read any of my content ever, you pretty much know my thoughts on Ryan Tannehill. Adam Gase does not want to throw the ball often, and that ultimately caps both upside and my overall interest.
Running Backs: The one place I am interested in attacking in this game is the Bears run game. Jordan Howard had a pretty underwhelming game against the Bucs, but I think it was clear that Matt Nagy wanted to attack through the air and he set up his game plan to do so. This week sets up much better for Howard and I could see him getting a steady diet of carries and having a chance to really have a breakout game. That doesn’t mean I’m not interested in Tarik Cohen, but more so for GPPs with Howard being more in play for cash games for me.
I’m not even going to begin to think about why the Dolphins won’t feature Kenyan Drake, because I don’t want to tilt too hard while writing this. The matchup overall is really poor against this Bears defense, anyways.
Pass Catchers: Given the slow pace, and my lack of interest in the Quarterbacks in this game, I’m really not focused on the pass catchers either. I do think you can take some tournament shots with Allen Robinson and Trey Burton, who both work mainly over the middle of the field and should avoid the bulk of Xavien Howard coverage.
Cash Game Outlook: Jordan Howard
GPP Outlook: Tarik Cohen, Allen Robinson, Trey Burton
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets
Vegas Insight: Jets 23.75, Colts 21
Quarterbacks: This is one of the more boring games for fantasy purposes, though there are a few plays I am considering. It pretty much appears we can fully put the concerns with Luck’s shoulder to bed. They still aren’t throwing deep, but he continues to lead the NFL in pass attempts by a wide margin and with so much uncertainty in the run game they are going to keep throwing. I don’t think I want him in cash games with just a gross total and game environment, but you can certainly give him a look as a low-owned tournament play.
As for Sam Darnold, there’s no reason to consider him in DFS this week especially in a non-shootout game. With how the Jets are using him during the infant stages of his career, he’s highly touchdown dependent and you are going to need 3-4 of them for him to smash and I just can’t expect that each week.
Running Backs: Nyheim Hines is someone I really like for the rest of the season, and someone I was interested in to begin the week, but with Marlon Mack back it’s going to be tough for me to trust that outside of a tournament dart. Hines has seen fantastic usage both in the run game and passing game over the last two weeks, but that came without Mack available and with him back I don’t want to target a backfield with three bodies that will see work.
The Jets exploded last week rushing for over 300 yards on the ground and Isaiah Crowell soaked up most of that with a 219 yard performance. That’s all well and good, but he still saw five less carries and than Bilal Powell and is not as involved in the passing game. This is a good matchup on paper, but it’s really tough to trust either guy in cash games when it is pretty much a true timeshare. You can certainly fire up either, in GPPs however.
Pass Catchers: With Jack Doyle and TY Hilton missing this game, the one guy we can focus on for Indy is Eric Ebron. Yes, he’s the highest priced tight end on DraftKings (LOL) but he has seen 11, 10 and 15 targets over the last three games without Doyle. He already has five touchdowns this season and he is viable in all formats again this week. I will note that Ebron missed practice again on Thursday, so someone like Erik Swoope could be thrust into play should he miss this game. Watch this weekend for an update.
Robby Anderson exploded last week, dusting Bradley Robey for 123 yards and two touchdowns on just three catches. He can have ceiling games like that, but with Darnold not throwing the ball much and the Jets focusing on the run game to help out their rookie QB it’s not something we can count on week to week. Quincy Enunwa is the one guy we can look at in the Jets passing game, he still has a huge share of Darnold’s targets but if they jump out to a lead at home here it’s going to negatively affect his usage. His ceiling is not high enough for cash games.
Cash Game Outlook: Eric Ebron
GPP Outlook: Nyheim Hines, Andrew Luck, Isaiah Crowell, Bilal Powell, Quincy Enunwa
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
Vegas Insight: Texans 25.5, Bills 15.5
Quarterbacks: This is a pretty ugly game overall, the Bills have been able to limit damage and keep games close at home but outside of the random outlier Vikings game they have been extremely bad on the road. Josh Allen is athletic and has rushing upside, as we have seen a few times this season, but he isn’t someone we want to use in daily fantasy.
Deshaun Watson, on the other hand, remains one of the highest floor Quarterback options weekly, but I am a bit concerned with his injury. He took a pounding Sunday night against Dallas running the ball, and while he will be good to go for this game he could be somewhat limited running the ball which does affect his floor and ceiling. Given his price, I don’t think you need to go there in cash games but as a big home favorite you can still consider him viable in tournaments.
Running Backs: I’m going to group the run games together here because I don’t have any interest. LeSean McCoy finally got involved last week, almost matching his season-total of touches in one game, but this matchup is too tough for me to consider him. The Texans shut down Zeke Elliott on Sunday night, so my confidence in Shady is not very high. For the Texans, I only have interest if Lamar Miller were to miss this game. Alfred Blue had a huge game on Sunday night last week, but with Miller expected to be back in the fold it should be more of a committee.
Pass Catchers: This is where things get interesting. DeAndre Hopkins was originally not on my list, in an expected matchup with stud corner Tre’Davious White, but with White missing practice time this week due to an ankle injury it is a situation to monitor. If White ends up playing, I have a ton of interest in Will Fuller in tournaments, and Keke Coutee in cash games. Coutee remains under $5,000 on DraftKings and with seven and 15 targets in his two games he can certainly dust this defense over the middle of the field.
For the Bills…just move on (LOL).
Cash Game Outlook: Keke Coutee
GPP Outlook: Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller
Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders
Vegas Insight: Seahawks 25.75, Raiders 22.75
Quarterbacks: This is sneakily one of the more attractive games of the weekend with a solid 48.5 O/U in Vegas, and with the game taking place in London. I want to be interested in Russell Wilson after his solid game vs the Rams last week, but I see the Seahawks being able to jump out to a lead here resulting in a run-first Chris Carson game incoming. He is still Russ, and has upside if they are trailing, but I’d only go there in a GPP.
Carr had a bit of a letdown game last weekend against the Chargers, but I’m fine with targeting him against this Seahawks defense that is going to continue to struggle without Earl Thomas. I don’t think he is that great of a cash game play relative to some of the other $6,000 and below plays this week, but I won’t hate on anyone playing him anywhere.
Running Backs: This is my favorite area of this game, starting with Chris Carson. So, over Carson’s last two games he has 100+ yards in each of them with 32 and 19 rushing attempts. I’m going to peg him for another 20+ here, and the matchup with the Raiders couldn’t get better. They’ve allowed the second most touchdowns on the ground through five weeks, and you can even look at Mike Davis in GPPs as a pivot off of Carson.
We get a classic #RevengeNarrative with Lynch meeting up with his former team, the Seahawks. He saw just 11 touches last week, but the Raiders were in catch up mode from the start and while I think Seattle wins this game they aren’t going to blow anyone out. I get people wanting to play him, and I like him in tournaments, but just drop to Carson for cash games and move on.
Pass Catchers: The passing games on both sides are filled with GPP options, and nobody I have much conviction on. Doug Baldwin was on the field a ton last week, but he saw just one target and burned a lot of people that went with him in cash games. Oakland, like the Chargers/Browns, are much better on the outside and over the middle so this sets up for a Baldwin-type game and the workload was never the question. It’s tough to stomach in cash after the dud last week, but I prefer Baldwin to Lockett by a good margin in Week 6.
On the Raiders side of the ball, the Seahawks have been surprisingly good against the pass this season but I anticipate that to change the longer we go without Earl Thomas. You can fire up Amari Cooper, Jared Cook, even Jordy Nelson in GPPs but there are much better cash game plays in their pricing tiers.
Cash Game Outlook: Chris Carson
GPP Outlook: Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Doug Baldwin, Amari Cooper, Jared Cook, Marshawn Lynch
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Insight: Vikings 26.75, Cardinals 16
Quarterbacks: This is one game that I haven’t been able to get a strong read on yet this week. Josh Rosen has opened up this Cardinals offense, but he hasn’t been efficient and it’s pretty hard to count on him in this spot on the road, with below-average coaching and a truly horrid offensive line.
Kirk Cousins ranks third-overall in the NFL in passing attempts, but I don’t see how we can count on him or the Vikings to keep their foot on the gas in a game they should be winning. The strength of the Arizona defense is their secondary, and I won’t be looking at Cousins in anything but a GPP.
Running Backs: Both of the running backs in this game, should Dalvin Cook miss this game, are interesting plays. David Johnson is all the way down at $5,900 on DraftKings…does he have a ceiling at that price? Yes. Can we really count on him? No. He put up 21 fantasy points last week, and that was with two touchdowns. Take even one of those away and he had a pretty rough game and he still isn’t getting involved in the passing game like he should be.
Latavius Murray is not someone that is super involved in the passing game, making him better suited for the FanDuel scoring system, but he should see the bulk of the work against a Cardinals defense that has given up some monster fantasy games to opposing running backs this season. He should also benefit from the expected game-flow, so be sure to include Murray in your GPP player pool should Cook get ruled out.
Pass Catchers: I was so excited that Christian Kirk hooked up with Josh Rosen for that long touchdown last week, because I am a Kirk believer long-term. That being said, he is best utilized in the slot and he isn’t going to be a strong DFS option until Larry Fitzgerald misses a game or retires.
The Vikings receivers are definitely playable in all formats regardless of matchup, especially Adam Thielen. Yeah, Thielen has a huge price tag, but he is on pace to utterly destroy the target record for a season and usage like that has such huge value on a website like DraftKings. I probably would lean Julio over him, but he is playable in all formats once again. The same can be said for Diggs, but to a lesser degree. He isn’t being fed the volume Thielen is, but he is still having a huge year and they will be able to move him around and get him away from Patrick Peterson coverage when they want to on Sunday.
Cash Game Outlook: David Johnson (maybe?), Adam Thielen
GPP Outlook: Stefon Diggs, Kirk Cousins, Latavius Murray
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Insight: Falcons 30.5, Buccaneers 27
Quarterbacks: Much like the Week 4 slate, there are a few highly-attractive DFS games and then a bunch of middle of the road games. This game, with a monster 57.5 O/U in Vegas, is going to be the focal point of the slate and of the ownership. Matt Ryan is expensive, but in a fantastic spot as these teams have a history of shootouts corresponding with the massive O/U. With guys like Todd Gurley priced at $10,000 on DraftKings, it’s looking like a spend-down week at Quarterback which vaults Matt Ryan to the top of the tournament QB list.
On the other side of this game, we have Jameis Winston set to make his first start of the season after replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick prior to their bye week, and he couldn’t find himself in a better spot. He has a strong history against this Falcons defense, and they are so banged up that I’m pretty confident in most QB’s in the NFL being able to put up a good fantasy game against them. With how bad this Bucs defense is on the other side, I don’t see how this doesn’t end up a shootout and Winston is going to be chalky at his price across the industry. He is a strong play in all formats in Week 6.
Running Backs: It looks like Devonta Freeman is going to miss this game, which is going to go back to what we had a few weeks ago with Tevin Coleman stepping into the Freeman role and Ito Smith filling what Coleman’s role typically is. I have Coleman pegged for 17-21 touches this week, which I like, but the way to attack this Bucs defense is though the air and the presence of Smith does concern me. Smith vultured a touchdown last week, even with Freeman active and the Falcons clearly like what he has brought to the table thus far.
The Buccaneers run game has been a stone disaster this season, with Ronald Jones being a healthy scratch in all but one week and with Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers looking pretty awful. I will avoid this situation entirely in favor of the passing game.
Pass Catchers: This is where things get exciting, as there are a ton of strong plays here in all formats. I know you guys don’t want to here this, but Julio Jones is in an absolute smash spot this week and he is priced back under $8,000 on DraftKings. He has 10 touchdowns in 12 games against this Bucs defense, and are we forgetting what the Bears did to them two weeks ago? He continues to rank top-five in the NFL in air yards — per airyards.com — and it’s going to be hard for me to not include him on my main team this weekend. Mohamed Sanu had a solid game last week, and he continues to out-snap rookie Calvin Ridley. You can certainly use Ridley in a GPP, but if you need a cheaper Falcons player for cash games I would go with Sanu or even Austin Hooper at tight end.
Mike Evans has seen nine or more targets in each of the last three weeks, and he has been a much more efficient pass catcher this season than in years past. I want everyone I can get against this Falcons defense at this point, and stacking Julio Jones and Mike Evans looks like a likely route for cash games as of Thursday. DeSean Jackson would be the next guy I want for the Buccaneers, but his price on DraftKings has priced him out of cash games for me, but his upside in GPPs in un-matched. Chris Godwin continues to be out-snapped by Adam Humphries, but citing Humphries sub-3.0 aDOT it’s kind of hard for me to consider him despite the strong matchup in the slot. Godwin has more upside at his price, but I’m not sure if you really want to go there in cash games. It looks like Cam Brate is setting up to be the chalk at tight end, but I really don’t like that play the more I’ve dug in. The matchup is fantastic, but it actually looks like OJ Howard may be able to go, and even when Howard has missed Brate has failed to play more than 60% of the snaps in a game this season. There are other cheap tight ends I’ll take a chance on at lower ownership.
Cash Game Outlook: Matt Ryan (doubt I’ll pay this high), Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Austin Hooper
GPP Outlook: Matt Ryan, Tevin Coleman, Ito Smith, DeSean Jackson, Adam Humphries
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
Vegas Insight: Chargers 22.75, Browns 21.75
Quarterbacks: Oh boy, as a Browns fan, I am very very excited to watch this game on Sunday afternoon, but for fantasy I’m not sure if I really want either of these Quarterbacks in DFS. The Chargers have been notoriously underwhelming traveling east for 1 PM games, and the Browns defense has been strong against against opposing QB’s to start the season. Philip Rivers has had an extremely hot start to the season, but the Browns have limited the likes of Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees to bad games thus far. He’s in play for tournaments, but I’ll definitely pass in cash games.
Much has been made of this Chargers defense this season, who have severely missed Joey Bosa, but they also haven’t been as bad against the pass as you think. Through five games, they have allowed a Quarterback to top 300 yards just once (Jared Goff) and while I am excited for Baker Mayfield, the matchup is tough. I will say, the Ravens secondary that he threw for 300+ yards against last week is much better than this one, so while I could see both QB’s having nice games here I’m going to allocate my money towards them in tourneys rather than cash games.
Running Backs: The Chargers run game is going to be the big question in this game when it comes to cash. With Todd Gurley coming in at $10,000, and Melvin Gordon providing nearly $2,000 in savings despite a tough matchup with the Browns, we have some key decisions to make. The Browns are top-ten in DVOA against the run this season, and were really good against Alvin Kamara in the passing game as well. Gordon is a volume-play and having scored in four straight games we know that if they get into the red zone, he’s going to be heavily involved. I think Gordon vs Gurley vs McCaffrey is the biggest question this week, and you’re going to have to wait for my Building Blocks article to get my full thoughts. I also am lowering expectations for Austin Ekeler given the difficulty of this matchup.
Carlos Hyde is in play for tournaments, but nothing more than that. He has 16+ touches in every game this season, which I like a lot, but he also has seen no more than three targets in a game. He’s a better play on FanDuel where it’s more touchdown dependent as well.
Pass Catchers: The passing games in this game are very interesting for GPPs, as both of these defenses scheme targets to the middle of the field. The Browns have allowed a few big chunk plays after the catch this season, so that does set up well for Keenan Allen. Allen is the top overall GPP play here in tournaments, and you can take a shot with Mike Williams as well if you need some salary savings.
The scheming targets to the middle of the field sets up perfectly for both Jarvis Landry and David Njoku. Landry has seen 10+ targets four times this season and I expect his rapport with Mayfield to continue to grow week after week. I covered Njoku in my weekly takeaways email that goes out to people on our email list, as Njoku saw a season-high 11 targets last week. His value will continue to increase with Mayfield’s willingness to throw over the middle of the field, and he is one of the tight ends I would prefer to Cam Brate in Week 6.
Cash Game Outlook: Melvin Gordon, David Njoku
GPP Outlook: Philip Rivers, Baker Mayfield, Keenan Allen, Jarvis Landry, Austin Ekeler
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins
Vegas Insight: Redskins 23, Panthers 22
Quarterbacks: Both of these teams play relatively slow, so it’s not a game I really want to go out of my way to attack in daily fantasy. Despite this Redskins team getting shredded on Monday night in New Orleans, they still rank top-ten in pass-defense DVOA and I’m not sure I want to count on Cam against them on the road.
Alex Smith has done nothing but prove that Kirk Cousins is better than him this season, and with Chris Thompson, Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson all injured I’m going to have to pass on him in all formats.
Running Backs: Christian McCaffrey is the focus of this game and him vs Melvin Gordon is going to be a pretty big decision this week. As of now, I think I lean McCaffrey in that matchup just given the usage he has seen recently. He hasn’t had a huge passing performance over the last two games, but has still put up over 20 fantasy points in each game and we haven’t seen a perfect storm game from him yet where he has the monster game with a touchdown. I think his floor his higher without the presence of an Austin Ekeler and he is playable in all formats again this week.
I don’t have much interest in Adrian Peterson in this matchup, and Chris Thompson is someone you can look at in tournaments but only if his injury situation clears up this weekend.
Pass Catchers: With the slow pace of this game and the difficulty of the matchup with the Redskins secondary, I most likely will pass on Devin Funchess and Greg Olsen if he returns. If you play Cam Newton in tournaments, it makes the most sense to pair him with McCaffrey to me.
On the Redskins side, we can definitely look at Jordan Reed especially if one of the injured Redskins happens to be inactive. He saw just two targets last week, but he is one of the highest upside tight ends on a slate where Eric freaking Ebron is the highest priced option at the position. Jamison Crowder can also fall under the GPP dart section, as the Panthers have struggled to cover slot receivers early on in 2018.
Cash Game Outlook: Christian McCaffrey
GPP Outlook: Jordan Reed, Cam Newton, Jamis Crowder
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas Insight: Bengals 27.5, Steelers 25
Quarterbacks: We close the 1 PM games with one of the best overall spots for offense despite this being a divisional clash. Per Rotoworld’s Rich Hribar, Ben Roethlisberger has put up a top-ten fantasy game juts twice in his last 22 road early start games. Despite the juiciness of this matchup, this is one of the scenario’s I don’t target with Ben so I will mainly focus on the weapons in this Steelers offense this week.
For the Bengals, Bill Lazor has brought this offense to life and Andy Dalton has been playing extremely good football despite the Bengals being crushed by injuries over the last two weeks. This Steelers defense has not been good this season, and I’m fine with Dalton in all formats as a home favorite this week.
Running Backs: Both of the running backs in this game are strong plays, so I’m going to go ahead and list them together. Both of Joe Mixon and James Conner are heavily-involved in the passing games for their teams, and they are directly under the Gordon/McCaffrey tier on DraftKings. Mixon was not limited whatsoever in his first game back from a knee procedure, and he should be in line for another huge workload with Gio Bernard still sidelined. If I had to pick one, I would probably go with Mixon just given he is the home favorite but they are neck-and-neck for me and playable in all formats.
Pass Catchers: Both Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster are both in play weekly, but I don’t see myself using them in cash games over Julio Jones at their prices. I definitely want exposure in GPPs, however, and this is a definite game-stack type environment.
On the Bengals side, some of the biggest news last week was that the Steelers finally allowed Joe Haden to shadow and he did so with Julio Jones. He limited Jones in a big way, and I expect him to shadow Green this weekend who has has pretty much never had a big game against Haden even when he was in Cleveland. This sets up perfectly for Tyler Boyd in the slot, who has affected by Lazor moving AJ Green around last week. If Haden follows around Green, Boyd will eat this Steeler defense alive and people might be off him after a down game last week. You can also look at CJ Uzomah as a cheap tight end play and a way to get some exposure to this huge O/U.
Cash Game Outlook: Andy Dalton, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, CJ Uzomah, James Conner
GPP Outlook: Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster
Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas Insight: Ravens 22, Titans 19.75
Quarterbacks: This might be the most boring overall game of the weekend, so I’m going to group both of these teams together in my analysis for the most part. Joe Flacco got beat the Browns for the first time in his career last week, and I don’t have much interest on the road in a low total against a solid Titans secondary. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have a top-five defense in the NFL and Marcus Mariota has been so up-and-down that I’m not going to use him in DFS in this matchup.
Running Backs: One of two players I think you can use in this game is Buck Allen. Please, nobody call him Javorious, It’s Buck and if you don’t call him Buck you are a confirmed fish. Anyways, Allen has been really good this season despite splitting time with Alex Collins, though this Ravens run-defense ranks fourth overall in DVOA. He provides value in the passing game, so you can look at him in GPPs but that’s definitely not a cash game option. The Titans were supposed to have a good offensive line coming into the season, but they have dealt with some key injuries and it’s really capped Henry/Lewis upside. They are still playing in a legitimate timeshare, and that’s something I generally avoid in DFS.
Pass Catchers: The play I’m really excited about here is John Brown. He’s been a legitimate beast for the Ravens this season, he’s getting looks all over the field and he comes in first overall in the NFL in air yards. They have transformed him from a deep threat into an overall solid wideout and he is still extremely affordable on all sites. He’s coming off a season-high 14 targets against the Browns, and although this game environment is gross I think he is playable in all formats.
Cash Game Outlook: John Brown
GPP Outlook: Buck Allen
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys
Vegas Insight: Jaguars 22, Cowboys 20
Quarterbacks: This is another gross game, but there are a couple viable plays. We got prime garbage time Blake Bortles last week putting up a monster game after the Chiefs jumped out to an easy lead, but that isn’t going to happen this week against the Cowboys. I get that Bortles is much better without Leonard Fournette, but this is going to be a slower-paced game and the Cowboys secondary is not as bad as the Chiefs.
Dak Prescott has been a victim of the limited weapons he has at his disposal, I’ve been on him for season-long and DFS all year and I’m going to continue to hold the same opinion.
Running Backs: Both of the backs in this game are playable, and I anticipate them to be pretty decently owned. TJ Yeldon has been fantastic all season, and I am a believer in him long-term if he actually got an opportunity. He’s really good in the passing game and with Fournette and Grant both out he should dominate work once again. Yes, they signed Jamaal Charles, but you aren’t going to convince me that he will offer much coming off the street.
Zeke Elliott is priced all the way down to $7,000 on DraftKings given the nature of this matchup with the Jaguars, but that springs him to the top of my tournament list. Yes, it’s a bad matchup, but he’s still going to get 20+ touches, catch passes, and that price is too cheap for his ability. I think I prefer Joe Mixon in cash games, but I definitely want some Zeke exposure in GPPs.
Pass Catchers: The Jaguars have so many options in the passing game, it’s hard for me to really consider them great plays. You can throw darts with Keelan Cole or Dede Westbrook, but I wouldn’t take them over guys like John Brown, Keke Coutee or Mohamed Sanu in cash games.
On the Cowboys side, just see my analysis of Dak Prescott…sheesh.
Cash Game Outlook: TJ Yeldon
GPP Outlook: Ezekiel Elliott
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos
Vegas Insight: Rams 29.5, Broncos 22.5
Quarterbacks: We close the Week 6 slate with one of the most overall attractive fantasy games, but there also are some snow concerns for this game. I will come right out and say, I’m not concerned about the snow whatsoever. It’s going to be decently warm there on Sunday, so the ground won’t be frozen and wind is much more negative for Quarterbacks than rain or snow is. As long as there aren’t crazy winds, I’m treating this game like there’s no weather. Jared Goff has been extremely good this season, and I am interested in him at his price on DraftKings against a definite pass-funnel defense despite what they did last week, but my interest is going to be contingent on whether or not Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp play. If they are both in, I definitely want some Goff exposure.
On the Broncos side of the ball, I love taking home underdogs in expected shootouts, and this Rams defense is extremely banged up, but there is just no way I can risk actual dollars on Case Keenum given how he has looked recently.
Running Backs: Todd Gurley is one of the focal points of the slate on DraftKings priced at $10,000. It’s going to be tough to fit him in at that price, but I do believe he is priced affordably. You are basically locking in a 20 point floor, and that type of point value goes such a long way in cash games. I don’t need to sit here and tell you how good of a play Todd Gurley is each week, but this week it’s just coming down to whether or not we get value to fit him in.
For the Broncos, they have a tandem of promising rookie running backs in Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, and while I like both, I can’t use one in DFS when they both split touches the way they do. I’m not trying to guess which one is going to score a touchdown.
Pass Catchers: The Rams pass catchers are going to be in play, but again it’s going to depend on the availability of Cooks/Kupp. I like Robert Woods regardless of wether not they play, and if they do play I have interest in all three as stacking partners with Jared Goff. If both of them are held out, we can look at Josh Reynolds as a potential punt WR play.
Emmanuel Sanders is in play for tournaments weekly, but I would prefer to attack the Rams on the outside right now with some of their CB injuries. That has me focused on Courtland Sutton, who finally got in the end zone last week and looks like he is going to be a stud in the NFL. He’s still priced under $4,000 on DraftKings, and while I would prefer that he didn’t have Keenum as his QB, that type of price puts him in play.
Cash Game Outlook: Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Courtland Sutton
GPP Outlook: Jared Goff, Emmanuel Sanders, Brandin Cooks/Cooper Kupp (If active)
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
All air yards data provided via airyards.com