The Ultimate NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 15 - DFS Karma
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The Ultimate NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 15

Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills

Vegas Insight: Bills 20.5, Lions 18.5

Quarterback: This is one of the most disgusting O/U’s of the season, so naturally we are going to want some DFS action here in Week 15! I’ll keep it brief, and state that to me right now, it’s down to Josh Allen vs Lamar Jackson for my cash game QB. I get everyone saying that Detroit has held QB’s running, but outside of an injured Cam Newton, have they seen anyone with the ability on the ground of Allen? Nope! Allen either throws the ball deep, or runs, and while that gives him an incredibly low floor, it gives him quite the ceiling and he is still affordable on DK.


Running Back: As you can tell, I’m pretty much fading the Lions here, but given my interest in Allen, I’m looking at some of the other Bills in tournaments. LeSean McCoy looks in question this week, and if he misses that gives us a dirt cheap Chris Ivory, who has actually not been bad when filling in for Shady this season. He makes sense in GPPs should Shady miss, and I prefer him to Doug Martin as a home favorite.


Pass Catchers: Some will bring up Robert Foster and Zay Jones here, but if I’m taking a stab on a Bills pass catcher it’s going to be Isaiah McKenzie. He mixes in rushing as well, which raises his floor, but he has moved into the slot full-time and that;s the most +EV place to attack the Lions right now on defense.


Cash Game Outlook: Josh Allen


GPP Outlook: Isaiah McKenzie, Chris Ivory (If Shady Out)


Oakland Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals

Vegas Insight: Bengals 24.5, Raiders 21.5

Quarterback: With Chargers/Chiefs and Saints/Panthers + two Saturday games on tap for Week 15, we have a completely watered down main slate. That has me focusing quite heavily on this game for tournaments, especially when I expect Steelers/Patriots and Colts/Cowboys to be the main focuses of the public. These are two horrid defenses, and I fully expect there to be points scored in this game, and a good shot at the over if you’re betting. Derek Carr has actually not been as #bad as you would think if you dog into the numbers, and by bad I mean, not that far off from what he has been his entire career. He’s coming off back-to-back 20+ DK point games, and now gets the Bengals? Sign me up. I’m not sure I can go there in cash games with them traveling, but both him and Jeff Driskel are on my GPP list. Driskel hasn’t flashed his athleticism since taking over the offense, but it’s there and if he decides to run on Saturday he could crush value given his non-existent price tag.


Running Back: I fully expect Doug Martin to get some attention this week at his price, and it makes sense given that I have attacked the Bengals run defense relentlessly over the last month. That being said, I probably won’t have much Martin exposure myself, given a few other under the radar options on this slate. As for Joe Mixon, he is incredibly mis-priced at $6,100 on DraftKings, and is my favorite overall running back on the slate as a home favorite. I still want Zeke/Saquon in cash…but $6,100 in this matchup is too cheap and I anticipate Mixon to have massive ownership.


Pass Catchers: If you’re using Derek Carr, the guy who I would be looking to stack him with is Jared Cook. Cook has gone over the 100 yard mark in two straight games, and he should have no issues ripping up this Bengals defense should he see the targets he’s been seeing. I also like Cook as a one-off, and I think he is viable in all formats. On the Bengals side, Tyler Boyd is similar to Mixon in that he’s just too cheap not to consider a top play in all formats. Driskel has fed him 19 targets as a starter, and the matchup for Boyd couldn’t get any better…take advantage of the price decrease.


Cash Game Outlook: Joe Mixon, Jared Cook, Tyler Boyd


GPP Outlook: Derek Carr, Jeff Driskel


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Baltimore Ravens

Vegas Insight: Ravens 27, Bucs 19.5

Quarterback: As I’ve already mentioned, it’s coming down to Allen vs Jackson for cash games this week. The Ravens have a healthy 27 point implied team total, but outside of Jackson there’s not a ton I love in this game. I don’t want Winston against this Ravens defense on the road, and Jackson doesn’t need to be stacked with anyone given his mobility.


Running Back: The one tourney shot I want to take in this game is with Kenneth Dixon. This is the money matchup we have targeted on the ground all season long, and Dixon is back healthy, and it sounds like they want to ramp up his workload as the season winds down. He scored last week, and if he gets touches vs this defense at his price, sign me up in GPPs.


Pass Catchers: I don’t really want any Ravens pass catchers in this spot, if I’m playing Lamar it’s going to be naked or in a tournament stack with Dixon, and the Bucs have quietly been much better against the pass since firing their defensive coordinator. I don’t want to mess with the Ravens pass defense a ton, but they continue to struggle vs tight ends which moves Cam Brate into all formats for me this week at his price.


Cash Game Outlook: Lamar Jackson, Cam Brate


GPP Outlook: Kenneth Dixon


Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts

Vegas Insight: Colts 25, Cowboys 22

Quarterback: As I noted above, I do expect this game to feature some pretty heavy attention from the DFS community, and I ultimately feel like I’m a bit “off” of it compared to everyone else. I truly respect this Dallas defense, and if the options in this game are going to be over-owned I want to take my shots on other games with equal chances of turning into a shootout in my opinion, such as Cincinnati/Oakland. You can look at both Luck and Prescott in tournaments this week.


Running Back: I don’t think I need to say much about Ezekiel Elliott, he’s been an absolute monster over the last month for the Cowboys, and it corresponds with them actually figuring out that they are able to throw him the football. He racked up 40 (!!!) touches last week and I don’t plan on fading that type of volume. He’s a top overall play in all formats this week.


Pass Catchers: I will note, I’m tagging both Hilton and Cooper as cash game options, because I expect them to have some heavy ownership across the industry, but I am not really looking at them for my personal cash game lineup as of right now. Like I said, I respect this Dallas defense and Hilton continues to be banged up, despite his monster game last week. Cooper will have ownership based solely off the huge game he had last week, and the fact that he is completely mis-priced on FanDuel. They are both fine plays, I just don’t want them if they’re going to be over-owned on one of the best tournament slates of the season. Eric Ebron remains a cash game option for me at tight end, given the volume and red zone equity he receives weekly.


Cash Game Outlook: Ezekiel Elliott, Eric Ebron, TY Hilton, Amari Cooper


GPP Outlook: Andrew Luck, Dak Prescott


Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings

Vegas Insight: Vikings 26, Dolphins 18.5

Quarterback: This has become one of my favorite tournament spots on the slate, as the Vikings are implied for 26 points, at home, and have the narrative of coming off the OC being fired after their last game. They’re going to want to put up a big game for their home fans, and while I can’t say I really expect the game plan to be that much better, it should at least be more focused around what Cousins likes to do. This Dolphins defense has been our go-to target for the better part of the second half of this season, and they awoke Tom Brady from his fantasy slumber last week. Cousins game-log isn’t pretty, but he’s at the top of my GPP-list this week.


Running Back: Despite the miracle play at the end of last weeks game, and the fact that he has been much better on the road than at home this season, I don’t have much interest in Kenyan Drake as long as Frank Gore continues to be a factor for the Dolphins. On the home side, Dalvin Cook continues to feast in the passing game racking up nearly 20 catches over his last three games. I got burned big-time by the Sony Michel let-down in this spot last week, but I do expect Cook to get ownership and he’s a great tournament option in Week 15.


Pass Catchers: This is definitely going to be the focus of this game, with both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs sticking out to me. Thielen will always be the cash game option between the two, but Diggs would be a sizable bump should Dolphins corner Xavien Howard miss this game due to injury. Kenny Stills had a big game last week, and at his low $4,000 price tag I think we can go back to the well again this week. He has been pretty solid with Tannehill at Quarterback, and while the floor is low, the big play upside is there and we want to spend down at WR in cash games this week.


Cash Game Outlook: Adam Thielen, Kenny Stills


GPP Outlook: Stefon Diggs, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook


Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants

Vegas Insight: Titans 22, Giants 21

Quarterback: This is a relatively boring O/U, but there are some strong DFS plays within. One play I’ve come onto later in the week is Eli Manning in tournaments. I love targeting home underdogs, and even though Odell Beckham is out that didn’t stop Manning from crushing value last week. The Titans set up as a clear pass-funnel defense, and with everyone focusing on Barkley (rightfully so) I think looking at Manning as a leverage play in GPPs is quite interesting.


Running Back: Saquon Barkley is the clear play here in the backfields, even though the matchup is tough he just might be the best running back in the NFL and his floor/ceiling is just too hard for me to fade in cash games. There are plenty of reasons to move off of him in tournaments, but I’m attempting to lock him and Zeke both in for cash.


Pass Catchers: Given my interest in Manning, who on earth are we going to stack him with given that Odell Beckham is out. The logical answer would be Sterling Shepard, who bailed everyone out with a touchdown last week but has still seen six or more targets in three straight games. While I think Shepard is definitely cash playable at his price, a name for tournaments I want to throw out is Evan Engram. Engram has been dead most of the season, but he has five targets last week without Beckham and people forget what a dominant rookie year he had last season. On the Titans side, you can certainly run it back with Corey Davis, who I don’t think will struggle with Jenkins whatsoever.


Cash Game Outlook: Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard


GPP Outlook: Eli Manning, Corey Davis, Evan Engram


Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons

Vegas Insight: Falcons 27, Cardinals 17

Quarterback: This is an extremely ugly DFS game, even with the Falcons implied for 27 points, and there are only two plays I want to touch up on this game. Matt Ryan has been great at home, but I probably won’t be targeting him even in GPPs this week given some of the other options on this slate.


Running Back: The running backs are what I’m semi-interested in for this game, and it’s mainly because I really don’t expect anyone to target this game at all. David Johnson gets the bread and butter matchup of a running back against the Falcons, but his offensive line is so bad that I cannot even begin to trust in cash games. He did have 10 targets last week, which could help big-time against this Falcons defense. On the Falcons side, as big home favorites in a great matchup on the ground I’m going to be interested…the problem is they give no volume to their running backs. Ito Smith is expected to play this week after out-touching Tevin Coleman each of the last two weeks. You can’t trust either of them, but this is another spot I’d rather take a dart on than someone like Doug Martin.


Pass Catchers: I’m really not targeting here, in addition to the quarterbacks, though even with Patrick Peterson on Julio Jones I think he makes for a fantastic GPP leverage play.


Cash Game Outlook: None


GPP Outlook: Tevin Coleman, Ito Smith, David Johnson


New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Vegas Insight: Patriots 28, Steelers 25.5

Quarterback: This is the game of the week pretty much, with everyone running to get in pieces of this game. While I agree it’s one of the best games on the slate, this is one of the best tournament slates on the season for this exact reason, and I ultimately will end more “off” this game than the field. I think both quarterbacks are fine, but over-owned plays this week. The Steelers have really struggled and it’s more than just a few weeks. Brady finally woke up last week against Miami, but I think I still would prefer Ben if choosing one from this game.


Running Back: The biggest question, maybe on this slate, is whether or not James Conner is going to play. To me, it kind of feels and seems like he’s going to give it a go, and that is pushing Jaylen Samuels out of the cash game range for me. Luckily, the sites have late swap for NFL, so if you plug in Samuels be prepared to pivot if we get news after one o clock.


Pass Catchers: This is going to be the main focus, with Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and JuJu Smith-Schuster all header for high-owned status. I just don’t see how I can get there in cash games paying up for the running backs I want to, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t play them or that they are bad plays, that’s just my personal take on roster construction this week. Of all of them, Edelman is my favorite and people haven’t yet noticed how dominant his red zone usage has been this season. Gronk has a severe history against the Steelers, but I really don’t want to chase last week when we have Cook and Ebron also on the slate.


Cash Game Outlook: Julian Edelamn, Rob Gronkowski, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jaylen Samuels (If Conner out)


GPP Outlook: Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Josh Gordon, Antonio Brown


UPDATE: Conner is now looking unlikely, so we can bump Samuels back up in all formats.





Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)




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