The Ultimate NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 16 » DFS Karma
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The Ultimate NFL DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 16

Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets

Vegas Insight: Packers 25, Jets 22

Quarterback: This is quietly becoming one of my favorite games on the weekend with it looking like Aaron Rodgers is set to play. This Jets secondary has been abused in recent weeks by Josh Allen and Deshaun Watson, and I see no reason why Rodgers will struggle in this game. He comes in currently as my favorite overall quarterback this week, and while the move is most likely going to be spend down at QB- jam in three backs in cash games, a Packers onslaught with some Jets coming back does tickle my fancy. Darnold has improved down the stretch to no surprise, and this is a Packers secondary that we also have been attacking in recent weeks. With Quincy Enunwa out once again this week, Darnold has free reign to lock onto his favorite target in Robby Anderson once again and they will need to put up points against the Packers, I love that they are home underdogs in this spot.

 

Running Back: At running back, we have some solid value here with the Jets losing Isaiah Crowell to IR a few weeks ago, and now the Packers with Aaron Jones on IR. Jamaal Williams will stand to benefit from the Jones injury, but he only cracks my GPP pool as I do expect this to just end up making the Packers more pass-heavy. McGuire on the other hand is cheap enough that he enters the cash game conversation, and he has severely out-touched Trenton Cannon since Crowell went down.

 

Pass Catchers: Davante Adams has a few #narratives as the season closes, he is approaching a few Packer records and he should make easy work of this Jets secondary. He is 100% in my cash game pool regardless of if I play Rodgers or not, but I’m not sure if we will have the money to get up to him should be be jamming in three elite running backs this week. Robby Anderson is set to be maybe the highest-owned WR on the slate, and as scary as that sounds I find it hard to get away from him for cash games. Like I noted above, Darnold is locking onto him with 7 and 11 targets over the last two weeks, and this is not a low ceiling player which is why I don’t feel as comfortable fading.

 

Cash Game Outlook: Robby Anderson, Elijah McGuire, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers

 

GPP Outlook: Sam Darnold, Jamaal Williams

 

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Vegas Insight: Patriots 29, Bills 15.5

Quarterback: This is a relatively boring game for DFS given that the Patriots are such big favorites, but that won’t stop me from looking at our man Josh Allen in GPPs. We have talked all season about how weak the Patriots linebackers are, and Mitchell Trubisky was able to run for 81 yards a touchdown against this Patriots defense, They definitely could scheme to make Allen a thrower, but I’m fine taking the risk in GPPs especially when we have seen the upside a number of times already this season.

 

Running Back: LeSean McCoy is expected to be back for the Bills this week, while we don’t have much interest in him I am looking at Sony Michel in tournaments. I’ve noted a few times how Michel is filling in the “Blount” role we once saw with LeGarrette Blount in New England, as a heavy home favorite it’s looking like a possible Michel game in Week 16, and then we have to factor in the unluckiness. Michel has been trolled by fullbacks and penalties more than two r three times, and this could be the game the luck lines up and Michel explodes on the back of 23+ carries.

 

Pass Catchers: Robert Foster continues to smash when given the opportunity for the Bills, and he sets up in another good spot with the Bills expecting be down big and avoiding Stephon Gillmore. Julian Edelman is the lone cash game target for me in this game, who has one of the steadiest red zone roles in the NFL and could see an even larger uptick in volume with Josh Gordon gone.

 

Cash Game Outlook: Julian Edelman

 

GPP Outlook: Sony Michel, Josh Allen, Robert Foster

 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Vegas Insight: Browns 27, Bengals 17

Quarterback: Ohhhhh baby, as a Browns fan, this spread is quite a sight to see. I am interested in this game, but probably less than you would think and it’s going to fall into more tournament than cash games for me. Baker Mayfield has been exceptional at home, and is playing with the narrative of needing five touchdowns in his final two games to match the rookie record. His price got a well warranted increase, and that mixed with the likelihood of another blowout (can’t believe I said that) is why I’m labeling him as GPP-only.

 

Running Back: Nick Chubb is the guy who stands out from a cash game perspective this week, this matchup with Cincinnati has been one that we have attacked heavily over the latter parts of the season, and Chubb has legitimately been one of the best running backs in the NFL this season. The touches are there, and his passing game usage isn’t as bad as you automatically think, plus we have to bake in him being a massive home favorite. Joe Mixon fits the mold as a GPP play, obviously the game-script is not likely to be in his favor but given his ever-growing passing game usage trailing might actually benefit him, especially in full point PPR.

 

Pass Catchers: Given how much Mayfield is able to spread the ball around in this Browns offense, I don’t think there is any must pair with him in tournaments. Landry has quietly been heavily involved in the red zone, so he makes sense but I also like the idea of pairing Mayfield with Chubb thus getting max exposure to all Browns points.

 

Cash Game Outlook: Nick Chubb

 

GPP Outlook: Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, Joe Mixon

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

Vegas Insight: Cowboys 28, Bucs 20

Quarterback: I will note off the bat, this game has a solid 48.5 O/U but I’m pretty much going to be avoiding the Buccaneers completely. This Cowboy defense is legitimate, in my opinion, and at home against a turnover prone Quarterback, I really want no parts of the Bucs. Dak is coming off one of the worst performances of any starting QB (fantasy) this season, and he matches up well with this defense’s schematic approach. I like him in tourneys, but with an abundance of cheap options at QB there’s no reason to go there in cash games.

 

Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott is coming off a “floor” game against the Colts where he still put up nearly 20 fantasy points, and now gets a top-five matchup on the ground with the Bucs run-defense. He’s still expensive, but he is arguably the top overall play at running back this weekend.

 

Pass Catchers: The Cowboys offense is so concentrated, that a Prescott-Elliott-Amari Cooper stack makes a ton of sense in tournaments, and honestly Cooper could definitely be tagged as cash game playable as well, especially on FanDuel. Blake Jarwin has seen a role change in recent weeks, and while I didn’t list him he is in play at a barren tight end position.

 

Cash Game Outlook: Ezekiel Elliott

 

GPP Outlook: Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans

 

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

Vegas Insight: Falcons 23, Panthers 20

Quarterback: This game became quite interesting once we got the news that Cam Newton will rightfully be shutdown for the remainder of the season. Taylor Heinicke will take over and make his first career NFL start on Sunday, and while I’m not very interested in him  I do think he is in play for tournaments given his mega-cheap price. He is very athletic and has some mobility, and I think he could surprise people on Sunday but his floor is way too low to really bank on. With the news that Julio Jones status is up in the air for this Sunday, that knocks Matt Ryan down for me, but I probably wouldn’t be targeting him in this spot on the road regardless.

 

Running Back: There will be some heavy focus on the running backs in this game, but maybe not as much as there was going to originally be. I definitely think Christian McCaffrey’s ownership took a hit once Cam was ruled out, but I, for one, am not letting that defer me from using him in all formats. This matchup with the Falcons has been my go-to all season long, and now we have CMC running with the narrative of the Pro Bowl snub looming. On the opposite side, we have Tevin Coleman expected to see moderate ownership with Ito Smith now on IR. I totally get wanting to play Coleman coming off the big week, but I don’t want to chase that on the road and I’m leaving him for GPPs only.

 

Pass Catchers: If Julio Jones ends up playing, I do like him given his strong history against the Panthers secondary. Like I’ve noted below, Heinicke showed a strong rapport with explosive Curtis Samuel in the preseason, so that would be my top stacking partner with him should you choose that route in GPPs.

 

Cash Game Outlook: Christian McCaffrey, Julio Jones (if active)

 

GPP Outlook: Tevin Coleman, Taylor Heinicke/Curtis Samuel GPP stack

 

Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles

Vegas Insight: Eagles 23, Texans 22

Quarterback: This is one of the better overall games on the slate, and I could definitely see it turning into a shootout should the Eagles be able to put up points. Deshaun Watson matches up with one of our top secondaries to attack in the NFL right now, and he has routinely put up big fantasy games when he is forced to keep his foot on the gas and score points, making him a top GPP option. Nick Foles will start again for the Eagles, and while I actually don’t think he will be super popular anymore, he’s definitely in the cash game tier for me at his price, as it allows me to jam in two high-priced running backs.

 

Running Back: I don’t have a ton of interest in the backfields here for daily fantasy, I expect there to be a good amount of points scored in this game and I want to focus on the passing attacks.

 

Pass Catchers: Given my interest in Foles and Watson, both of Alshon Jeffery and DeAndre Hopkins stick out as cash game options for me in Week 16. Jeffery has been fantastic with Foles at quarterback dating back to last season, and he reeled in all eight targets for 160 yards last weekend against the Rams. Hopkins had a monster game against the Jets last Saturday, if he is active this week there is nobody in this Eagles secondary that can match up with him and he is going to continue to see a volume-heavy role in this offense.

 

Cash Game Outlook: Nick Foles, Alshon Jeffery, DeAndre Hopkins

 

GPP Outlook: Deshaun Watson

 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints

Vegas Insight: Saints 29, Steelers 23

Quarterback: Much like last week’s Steelers/Patriots game, this 4 o clock special features a 53 O/U and I expect it to be a pretty heavy focus in tournaments, while I am not quite as interested. If it looks like this will be a low-owned game, then I’m fine jumping on it but if it’s going to be over-owned I want to avoid it. Both quarterbacks are fine for me in tournaments, but I’m always concerned with the volume for Brees when Kamara/Ingram are both healthy.

 

Running Back: With no James Conner, we get another week of Jaylen Samuels who is fine for tournaments, outside of Yahoo where he remains under-priced and is a near lock in all formats. The one cash game option from this game I do like is Alvin Kamara, who is inly $100 more than Nick Chubb on DraftKings. I love Nick Chubb, and I think he is a great play this week, but it’s silly to think about Kamara’s upside and realize he is only $7,400 in a game set-up like this.

 

Pass Catchers: Michael Thomas is an elite tournament play again this week, I think you could definitely slot him in for cash games, but I would prefer both of Adams and Hopkins personally over him. JuJu Smith-Schuster left practice early on Thursday with a groin injury, and it doesn’t seem like anyone knows if he is a threat to miss this game or not. I like Antonio Brown regardless, but of JuJu was out that would vault Brown to a play in all formats for me as well as open some value up.

 

Cash Game Outlook: Alvin Kamara

 

GPP Outlook: Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Thomas, Jaylen Samuels, Antonio Brown, JuJu (?)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)

 

 

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