Jared Goff/Todd Gurley/Cooper Kupp
The Los Angeles Rams make their way into my article once again because of their ridiculous prices and elite matchup this week. They feature one of the best offenses in the NFL, ranking second in the league in total yards (442.6) and third in points (33.0) per game. They get a matchup against the New Orleans Saints, who rank in the bottom-10 of the NFL in total yards allowed 374.1 and points allowed (26.1) per game this season. The Rams are small underdogs in a game set at 60 points, giving them an implied total of 29 points this week.
Jared Goff has struggled on the road this season, but he has found plenty of success overall this season. Through eight games, he’s averaging 303.1 passing yards and 2.1 passing touchdowns on 31.6 pass attempts per game. Cooper Kupp is expected to return to the starting lineup this week, and the Saints have struggled against the slot this season. In five healthy games, Kupp is averaging 6.0 receptions for 87.6 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 6.7 targets per game. It’s also encouraging that Rams head coach Sean McVay stated in the middle of the week that he fully expects Kupp to suit up for this game. Todd Gurley is the other obvious option for this stack. His price tag on DraftKings is a joke at this point, as he has scored 25+ DK points in every game this season, including 30+ DK points in each of his last four games. He’s averaging a healthy 143.9 yards and 1.9 touchdowns on 25.0 touches (3.9 receptions) per game. The Rams are likely a chalky stack at this point, but it’s impossible to ignore them for their low price tags and recent production.
Kirk Cousins/Adam Thielen/Stefon Diggs
The Minnesota Vikings feature one of the best receiving duos in the NFL, and it shows in their numbers. They rank sixth in the NFL in passing yards (299.0) per game, while also ranking seventh in passing touchdowns (16). They get a matchup against the Detroit Lions, who are only allowing 223.0 passing yards per game. With that being said, they have allowed 15 passing touchdown, while recording only two interceptions this season. They have also allowed the second best quarterback rating (114.2) in the league this season. The Vikings are -4.5 point favorites in a game set at 49.5 points, and they feature a 27 point implied total.
Kirk Cousins has found plenty of success with his new team this season. Through eight games, he’s averaging 315.1 passing yards and 2.0 passing touchdowns per game. He has also added 78 yards and one touchdown on the ground this season. His favorite two targets have been Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, who have combined for a 54.2% target share this season. They have also combined for a 52.5% target share in the red zone in 2018. Thielen is the leader of their group, as he leads their team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Overall, he has totaled 74 receptions for 925 yards and six touchdowns on 96 targets. Stefon Diggs is coming off of a big week, and he has flashed tremendous upside this season. Through eight games, he’s averaging 7.3 receptions for 73.4 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 10.6 targets per game. Diggs is currently questionable with a rib injury, but he’s expected to play this week. This is an extremely high upside stack that could go overlooked on this slate.
Ryan Fitzpatrick/Mike Evans/O.J. Howard
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers passing attack has found plenty of success this season. They’re leading the league in passing yards (376.0) per game, while ranking third in the NFL in passing touchdowns (19). They get a matchup against the Carolina Panthers, who are only allowing 255.0 passing yards per game this season. They have found some success against quarterbacks, though, allowing only 13 passing touchdowns, while recording nine interceptions in 2018. The Bucs feature an offense that can score against anyone, though. They are sizeable underdogs in a game set at 54.5 points, and they own an implied total of 24.3 points this week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has been named the starter for Tampa Bay tonight. He has played in three full games this season, averaging 410.0 passing yards and 3.7 passing touchdowns per game. He also saw limited snaps last week, but totaled 194 passing yards and two passing touchdowns in “catch up” mode. His favorite target has been Mike Evans. In three full games with Fitzpatrick, Evans is averaging 7.7 receptions for 122.3 yards and 1.0 touchdown on 10.0 targets per game. His numbers dropped significantly with Jameis Winston behind center, but he totaled a 6/179/1 line in his last game, scoring a deep touchdown after Fitzpatrick entered the game. O.J. Howard has had an up and down season thus far, but he has scored double digit fantasy points in five of his seven games. Overall, he’s averaging 3.4 receptions for 59.9 yards and 0.4 touchdowns on 4.9 targets per game. Carolina has also featured one of the worst defenses in the NFL against tight ends this season.
High Upside GPP Stack
Brock Osweiler/Kenyan Drake/DeVante Parker
The Miami Dolphins have featured one of the worst offenses in the NFL this season, as they are averaging only 334.3 total yards and 21.8 points per game this season. They get a great matchup against the New York Jets, though, who rank 24th in the NFL in total yards (374.6) and 19th in points (25.0) allowed per game. The Dolphins are also -3 point favorites in a game set at 45 points. They feature an implied total of 24 points on this slate.
Brock Osweiler will make his fourth consecutive start for the Miami Dolphins this week. Through three starts, he’s averaging 286.7 passing yards and 1.7 passing touchdown on 37.3 attempts per game. DeVante Parker was forced into the starting line because of injuries last week, and he responded with one of the best lines of his career. He totaled six receptions for 134 yards on nine targets. Kenny Stills is questionable this weekend, but Parker still can be considered if Stills suits up. Kenyan Drake, who only averaged 8.1 DK points per game through his first four games this season has found plenty of success over his last four games. Over the last four week, Drake is averaging 93.8 yards and 1.0 touchdown on 13.5 touches per game. The Dolphins make a cheap stack in a sneaky good matchup, and they will likely go overlooked on this slate.