Vinicius Moreira (+225)/Alonzo Menifield (-275)
This is a fight between two completely different fighters, although they are both finishers. Vinicius is an elite submission grappler, who has made it out of the first round in only three of his 10 professional fights. Alonzo Menifield is a powerful striker, who has yet to go 1.5 rounds in any of his seven professional fights. I expect Menifield to be entirely too much on the feet for Moreira and earn a first round knockout. With that being said, there is a very real possibility that Moreira could get this fight to the ground and quickly submit Menifield. Regardless, this fight should end early, and I personally have a strong lean towards Menifield.
Bet 1.7 units on Moreira/Menifield UNDER 1.5 rounds to win 1 unit
Kyle Stewart (-165)
This may be more of a gut pick than anything. There were a few spots in his career where many people believed Kyle Stewart was going to get a call from the UFC, including after a win on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series (albeit by injury) and an impressive decision win against Jaleel Willis at LFA 33. Stewart has multiple impressive wins, and his only loss came against an undefeated James Nakashima. Stewart is a tough fighter, who is well-rounded with multiple ways to win fights. He gets a matchup against Chance Rencountre, who I’m not overly high on as a prospect. He lost his only UFC fight against Belal Muhammad, and he hasn’t faced high level competition prior to that. Stewart has been the more impressive fighter against better competition, and I feel he’s a significantly better prospect between these two. Stewart may not find a finish in this fight, but he should pick up another victory this weekend.
Bet 1.65 units on Stewart to win 1 unit
Karl Roberson (+100)
The current betting favorite is Glover Teixeira over Karl Roberson, but it has the potential to flip prior to Saturday. Roberson is the better physical specimen, and despite a loss to Cezar Ferreira two fights ago, he is still young and improving. Teixeira, on the other hand, is fading. He is almost 40-years-old, and while he should continue to collect paychecks until fans no longer wish to see him inside the octagon, it is unlikely that he is going to find much success outside of the lucky knockout punch (see, for example, Misha Cirkunov). In his last three fights, he lost to both Corey Anderson and Alexander Gustafsson. Roberson opened as a +145 underdog against Jack Marshman, and he picked up a victory in that fight. Teixeira opened as a huge -300 favorite against Corey Anderson, and he could not secure a victory. The true beginning of Teixeira’s decline begins this Saturday, if he does not pick up a much-needed victory, and based on Roberson’s ability to finish this fight standing, on the ground, or via the judge’s scorecard, it is not all that likely that Teixeira finds that victory.
Bet 1 unit on Roberson to win 1 unit
Parlay 1 unit on Paige VanZant, Ariane Lipski, Gregor Gillespie, Greg Hardy, and Cory Sandhagen to win 3.13 units