Claudio Silva (-145)
Claudio Silva has a very known path to victory in this fight. He needs to get Danny Roberts to the ground, where he can find a submission. Silva is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, who is coming off of an impressive submission victory over Nordine Taleb. He looked elite in that fight, and that was likely a more difficult matchup than Roberts, who owns a 57% takedown defense in the UFC. I expect Silva to be able to get this fight to the ground multiple times [if needed], but he may not need that. Once this fight hits the mat, Silva gains a massive edge over Roberts, who is known for his boxing. Getting plus odds for Silva to find a submission in three rounds is robbery. Get this bet in before the odds shift.
Bet 1 unit on Silva by KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission to win 1.1 units
Volkan Oezdemir (+200)/Dominick Reyes (-240)
I [Justin] personally lean towards Dominick Reyes winning this fight, but I do believe these odds are wide. Instead of attacking either side, I’ll attack the round. Reyes has won eight of his 10 fights in the first round, while failing to finish on Ovince Saint Preux in the UFC. Volkan Oezdemir also failed to finish OSP in his UFC debut, but he has finished 12 of his 18 career fights in the first round. These are two fighters that have heavy hands, and neither is known for taking a step back. This should turn into some type of fire-fight early on, which results in one of these two getting knocked out. Similarly to the play above, plus odds on this bet is a bit surprising, so take advantage of it while you can.
Bet 1 unit on Volkan Oezdemir/Dominick Reyes UNDER 1.5 rounds to win 1.1 units
Volkan Oezdemir (+200)
Volkan Oezdemir and Dominick Reyes square off this Saturday in what should end up being one of the better kickboxing matchups in recent UFC memory. Oezdemir has a clear path to victory, as does Reyes, and the odds should be much closer to even. So, why is Reyes such a large favorite? Most likely, this is a classic case of recency bias. Reyes just recently won a decision against Ovince Saint Preux, which was his tenth consecutive professional victory. Oezdemir, on the other hand, just lost two fights in a row. Those two fights were to Daniel Cormier, who happens to be one of the best fighters in UFC history, and Anthony Smith, who luckily submitted Oezdemir in the third round of a lopsided fight (going in favor of Oezdemir). All in all, Oezdemir’s odds are just far too wide. There is a lot of value here, and the odds should start to close closer to the start of the fight on Saturday.
Bet 1 unit on Volkan Oezdemir to win 2 units
Parlay 1 unit on Darren Till, Nathaniel Wood, Dan Ige, Molly McCann, and Nad Narimani to win 7.53 units
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