3 Best Bets for UFC on ESPN+ 9 - DFS Karma
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3 Best Bets for UFC on ESPN+ 9

Juan Adams (-124)

If you read any of my content, or looked at my Twitter, you know how much I like Juan Adams in this matchup. Adams is a heavy-handed striker, who also features a wrestling background. He owns five knockouts in his career with four of them coming in the first round. His opponent, Arjan Bhullar, is almost exclusively a wrestler, who owns a 2-1 record in the UFC. Bhullar has faced off against tougher competition, but he has yet to fight any high-level heavyweights in the UFC. Bhullar hasn’t fought anyone with the size of Adams, who comfortably walks at 285 lbs. Adams also owns nearly a six inch reach advantage over Bhullar. While Adams is far from an elite fighter, and he comes with cardio concerns, his size advantage over Bhullar should be enough to overwhelm him. I expect Adams to be able to negate Bhullar’s wrestling in this fight, creating a mismatch on the feet. Not only do I believe Adams picks up the win, but I expect him to find another finish in this fight.

Bet 1.24 units on Adams to win 1 unit


Shane Burgos (-155)

Shane Burgos has had a near perfect career up until this point, having to deal with one roadblock against Calvin Kattar. Burgos is a black belt in Tiger Schulmann’s Karate, and he’s an extremely versatile fighter. The same can be said for Cub Swanson, who is known for his striking, but also owns a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Swanson only owns one notable win since 2014, though, beating Doo Ho Choi in a three-round decision. Keep in mind, Swanson has only truly fought high-level competition in his last five losses. Burgos has won fights that he has been expected to win, though, while his loss against Kattar is far from a “bad loss.” Burgos only owns one (T)KO in the UFC, and his power hasn’t translated as well as many would think. Swanson, on the other hand, has only ever been knocked out once in his career, which was to Jose Aldo in 2009. Burgos is an extremely smart fighter, and he owns a 5.5 inch reach advantage in this fight. I expect him to utilize that reach to keep Swanson on the outside, which will result in a three-round decision victory. I don’t expect Burgos to be able to knockout Swanson, and his only other route to finish would be a submission. While that certainly could happen, Burgos could be in danger on the ground with Swanson, and the more likely route is a three-round decision victory.

Bet 1 unit on Burgos via decision to win 2 units


Walt Harris (-170)

Walt Harris has been struggling in the UFC for quite some time, but his recent skid has more to do with outside circumstances than in-the-octagon performances. He recently tested positive for LGD-4033, which overturned his split decision victory over Andrei Arlovski, a fighter that, despite his age, is still frustrating high-level talent. He knocked out Daniel Spitz prior to that, and one fight before Spitz, he got disqualified for an illegal head kick. It is about time for Harris to take a deep breath and reset, and that is exactly what Sergey Spivak provides. Spivak is going to want this fight to either get to the ground or stay tight. He has been impressive on the ground in his professional career, and he does have dangerous clinch striking. However, he struggles heavily from range, and Harris is athletic enough to keep this fight at distance. Harris has rarely in his career been taken down, and as long as this fight stays on the feet, it is Harris’s to lose. He might be hesitant at first, but as the strikes start landing, and after he defends one or two takedown attempts, Harris will start to open up and end this fight before the judges get a chance to offer their opinions.

Bet 1 unit on Walt Harris via (T)KO to win 1.1 units


Parlay Bet

Parlay 1 unit on Macy Chiasson, Nordine Taleb, Andrew Sanchez, and Elias Theodorou to win 3.32 units

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