Jared Gordon (-150)
This line is one of the weirdest of the card for me. Joaquim Silva is a well-rounded fighter, but I struggle to see where he has the advantage in this fight. Jared Gordon is one of the most active strikers in the UFC, and his volume on the feet will give him an advantage. Gordon also comes with some power, although that isn’t the most likely route. Gordon also has the wrestling to control the grappling exchanges, and I don’t feel as though Silva is as dangerous of a grappler off of his back. Vinc Pichel found holes in Silva’s game in their fight, and Gordon can continue on that. Gordon is coming off of a tough loss, and this is the fight that can get him back on track.
Bet 1.5 units on Gordon to win 1 unit
Dan Hooker (-110)
This is one of my favorite fights on the card. Dan Hooker and Edson Barboza are two high level strikers, and I expect this fight to stay standing for the majority of its duration. Hooker is purely a finisher, finishing each of his wins since 2011. Barboza comes with a tremendous chin, but it will certainly be tested by Hooker. The volume and power of Hooker is difficult to avoid for three rounds, and Barboza could potentially be nearing the end of his career. If Hooker wins this fight, he’s likely going to finish it, and we can grab slightly better odds by betting inside the distance. This fight will be somewhat of a passing of the torch to Hooker, who is coming off of a dominant knockout of the highly impressive Gilbert Burns, as well.
Bet 1 units on Hooker by KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission to win 1.7 units
Kevin Lee (-300)
There are only a few fighters on this upcoming UFC Milwaukee card that have better odds to win than Kevin Lee (Charles Oliveira at -310, Zak Cummings at -305, and Juan Adams at -430). That said, Lee’s odds to win should be wider. He has -152 odds to finish inside of distance, compared to Al Iaquinta’s +360. If this fight goes the distance, there is almost no chance that Iaquinta picks up a decision victory. Lee is going to ride this fight out on the ground, finish Iaquinta inside of distance, or test his stand-up in order to showcase his ability for his next fight. His only recent loss is to Tony Ferguson, who is on another level. If Ferguson fought Iaquinta, Iaquinta would be asleep within the first round. There are minimal paths to victory for Iaquinta, so I am comfortable recommending a three unit bet on Lee to win one unit. It is one of the safer bets available this weekend, but definitely worth it. For better odds, bet Lee inside of distance, if MyBookie has that prop available on Saturday.
Bet 3 units on Lee to win 1 unit
Parlay 1 unit on Kevin Lee, Dan Hooker, Rob Font, Charles Oliveira, and Juan Adams to win 5.4 units