UFC Vegas 47
Sean Strickland vs J Hermansson
Dating back to 2018, Strickland comes into this one on a 4 fight win streak with all the momentum in the world. His last bout was a Main Event vs the always threatening Uriah Hall where he passed that test with flying colors. His striking/pressure was too much to deal with and his volume shined through. He’s one of the best strikers in this division IMO, and has the ability to mix in TDs to go with a solid wrestling game. He now draws another stiff test vs Hermansson, Hermansson has seen mixed results over his last few and is 2-2 in his last 4. His last win coming over Edmen Shahbazyan last summer. Hermansson is a really gifted fighter as well, he has the ability to mix things up at an extremely nice pace, and if given the opportunity, will work off of a strong wrestling game, where he has the ability to wear opponents down in top control. He’s not as technical in striking as Strickland, but still puts together combinations well etc. However, if this somehow turns into a striking match, then the result will be similar to the one Uriah Hall just faced vs Strickland, and that’s that over the course of 5 RDs, you’re not going to out-strike him, so you need big moments to try and steal it. I think Strickland continues his winning ways here and picks up another nice win, likely via unanimous decision.
PICK: Sean Strickland $21 FD ($8800 DK)
Jack Hermansson $15 FD ($7400 DK)
Co Main Event
P. Soriano vs Nick Maximo
This one should be interesting. Maximov comes off of a nice debut win vs Cody Brundage that took place last September. He likes to ultimately get things grounded to work an aggressive wrestling/grappling game that features heavy top control, however, on the feet he has decent striking, and his cardio seems to be pretty good. He now gets a much tougher task vs Soriano here. Soriano is coming off of his first loss via decision his last time out, and I’ll be honest, had little hope that we’d see a final horn in that one, but each guy weathered the big punches from the other. Soriano is a very good well rounded fighter, and will definitely have the power advantage on the feet in the striking. He’s also a pretty good wrestler himself and features great TDEF, so he should be able to keep this one standing. As a result, I think he cruises to a decision win at the least, but with his power, could end the fight at any minute. If placing bets, a nice play would be Soriano ITD.
PICK: Puna Soriano $18 FD ($8600 DK)
Nick Maximov $13 FD ($7600 DK)
S. Rakhmonov vs Carlston Harris
I love this matchup, you’ve got two highly touted prospects looking to continue their impressive UFC starts. Harris has started his campaign with the UFC 2-0, both via finish. Rakhmonov has done the same, also sitting at 2-0. Harris generally enjoyed being the longer fighter, therefore having a reach advantage to fall back on, this time around that’s not the case and he faces a guy with a near identical measurable. Harris is very solid anywhere the fight goes, he has nice power to match his technical striking, and is really well versed on the ground, and can find submissions. Rakhmonov has similar tools, and while not as powerful in the striking, I believe he’s more technical, and also more defensively inept than Harris. Harris got caught a couple times vs Aguilera, but was able to turn things in his favor once things hit the mat, I don’t believe he has that ease of success this time out. Rakhmonov will present much better durability when the striking exchanges occur, so will give Harris something to navigate through. Ultimately I feel that Rakhmonov is slightly better no matter where this goes, and eventually things will hit the mat, and I think Rakhmonov finds himself another finish via submission. I’ll say it comes RD 2. Harris is one of the better underdogs this card, so taking a chance there isn’t a bad idea.
PICK: S. Rakhmonov $19 FD ($9000 DK)
Carlston Harris $11 FD ($7200 DK)
Brendan Allen vs Sam Alvey
It’s been a rough last 7 fights for Alvey, as he’s 0-6-1 during that span, hard to believe he’s still in the UFC honestly, but he’s an experienced vet, and is a tough out for anyone. He pressures forward, and can throw big shots in the pocket. His cardio starts to fade a bit late, but always seems to make it a dog fight at times. Brendan is taking this fight on short notice, but wants to rebound here after suffering a surprising KO loss to Chris Curtis in December. Allen has great striking, and can put together combinations in the pocket. His power has never been a big worry, but he can have pretty nice volume. He’s also a really good wrestler and strives in top position. He should be better anywhere this fight goes, Alvey’s toughness makes this interesting, but beyond that, I don’t see a real path to victory for Alvey outside of a fluke finish. Alvey’s durability leads me to believe this ends up a decision, but the victor being Allen.
PICK: Brendan Allen $22 FD ($9300 DK)
Sam Alvey $8 FD ($6900 DK)
Tresean Gore vs Bryan Battle
Battle made his debut last summer and got a submission win over Gilbert Urbina. The TUF Final should’ve originally been vs Gore, but an injury forced him to miss. Battle his a guy with a high motor, and he’ll press forward looking to get his opponent’s backed up to the cage while he strings together his offense. He’s not a particularly great athlete, but his toughness makes up for what’s lacking there. He also has a really solid ground game to fall back on, he’ll occasionally shoot for TDs and look to gain top control and hunt for submissions. Gore, is making his debut here. He’s a great athlete, and has big power in his punches. He moves really well on his feet, and is also pretty decent on the mat. He’s very green, so hard to really see how this one plays out. Odds have it basically as a pick em. Battle will have higher volume, but Gore will do more damage, and could find the finish. In close fights, judges tend to side with the guy who has more impactful striking/damage, and that looks to be what Gore will have success with. The pick is for Gore to get it done in his debut.
PICK: Tresean Gore $17 FD ($8300 DK)
Bryan Battle $14 FD ($7900 DK)
Julian Erosa vs Steven Peterson
This one is tough to call, and I don’t think odds should be as wide as they are here. Erosa has won 3 of his last 4, most recently getting a submission win over Charles Jourdain last September. Erosa is extremely well rounded, and generally looks to utilize his kickboxing with technical striking to set up his offense. He’s had issues in the past where he launches himself in the pocket so to speak without much regard for defense, and can get clipped at times, as we saw vs Seung-Woo last summer. But at his best, he can stay patient when he’s utilizing his striking. He’s also a really good wrestler, and can find submissions in unorthodox ways at any moment. Peterson on the other side, is riding a 2 fight win streak, and found himself on the right side of a decision in what was an upset over Chase Hooper most recently. Peterson approaches things one of two ways, one being to try and set the pace early and make things ugly, or he’ll try to shoot for TDS to work his wrestling, and he’s pretty well versed on the mat that he can generally steer clear of danger. Erosa should be better everywhere this goes, but for DFS purposes, I don’t know that he justifies his price tag without a huge early win, which I don’t see happening. I think Erosa gets a clear decision win here. He’s a better DK play than FD IMO.
PICK: Julian Erosa $22 FD ($9200 DK)
Steven Peterson $9 FD ($7000 DK)
Miles Johns vs John Castaneda
Johns has started things off nicely in his UFC tenure, sitting at 3-1 overall. He’s a very well rounded fighter, and if his last fight is indicative of anything, it looks like he’s put all his good together. He’s a patient striker, fights in a low stance, and throws heavy low leg kicks off his back foot. He immobilized Dos Santos before throwing a beautiful low/high combination to get the KO in RD 3 of that fight. His wrestling is also a really nice element of his game, especially if needing to slow the pace. Castaneda, surprised many with his last performance, scoring a KO win over the vet Eddie Wineland, he showed he has power in his hands. He’ll fight at a slight higher pace than Johns, and has really nice technical boxing skills, counters really well. He’s a tough out and his durability should see him through this fight, which means we could potentially see nice overall stats from either winner. I’ll give the edge to Johns here, he could get another KO, depends on how smart Castaneda will be early in checking the leg kicks because that’s an obvious part of his gm. The pick is Johns via decision.
PICK: Miles Johns $17 FD ($8900 DK)
John Castaneda $13 ($7300 DK)
Hakeem Dawodu vs Mike Trizano
As talented as Dawodu is, he got a tough task his last time out vs Movsar Evloev, who’s on the fast track to a title shot in this division. Dawodu has pretty good TDEF, but it was too much to overcome in that one, and he was dominated when things hit the mat in that one. Thankfully, he doesn’t have to face such task this time around. Trizano won’t try too many TDs, and if he does, I don’t know that he’ll land them with such consistency. Trizano moves well on his feet and has nice technical boxing. He got an upset win his last time out over Ludovit Klein who was highly touted for his KO’ing ability. Trizano was able to avoid the big damage. However, he tends to move forward throwing offense without sometimes being mindful of defense at times, and against a guy as athletic as Dawodu, he could get himself caught. Dawodu will have the speed advantage for sure, and also hits with a bit more power. I see this fight standing for the better part of 15mins in which Dawodu should be able to come away with a win to get back in the win column.
PICK: H. Dawodu $17 FD ($8500 DK)
Mike Trizano $14 FD ($7700 DK)
Marc Andre B vs Chidi Njokuani
First off, I love the pricing of this fight with the potential it has as far as production goes. Definitely one to target on both sites. MAB is coming off two back to back beautiful performances and is looking to make it 3 in a row. He tends to go harder as the fight goes long when his opponents start to fade, he moves well on the feet and pressures forward really well dishing out volume. This is Njoku’s UFC debut, he’ll sport a 6” reach advantage, and features really technical striking with power, he likes to try and fight at range given his usual physical advantages. This should be fireworks no matter which way it goes. MAB obviously has the experience advantage having fought better competition, and he’s shown to be durable having not been finished yet. 9 of his 13 wins have come via ITD. On the other side, Njoku has finished 12 of his 20 wins. But one thing to note is 6 of his losses have come by way of being finished hisself, so that’s something to watch. If this fight sees the final horn, you’re talking about another performance where MAB puts up 120+ SS in all likelihood, which is nice for DFS. He very well could find a finish again though. At any rate, I like him more here, and think he gets it done. Njoku is definitely one of the nicer underdogs to take a stab on though.
PICK: MAB $16 FD ($8200 DK)
Chidi Njokuani $15 FD ($8000 DK)
Alexis Davis vs Julija Stoliarenko
Davis hasn’t been on the nice end of 4 of her last 5 fights, having lost via decision in those. But what we do know is she’s a scrappy veteran, and features an all around game that gives many a tough out. She’s a striker that tends to like to keep things standing as she throws in the pocket. She has a nice ground gm to fall back on, but depending on the matchup may not opt to go that route. In this particular case, she may be forced to at times. Stoliarenko is on a 2 fight skid and needs this one. Stoliarenko’s favorite calling card is the arm bar, and if things hit the mat, she’s constantly on the hunt for it. On the feet, she’s a decent striker, but generally won’t dish out more volume against pure strikers. Davis is savvy enough on the mat that she shouldn’t put herself in compromising positions, so I see a nice bounce back win here where she should control things no matter where it goes. The peripheral stats could be nice as well if she can get a couple TDs here and there.
PICK: Alexis Davis $18 FD ($8700 DK)
Julija Stoliarenko $12 FD ($7500 DK)
Jailton Almeida vs Danilo Marques
Almeida is making his UFC debut here and looks to keep his impressive 9 fight win streak in tact. All 14 of his fights have finished ITD, 9 via submission and 5 via TKO/KO. He’s as well rounded as they come and offers great power in his striking. Marques is 2-1 in the UFC, and will have the obvious experience edge here. Marques striking is decent, he really only uses it as a means to get in close to try and get a single leg TD to work his submission gm to hunt for an early sub, that’ll be tough task with someone as highly touted anywhere this fight goes. The glaring issue we’ve seen with Marques is his gas tank, if this fight sees 7mins+, he’s likely on a downward spiral, and in that scenario, Almeida is probably taking over. At some point in the latter part of the 2nd or maybe early 3rd, Almeida should have done enough to notch another ITD win. You never know with guys making their debuts, so a stab at Marques isn’t a terrible idea, but the longer the fight goes, the less likely it is he comes out on top. Won’t touch Almeida on FD, will be hard pressed to find him in optimal today, especially if it’s a grappling affair that doesn’t end early.
PICK: Jailton Almeida $23 FD ($9400 DK)
Danilo Marques $8 FD ($6800 DK)
Phil Rowe vs Jason Witt
Another potential fight to target just simply due to mid range fighting. Witt is a solid fighter, he’s got decent striking and looks to close distance and make fights a grinding affair. At his best if he can get things to the mat where he can have nice top control for ground and pound opportunities. What’s always been troubling is his chin, all of his losses have come via being finished. He’ll probably never have a consistent enough game to make any type of meaningful run, especially due to his lack of athleticism. On the other side, we’ve got a prospect looking to continue to try and make a name for hisself in Rowe. Rowe has all the physical attributes to be successful in this division, there are no questions around his athleticism. His biggest thing right now is being consistent, he’s a range striker, and will look to set things up from there. Offers nice power in his punches, and if he puts it altogether, can definitely find a finish. He has mental lapses at times, so if his fight IQ continues to improve, we could see nice things out of him. He’ll need to not put himself in bad positions on the mat and I think he takes this one pretty handily, possibly finding a finish down the stretch, he’ll typically start slow to feel his opponents out. 3rd TKO/KO is the pick for Rowe.
PICK: Phil Rowe $16 FD ($8400 DK)
Jason Witt $15 FD ($7800 DK)
Denys Bondar vs Malcolm Gordon
Don’t let Malcolm Gordon’s last win distract you from the fact that he’s Malcolm Gordon. That last fight was pure desperation and him putting everything behind him to grind out a win. The brother of Deiveson Figueiredo didn’t offer much in the way of power that generally causes Gordon issues. All 5 of Gordon’s losses have come ITD. He reacts terribly when he gets hit hard and out of it, looks like a deer in headlights at times. Aside from that he’s a good striker, and if he can put it together and not be as chiny as he is, he could be tough for most, he’s got good cardio and a high motor, does well in guard, but sometimes puts himself in comprisable situations on the mat to get subbed. He gets Bondar, who’s making his debut here, but has all the tools to get things started in the right way. A committed grappler/wrestler, he uses decent striking to close distance and look for the TD so he can get to work on the ground. He’s got 12 wins ITD, 8 subs. His level of competition hasn’t been what Gordon has seen, but he seems more than capable of taking this one.
PICK: Denys Bondar $20 FD ($9100 DK)
Malcom Gordon $10 FD ($7100 DK)
by: Chris Joseph (cmj0009)
Best of luck to you all!