UFC Vegas 60
Cory Sandhagen vs Song Yadong
Here we go. Yadong has a chance to really prove himself. He’s won 4 of his last 5, including a decision win over Chito Vera, which has aged really well to this point. Not such luck with Sandhagen recently, as he’s 2-3 over his last 5. The losses to the elite of the division though, Aljamain (current champ), Petr Yan (former champ), & TJ Dillashaw (current challenger for the belt). And some would argue, due to damage inflicted, that Sandhagen won vs Dillashaw, but it was a banger of a fight, and I expect much of the same here. Yadong is only 24yrs old, and has looked better every time he’s entered the octagon, but this figures to be his biggest test. Yadong pressures well, and he puts together solid combinations with good power. He’ll be at a reach/height disadvantage in this one that he’s not used to though. He’ll be giving up 3” in both areas. So it’ll be tougher for him to get in the pocket against Sandhagen who does a solid job of using his length to help maintain his distance to find his range. Yadong lands 4.92 SS/m (absorbs 3.78 SS/m), while Sandhagen applies just as much pressure, and he lands 6.42 SS/m (absorbing 4.5 SS/m). Both are pretty accurate in terms of their striking, so should be in line for a technical kickboxing matchup. I believe Sandhagen will be able to push the pace he wants, which will relegate Yadong to being a counter striker for the majority of this one. Neither guy has had durability issues, so a finish seems unlikely, but if it were to happen, it’d be later in the RDs (4/5). Sandhagen should have no issues finding his range by the 2nd RD, and from there, he should be able to win most RDs on his volume/activity. It’s not too often I lobby for stacking fights, but this is one of them. Given 5 RDs, in what should be a decision either way, both men will land north of 110+ SS each, among other peripheral stats potentially, so the potential is there for the loser to score nicely as well.
PICK: Cory Sandhagen $23 FD ($9200 DK)
Song Yadong $14 FD ($7000 DK)
Co Main Event
Gregory Rodrigues vs Chidi Njokuani
Chidi has announced himself to the MW Division so far. Two impressive KO’s to start his UFC tenure over MAB & Dusko Todorovic. He’s patient on the feet, and so his volume won’t be great in any prolonged bouts, but what he lacks in volume, he makes up for with his power. He’s landing 3.76 SS/m (absorbing just 1.45 SS/m), so not awful output by any means, but Rodrigues lands at a much higher clip, 6 SS/m (absorbs 5.73 SS/m in return). Rodrigues also has solid power, but Njokuani’s distance control figures to make it tough for him here. On top of that, Rodrigues often doesn’t move his head off the center line when exchanging, so makes it easier for opponents to return and land shots. Rodrigues will certainly have the upper hand in grappling however with his BJJ skills. He averages 2.4 TDs per 15mins, so if he’s able to get TDs successfully, he’ll have a chance to wear down on Njokuani. Njokuani’s TDEF is pretty solid though, near 80% accuracy in defending, and he certainly doesn’t accept positions if taken down. This one has the makings of being one of the more violent fights on the card, and a great one to target DFS wise. I think Njokuani continues his KO streak, Rodrigues’ lack of head movement, and knowing it’ll be tougher to close distance vs Njokuani gives me enough pause. 2nd RD KO/TKO is the call.
PICK: Chidi Njokuani $16 FD ($8000 DK)
Gregory Rodrigues $16 FD ($8200 DK)
Andre Fili vs Bill Algeo
This should be a fun one. Recency bias is going to sway ownership in this fight big time in favor of Algeo. Algeo is on a 2 fight win streak, with wins over Herbert Burns & Joanderson Brito. While Fili is 0-2-NC, his last few times out, one of the losses being to Brito via KO in under 60 seconds, just bad luck. But people will correlate the 2 and they shouldn’t. I’ll admit, Algeo is a solid all around fighter, but he has his holes that the right type of matchup can exploit. He’s got solid striking, not a ton of power, and is a decent to above average wrestler/grappler. Fili is also a solid all around fighter, but IMO, has better technical striking, and will pack a better punch in terms of power. He’s also the much better wrestler/grappler here. And as we’ve seen, Algeo’s TDEF is near awful, and anyone with any real skill in that area can take him down. This fight appears to be a rematch of Ricardo Ramos vs Algeo, where Ramos was able to consistently string together TDs, regardless of if he was able to do anything with them or not. And as a result, Algeo was left with trying to catch up as much as possible when the fight took place on the feet, but he couldn’t. Fili will use his striking to help close distance before he shoots for TDs, and should find success. This will be a fun matchup, and maybe Algeo continues to improve, it’s just this matchup seems bad for him as long as Fili sticks to his game plan. Algeo will probably be 30-40% owned, while we could get Fili around 20%, and I’ll take those odds any day. Will be well over the field on Fili. His peripheral stats should look solid if this goes to a decision. Could see 5-7 TDs, 60ish SS, & decent control time over the course of 15mins.
PICK: Andre Fili $15 FD ($8300 DK)
Bill Algeo $15 FD ($7900 DK)
Joe Pyfer vs Alen Amedovski
Amedovski is essentially being fed to the wolves in this matchup, and likely will be given his walking papers from the UFC afterwards. Pyfer is a product of DWCS, and looks to be an up and coming problem for the division. He’s got a large frame for the division, and he puts everything together well. He has power in his hands, and a suffocating wrestling/grappling gm when in top control. He lands only 3.45 SS/m (absorbs 2.45 SS/m), but the moderate volume has to do with the way he can approach a fight. Averages nearly 3 TDs per 15mins (2.73). However in the future, against stronger grapplers, he’ll have trouble with defending TDs, luckily that won’t be here. Amedovski was a solid prospect coming into the promotion, he just hasn’t shown that he’ll be able to keep up with the level of skill in the UFC. Unless something freakish happens, Pyfer rolls. I’m just not sure he comes close to hitting value on DK, highest price I’ve ever seen for a fighter to this point in DFS. There’s an opportunity for 60 second bonus, but that’s what you’re essentially needing to happen, and that’s tough to gauge. Aside from that, I think this ends RD 1 regardless. Look for Pyfer to shine again.
PICK: Joe Pyfer $22 FD ($9700 DK)
Alen Amedovski $8 FD ($6500 DK)
Tanner Boser vs Rodrigo Nascimento
The lone big boy fight on the card has potential to be a solid one. A clash of styles here, wrestler vs striker. Boser wants things to play out on the feet, where he can find his range and put combinations together, in hopes of looking for a KO. Nascimento on the other hand, also has fast/powerful hands, but looks to close distance to clinch and look for TDs to look for submissions. Nascimento averages almost 2 TDs per 15mins (1.71), and also nearly 2 submission attempts per 15mins (1.7). So once in top control, he’s actively looking for different ways to finish the fight. We’ve seen the trouble Boser can have on his back, especially in his bout with Ilir Latifi. Except I’d say Latifi is physically stronger than Nascimento. In terms of numbers on the feet, Nascimento actually edges Boser in terms of output. Boser lands 4.23 SS/m (absorbs just 2.1 SS/m), while Nascimento lands 5.46 SS/m (but absorbs 6.1 SS/m). Durability hasn’t been an issue for either, but if either man is able to pile on shots, anything can happen. This is a dog or pass spot for me. I don’t think Boser finds a finish, so if he does win, it’ll be via decision and his score is likely underwhelming. On the other hand, if Nascimento gets the dub, it’s solid either way unless it’s a lay and pray fight for 15mins. Fading Boser is smart, and I’ll likely be over the field on Nascimento ownership. I actually think he can find a submission in RD 2. If it gets out of RD 2, we’re likely seeing the cards cause both will slow down considerably by that point.
PICK: Rodrigo Nascimento $11 FD ($7400 DK)
Tanner Boser $19 FD ($8800 DK)
Anthony Hernandez vs Marc Barriault
Love this matchup. Hernandez is starting to put things together, and he’s won 3 of his last 4. MAB has done the same, won 3 of his last 4. Hernandez is the better we’ll rounded fighter. He’s got beautiful technical striking when he puts it all together, and lands at nearly 60% clip (58%). He’s also got solid wrestling and is really good in terms of his grappling and finding submissions. He’s averaging nearly 6 TDs per 15mins (5.4), and about 2 submission attempts per 15mins as well (2.3). MAB is gm for anything, he’ll stand and bang on the feet, which is preferred, he just takes too much damage, in hopes that his durability won’t fail him. He’s got great output, lands 5.79 SS/m ( absorbs 5.04 SS/m in return though). He’s also got solid grappling on the mat, but I just see Hernandez as being a step ahead in that department. On top of that, MAB’s TDEF is below average (66%), so he’ll certainly have trouble defending. And should this see deep waters, Hernandez’s cardio won’t completely fail him by that point. He’ll continue looking for submissions etc if it’s on the mat. It’s tough to call how this ends, because either guy could get a KO/TKO on the feet, or Hernandez locks up a submission. Regardless, I think Hernandez finds a way to finish this one in the 2nd RD. So if betting, I’d just go ITD.
PICK: Anthony Hernandez $18 FD ($8700 DK)
Marc-Andre Barriault $12 FD ($7500 DK)
Pat Sabatini vs Damon Jackson
Love this matchup. Grappler vs grappler. Sabatini is perfect in the UFC so far, at 4-0. While he does rely heavily on his wrestling/grappling, he has solid enough striking skills/power that it can make a difference. He’s extremely patient on the feet though, and won’t rush, as evidenced by him only landing 1.69 SS/m (absorbs just 1.3 SS/m). That large in part to his offensive wrestling approach. He averages just shy of 4 TDs per 15mins (3.84), and nearly 2 submissions per 15mins as well (1.9). His cardio is solid, so 15min affairs in a heavy grappling affair doesn’t phase him. On the flip side, Jackson has won 3 straight fights, and 4 of his last 5 overall. He too relies on his offensive grappling to find success, but he’s much more willing to stand and trade on the feet. His numbers aren’t great by any means, but he’s definitely more active. He lands 2.55 SS/m (absorbs 2.86 SS/m), averages 2.47 TDs per 15mins, with just a hair over 2 submission attempts within the same time frame (2.1). Neither fighter has particularly great TDEF, Sabatini being the better of the 2 (defends at 50% clip), while Jackson defends at just 40%. Sabatini figures to be able to sprawl a bit better, and reverse positions if he’s caught on bottom, so I don’t fear he gets himself in vulnerable positions all too often. This figures to be a grinding matchup, but o favor Sabatini everywhere the fight is. Not confident he finds a submission, but has an opportunity to rack up a ton of total strikes on the ground like he has before, and could see 3-5 TDs overall with reversals etc, which is great for DK scoring. This matchup is much more appealing on DK than FD for me, in fact, I’ll probably fade it on FD. I like Sabatini via decision.
PICK: Pat Sabatini $21 FD ($9000 DK)
Damon Jackson $10 FD ($7200 DK)
Trevin Giles vs Louis Cosce
It’s been nearly 2yrs since we’ve seen this Cosce fight in the octagon, his brother had a fight a couple months ago. Both were highly touted prospects, and known for their quick finishing ability/upside. That didn’t go Cosce’s way in his debut. Although he did find early success, Sasha Palanikov was able to weather the storm, and over the course of the latter 2 RDs, he was able to essentially break Cosce after he gassed himself. Cosce was still able to dish out good volume the rest of the way, but it ultimately doomed him. Will hope to see an improved version of himself after the layoff. He applies great pressure, and has solid wrestling skills to fall on if needed. Giles hasn’t had good luck his most recent times out, he’s suffered back to back KO losses to the hands of Du Plessis & Michael Morales. In the Du Plessis fight, his lack of defensive awareness & cockiness got him caught in an exchange as he was pressuring forward. He drops his hands low sometimes and hopes that his movement on the feet is enough. If he can shore that up, and actually fight defensively responsible, he’ll be a lot better off. Time will tell. But Giles should dictate things early with his pressure. He’s got solid striking skills, and his power can cause issues. Not confident his chin isn’t an issue these days, but I think he has enough to survive RD 1 from Cosce, at which point, I assume Cosce will start to gas again. That should open the door for Giles to find his shot and get a finish. Cosce is one of my fav dogs on the slate, and will definitely have shares, but I like Giles via 2nd KO/TKO.
PICK: Trevin Giles $20 FD ($9100 DK)
Louis Cosce $11 FD ($7100 DK)
Loma Lookboonmee vs Denise Gomes
I have not an absolute clue why Loma opened at the odds she did, and can’t remember what it was for her to be this pricey, but I’m glad, because it’s an easy fade. She’s only about a -200 fav right now, there’s 4 other fighters currently with better odds. Wouldn’t consider Loma a UFC vet yet, but she’s had the experience. She’s 3-2 overall, and has a mixed bag of tools to fall back on. She’ll mix things up on the feet, and if given the opportunity, look for opportunities to look for TDs and utilize her wrestling. She’s got pretty good volume on the feet, she lands 4.41 SS/m (absorbs just 2.81 SS/m), she does pretty good with her distance control and doesn’t take as much damage as a result of that and her clinch work. She averages 1.4 TDs per 15mins. Gomes is making her debut, she’s 6-1 overall professionally and appears to have some solid tools to find some success with lower level WMMA for the time being. She prefers a standup battle, and offers great volume on the feet, lands 6.87 SS/m (absorbs 3.67 SS/m). If Loma opts to actively have a wrestling approach, then she could find trouble getting back to her feet, but fight IQ is always a concern with lower level fighters. This is a dog or pass spot for me, wouldn’t roster Loma in any capacity, she’s too expensive and won’t pay off her steep price tag. I feel as though she’ll do enough here though to get a decision. Won’t mind some shots on Gomes at such a low price tag to potentially get elsewhere pretty easily.
PICK: Loma Lookboonme $21 FD ($9500 DK)
Denise Gomes $9 FD ($6700 DK)
Daniel Zellhuber vs Trey Ogden
Zellhuber is making his UFC debut, and is 12-0 overall professionally. He’s got some holes in his gm when it comes to his wrestling/grappling, but has appeared to get a bit better over his last several fights. His greatest asset in this division will be his size/length, and his striking ability. He’s got great kickboxing skills, and will utilize kicks to the body to help set up offense with his hands. He’s not defensively great in terms of striking, and therefore gets hit a lot, but there have been no durability concerns to this point, and that certainly won’t be an issue in this matchup. Ogden was essentially in an even striking battle with Jordan Leavitt his last time out, that doesn’t bode well here. The biggest concern here in terms of upside for Zellhuber will be his TDEF. If he can stuff shots early, it’ll detour Ogden from shooting for TDs as much. Zellhuber has a shot to make a nice splash in his debut, and I believe he gets it done. Calling for a RD 3 KO/TKO.
PICK: Daniel Zellhuber $22 FD ($9400 DK)
Trey Ogden $9 FD ($6800 DK)
Gillian Robertson vs Mariya Agapova
When Agapova debuted vs Hannah Cifers and blasted her out of there in such dominant fashion, I just knew we were destined for another female fighter to come along and take care of business. That quickly went south, as she lost in one of the biggest upsets in UFC history from a line perspective, she closed around -1600 for that fight. She showed that she had bad cardio issues if she can’t finish with her initial barrage. Shana Dobson weathered the early storm, and bounced back to finish her in RD 2. It appeared in her subsequent 2 fights, that she worked on her pacing, and she didn’t gas herself vs Sabina Mazo. She showed an improvement in her technical striking, and the power she offers was there. In her bout vs a determined Maryna Moroz, she couldn’t stuff the TDs, or do anything in terms of the pressure she faced when things hit the canvas. As a result, she was eventually submitted. The glaring hole in her gm is her TDEF and being able to effectively wrestle off of her back. At some point, this fight figures to take place there, so will be interesting to see any improvements there. For Robertson, she’s lost 3 of her last 4 fights, to the likes of JJ Aldrich, Miranda Maverick & Taila Santos. Not a bad group to stumble on, but you’re what you’re record says you are, so she needs to pick up a win here. She was able to have some sort of success in terms of her wrestling/grappling against all 3 opponents I just mentioned, and i figure all of them have better wrestling than Agapova will have to this point. Robertson averages close to 2.5 TDs per 15mins (2.36). She won’t shy away from her game plan. She’ll try to figure Agapova out early, and from there begin to work her gm, she’ll try to get into the clinch as much as possible and look for trips etc. Until Agapova shows massive improvements from a defensive wrestling standpoint, I’ve got to favor the better fighter in that area every time against her, especially one that’s tough to knock out. I think we’ll see a 2nd or 3rd RD submission win from Robertson.
PICK: Gillian Robertson $17 FD ($8500 DK)
Mariya Agapova $13 FD ($7500 DK)
Javid Basharat vs Tony Gravely
Gravely has had a good last couple of outings, and comes into this one on a 2 fight win streak, his last bout being a KO win over Johnny Munoz Jr., a highly regarded BJJ fighter who didn’t have an opportunity to get that part of his gm going. Gravely caught him with something and it put him down. Thus showing that Gravely has a full arsenal of tricks up his sleeve. His main approach is the through relentless pursuit of TDs to get his wrestling going. He averages nearly 7 TDs per 15mins (6.65). But has also shown that fights that go longer for him start to push his cardio a bit. In his fight against Nate Maness, he was doing well, had even dropped Maness, so he decided to engage in a brawl and it backfired. He zapped his cardio, and Maness recovered enough to turn the tide on the fight. It feels like that could have similar results here. Basharat is an undefeated prospect, coming off of a nice win over Trevin Jones. He’s shown to have solid TDEF (100% accuracy to this point in his UFC career), so will he interesting to see how he fairs against Gravely’s approach. Basharat is very defensively sound, so he won’t engage in any unnecessary brawls on the feet, but he does a good job of utilizing his kickboxing and putting combinations together. He lands 5.45 SS/m (absorbs just 2.53 SS/m). Gravely lands 3.92 SS/m (absorbing 3.04 SS/m). Both really technical in terms of accuracy landed as well, 58% vs 52% respectively. In what should be an entertaining bout, I favor Basharat’s overall skill set to come through. Gravely’s best window will be another early stoppage, because as this fight goes longer, it should favor Basharat. I’ve got him via decision. A little weary on DFS usage because overall output will be stalled due to wrestling exchanges.
PICK: Javid Basharat $18 FD ($8600 DK)
Tony Gravely $13 FD ($7600 DK)
Nikolas Motta vs Cameron VanCamp
Really love this fight to open up the card. Both men suffered KO losses in their debuts and are looking to bounce back. Motta came in with some hype due to his well roundedness, and he got matched with a UFC vet in Jim Miller. Miller’s experience showed, and he got a 2nd RD stoppage. Motta has solid striking tools, and he looks to find the KO. He doesn’t have heavier hands than Fialho did, which was VanCamp’s debut partner at Welterweight, so this drop to LW should only help him. And I’m not sure if many remember, but VanCamp showed flashes in his debut, he stunned Fialho at one point, but he recovered and went for the kill. The size disparity here is something to note too. Motta is about 5’9, with 70” reach, while VanCamp is 6’2, with 74” reach. Which will make it difficult for Motta to find his range. VanCamp will also have better wrestling to lean on as well. For me, VanCamp needs to survive RD 1, and if he does, I think that’s trouble for Motta. Motta will try and dictate pace here, which’ll give VanCamp opportunities to find his range in counter striking to try and catch him. I’m taking the discount on 2 young prospects and siding with VanCamp to find a finish in the 2nd RD. Making him one of my favorite plays on the slate. This fight looks to finish on either side though, so would definitely take chances on Motta if doing multiple LUs.
PICK: Cameron VanCamp $10 FD ($6900 DK)
Nikolas Motta $20 FD ($9300 DK)
by: Chris Joseph (cmj0009)