High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov
This is a boring recommendation, and I likely don’t need to convince anyone, but it needs to be made. Khabib Nurmagomedov is likely the best fighter in the world, as he holds wins over Conor McGregor, Al Iaquinta, Edson Barboza, Rafael dos Anjos, and many more. The most impressive part is that Nurmagomedov hasn’t really struggled against any of them. His opponent, Dustin Poirier, has strung together multiple elite wins, including an impressive decision over Max Holloway. He relies heavily on striking, while Nurmagomedov is arguably the best Sambo practitioner in the world. He’ll likely be able to consistently take Poirier down, resulting in another impressive win. He scored 148 fantasy points in his last five-round decision, making him the easiest play on the slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Nurmagomedov is the top option this weekend.
Jason’s Pick: Mairbek Taisumov
Mairbek Taisumov does not lack talent, but he does lack a US visa and a clean USADA track record. His UFC career has never been stifled inside the octagon outside of one loss to Michel Prazeres back in March of 2014. He most recently defeated Desmond Green in September of 2018. This weekend, he squares off against Carlos Diego Ferreira, and it is unlikely that this fight goes the distance. It is currently -155 to reach the judge’s scorecard, and Taisumov is a -270 betting favorite. If Ferreira gets this fight to the ground, he should be able to utilize his third-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but Taisumov has a huge striking advantage. He has over 90 fantasy points in five of his last six fights, and he is slightly less expensive than the more popular top options, like Khabib Nurmagomedov and Curtis Blaydes.
Justin’s Reaction: I like this call. The upside is there, although I do like Ferreira more than most.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Don Madge
The odds in this fight are simply off. Don Madge knocked out Te Edwards in his UFC debut, and he has finished each of his eight wins in his fighting career. He gets a matchup against Fares Ziam, who enters this fight with a 10-2 record. He’s mainly a kickboxer, who has finished a few fights with submission, although they were generally lower level competition. Madge is an aggressive fighter, who throws with tremendous power. While Ziam may have the more technical striking, specifically kicks, I expect Madge to have the advantage on the feet. He’s likely to win this fight early with a knockout, but if he finds himself in trouble on the feet, he’ll also have the grappling advantage.
Jason’s Reaction: Madge has plenty of upside for his price tag, and he is one of the best mid-priced options on this Saturday’s slate. Great recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Omari Akhmedov
Omari Akhmedov is scheduled to fight Zak Cummings this Saturday at UFC 242. In the UFC, Akhmedov has only lost to Gunnar Nelson, Sergio Moraes, and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. He most recently defeated Kyle Noke, Abdul Razak Alhassan, and Tim Boetsch. Zak Cummings shares a loss to Gunnar Nelson with Akhmedov, and he also lost to both Santiago Ponzinibbio and Michel Prazeres. He most recently defeated Trevor Smith and Trevin Giles. Cummings has great submission offense, which could thwart some of Akhmedov’s pressure on the ground, but Cummings needs a slow-paced fight to settle into. Akhmedov is going to push the pace, and his aggressiveness will likely be too much for Cummings to handle. He will rely on his wrestling, if he needs to, and Akhmedov is a well-balanced striker. This fight is +110 to go the distance, giving both Akhmedov and Cummings massive upside on DraftKings this weekend. If Cummings does not win this fight via submission, he will lose. Akhmedov’s pace will out-point Cummings in a decision, if he does not find a knockout.
Justin’s Reaction: I agree here. If Akhmedov can control his cardio, he should be able to win this fight.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Joanne Calderwood
This is likely Andrea Lee’s fight to lose, but I still don’t believe she’s as good as others. More importantly, this fight is going to go three rounds, and Calderwood does have an outside chance at winning. She’s active throughout the entire fight, as she scored 71 fantasy points in her last loss. In her wins, Calderwood is averaging 107.8 fantasy points per fight. Calderwood’s last three losses have come against Katlyn Chookagian, Cynthia Calvillo, and Jessica Andrade, who have all found plenty of success in the UFC. Calderwood is a live dog, who has the potential to score well even in a loss. She’s a solid salary relief option in all leagues.
Jason’s Reaction: I like Calderwood in cash, but in tournaments, she won’t be a top target of mine.
Jason’s Pick: Dustin Poirier
This recommendation is exclusively for cash games. Both Dustin Poirier and Khabib Nurmagomedov are uptempo fighters, and prior to getting taken down, Poirier should find some success on the feet. In his only two fights to last longer than three rounds, Poirier landed over 170 significant strikes in both. His lower price tag will make rostering the mid-priced fighters much easier. Of course, roster Nurmagomedov, as well. The Dagestan-born champion is unavoidable in cash games. While this recommendation is slightly boring, it needed to be said.
Justin’s Reaction: This is such an easy play. If you aren’t using Nurmagomedov in your GPP, use Poirier. Don’t split it 50/50, but make sure you have one of these two fighters in every lineup.
