Jaime’s EPL punts and pivots
Week three of EPL kicks off Saturday with a 5 game slate that features Arsenal against West Ham, Everton against Bournemouth and the main event which looks like Mike Tyson against Butterbean in Liverpool against Brighton. The chalk of the slate is pretty simple Salah, Salah and Salah. In gpp it makes a lot of sense to fade the Egyptian Messi and pivot to someone with similar goal scoring odds with a much lower ownership projection. That pivot is my favorite forward on the slate. Here are my picks for this week.
Arsenal: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang $8,800
Aubameyang has the second highest goal scoring odds on the slate and the ownership between him and Salah could be massive. West Ham has has given up 6 goals in the first two games of the season and Aubameyang has yet to find the back of the net. This all sets up perfectly for a massive game from the Arsenal man and I expect him to get on the score sheet with a goal and maybe more.
Also, consider Huddersfield forward Steve Mounie $5,100. Huddersfield should get their first win of the season against Cardiff and we could be looking at massive leverage play here with a Mounie goal under 5 percent owned. If you are fading Salah and want exposure to Liverpool I really like Roberto Firmino $8,800 to get his first goal of the season.
Leicester City: James Maddison $7,600
This just seems like a free square on the board. You are getting a set piece guy who has scored 12 plus points in his first two games and now gets to go against a bad Southampton team. James Vardy is also out for this one which will give Maddison even more opportunities.
Also, consider Liverpool midfielder Naby Keita $5,500 who just seems way too cheap for a very active midfielder playing for the biggest favorite on the slate. Ryan Fraser $8,500 and Gylfi Sigurdsson $7,100 are also great plays at midfield.
Huddersfield: Chris Lowe $4,100
This is mostly a price play. Lowe is the cheapest defender that will take some sets for his team. He has crossed the ball 9 times this season and could add to that against a weak Cardiff team. He also comes with the clean sheet upside to give you a pretty safe floor of five plus points.
Also, consider Liverpool defender Virgil Van Dijk $4,000 who is playing for the biggest favorites on the slate and is pretty active on set pieces for Liverpool.
Leicester City: Kasper Schmeichel $4,600
This game is pretty even on paper but I do believe that Leicester has the better squad. Schmeichel has the win and clean sheet upside and should be tested enough to rack up some save points as well. He also comes at over a thousand dollar discount than both the Arsenal and Liverpool goalies. If you are going to fade Arsenal you can load up on Lukasz Fabianski $3,700 who could rack up saves and easily reach value at this price.
As always if you have any questions feel free to send me a message on slack or on twitter. I can’t wait to see all the screenshots after we dominate this week! Enjoy the slate and make sure to tune in to our slack when lineups come out since we usually drop a play or two in there as well.
Written by Jaime (Twitter: @jaimedurand1)
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