Welcome back for the last EPL breakdown of the 2019/2020 season, and what an end we hope to have! All 20 teams kick off at 11am EST this Sunday… that’s right a 10 game slate! Anyone remember the last day of the Bundesliga season where we saw 35 goals scored? Yeah.. this could be more of the same fireworks. I’m going to limit my salaries to just DK this week as they have the bigger contests and more dynamic pricing but will definitely touch on some key Fanduel values and plays. Let’s jump into the match-ups and odds.
Arsenal (-110) v Watford o/u 3
Burnley (+130) v Brighton Hove Albion o/u 2.5
Chelsea (-120) v Wolves o/u 2.5
Crystal Palace v Tottenham (-185) o/u 2.5/3
Everton (+120) v Bournemouth o/u 3
Leicester City v Manchester United (+120) o/u 2.5
Manchester City (-1600) v Norwich City o/u 4
Newcastle United v Liverpool (-260) o/u 3
Southampton (+120) v Sheffield United o/u 2.5
West Ham United v Aston Villa (+125) o/u 2.5/3
Plenty to digest there…. biggest favorite by far is Man City, Liverpool other big favorite but a bunch of pretty even match-ups which is fun. The next big thing to discuss is any teams/games that have relegation or Champions League/Europa League qualification significance.
Manchester United– Clinch Champions League with Win or Draw, or Loss and Chelsea Loss combined. Guaranteed at least Europa League.
Chelsea– Clinch Champions League with Win or Draw, or Loss and Leicester Loss combined. Guaranteed at least Europa League.
Leicester City– Clinch Champions League with Win, or Draw and Chelsea Loss. Guaranteed at least Europa League.
Wolves– Clinch Europa League with Win, or Draw/Loss and Tottenham Loss.
Tottenham– Clinch Europa League with Win if Wolves Lose or Draw and with a Draw if Wolves lose.
Aston Villa– Escape relegation with Win or Draw and Watford Draw/Loss
Watford– Escape relegation with Win and Villa Draw/Loss or even a better goal difference win than Villa.
Bournemouth– All but relegated, would need Win and losses by Watford and Villa and have a much better goal difference happen in those games.
So do you target those games? Or do you fade them as they have more on the line and may be played a little tighter? Let’s jump into the game breakdowns to see where the edge might be.
-As stated earlier, Arsenal have nothing to play for and Watford are trying to escape relegation, but their form has been absolutely terrible this past month. They have not kept a clean sheet in the last 8 games they played… poor Ben Foster.
Arsenal Top Plays:
Aubameyang (8.2k) is really the only guy that stands out as a top play to me… Martinez (5.3k) is interesting as he should see shots but they may not have a lot of sting to them. Good upside GPP keeper.
Watford Top Plays:
Deeney (6k) is deep GPP but since Arsenal love to give up penalties he has a decent chance to net one. I don’t mind Will Hughes either as a value piece (4k) since they have to push.
This one doesn’t have much zing to it… both teams have been pretty solid. Burnley haven’t lost in 7 games and Brighton have two draws after a drumming from Man City (you get a pass).
Burnley Top Plays:
Gudmundsson (5.1k) he looked much more like the old JBG and that’s one that can be 7-8k price in a good matchup. Tarkowski (3.3K) is a CB but one who gets forward on set pieces. Pope (4.8k) has been outstanding… last 7 games: 3 GA, 27 saves…. yes 27!
Brighton Top Plays:
Not interested in anyone really, Trossard at 6.1k is interesting but not a top value.
Big, big game… both teams NEED this as I stated above, should be VERY intense. I think in this game that might not be the best for fantasy purposes. But Chelsea did just play a 8 game shootout with Liverpool so anything is possible.
Chelsea Top Plays:
Pulisic should start this game after coming off the bench and lighting the world on fire vs Liverpool but unfortunately he is priced as so… 9k. That’s $700 more than Willian… shocking but form is definitely everything on pricing right now. If Tammy Abraham starts I have some interest (5.7k) and Reece James is a decent defense play at 4.8k. Please… please don’t play Kepa.
Wolves Top Plays:
Jimenez (6.9k) is priced really nicely for the upside he can provide but Wolves just haven’t been clicking completely yet. Moutinho for 5.1k is solid value. Doherty at 4.1k is the cheapest I’ve seen him since February and has best offensive upside for this team. Patricio (4.1k) is a good price and will see shots… he’s a top GPP keeper behind a solid defense.
Crystal Palace- Tottenham
Tottenham need this one and Palace need this one to be over with… their injuries have been devastating on defense. Spurs look like a great stack but the Mourinho factor looms large… he’s known to get a lead and then park the bus. Kills fantasy value like no other.
Crystal Palace Top Plays:
Zaha (6.3k) has 4 straight double digit games… priced down due to match-up but Spurs are not sound defensively, he could get a few good looks.
Tottenham Top Plays:
Son (9.6k) and Kane (9.4k) are pricey but have excellent form and a top matchup… I think they will be underowned though and are good GPP pivots to some other top spots.
Everton have been bad, then good, then awful, then decent… it’s a typical Toffee yo-yo and Bournemouth are desperate to win and will need help.
Everton Top Plays:
Richarlison (7.7k) I never get him right… but the price is solid for the upside. This game will be OPEN and him and Digne (7k) should have plenty of chances to do things in front of goal. Pickford (4.9k) will see a lot of shots… most of them probably pretty bad… could get 5 saves pretty easily.
Bournemouth Top Plays:
Callum Wilson (4.6k)… what a value! He should shoot as much as possible and Everton are far from rock solid in the back. Lloyd Kelly (2.5k) is a min-price punt.
Leicester City- Manchester United
One of the PREMIER matches of the day… whoa baby… both want this one BAD. United only need a draw though so that could limit some fantasy goodness… at first glance this is a good spot to fade.
Leicester Top Plays:
Vardy (7.7k) he’s the guy who scores the goals…. oh and he wants that Golden Boot (2 goal lead over Ings). Ndidi (3.6k) should be very, very busy in the middle and is a great FD value play and decent DK punt.
United Top Plays:
Martial (7.9k) cheapest he’s been in 4 months… has a goal or an assist in each of the last 5 games. Wan-Bissaka (4.2k) came on at half-time for a poor Fosu-Mensah and performed really well… has double digit upside.
Manchester City- Norwich City
Oh god… poor Norwich… relegated, without all their good players…. oh and they get to face the City juggernaut who don’t ease off the gas for anyone. -1600 with a 4 goal o/u is pretty ridiculous.
Manchester City Top Plays:
Everyone?… Sterling (10.3k) has an insane 96% goal odds according to our stats guru Luke…. that is unheard of!! De Bruyne is always a top play, and is most expensive player on the slate at 10.7k. What I want to see though is if Mahrez is in (8.1k) and Jesus (7.8k) are both excellent values for their upside. This is David Silva‘s swan song too for City so if he starts in place of KdB…. I want ALL of that for 7k. Mendy (4.4k) is a good price for someone who should be on the front foot about 80% of the match. Ederson is a near lock for a Win/Clean Sheet but is 6k!
Norwich City Top Plays:
Tim Krul (3.6k) yes, I just talked up Man City like the next best thing since sliced bread but bear with me for a second….. Krul can still hit value! Last match vs. Burnley- 2 GA 7 Saves… what’s to say he can’t let in 4 but save 7 again? Not for the faint of heart but it’s my GPP call of the slate that he hits 10 fpts.
Another game with nothing much to play for… Liverpool just played a very demanding game vs. Chelsea where they scored 5 but uncharacteristically let in 3. Their iron clad defense has not shown up since the restart and they will be in search of more momentum as we head towards Champions League again.
Newcastle Top Plays:
Saint-Maximin (6.2k) for some reason Newcastle is priced pretty high and that doesn’t want me to play anyone… Ritchie at 7.5k vs Liverpool? No thanks.
Liverpool Top Plays:
Salah (9.2k) he is a man on a mission after being shutout vs leaky Chelsea. He is projected for 3 SOG… Check out Luke’s projections at dfskarma.com/soccer-projections-portal-epl-draftkings-2 for more excellent stat tidbits. Mane (8.5k) is a great pivot spot, same upside (minus PK duty). Alexander-Arnold (7.7k) threw up another insane stat line with a goal and an assist from a full-back… the upside is real but I don’t think I’ll prioritize defense over attacking positions on a slate like this. Alisson (5.9k) is another good shot at Win/Clean Sheet and may get a save or two to boot for $100 less than Ederson.
Southampton- Sheffield United
This game has very little interest to me… both teams have been playing defensively and well at it to boot. The Blades are an amazing story, first year in the EPL and almost made it into an Europa spot but they just don’t have the firepower right now… I hope they buy a striker or two.
Southampton Top Plays:
Ings (8.4k) he trails Vardy by 2 for the Golden Boot… I’d bet he gets one on Sunday but his floor is virtually nothing. Ward-Prowse (8.2k) same thing goes for JWP, his upside is high but the floor isn’t enough for a 8k salary. I don’t mind McCarthy at 5k in goal… Sheffield don’t score many.
Sheffield Top Plays:
Norwood (5.2k) set piece duty… good price but not sure it’s worth it. Their defenders are a little pricey but they are always involved if they do go forward. Henderson has been a top goalie play a lot, I think he is in a good spot and could pay off for only 4.4k.
West Ham United- Aston Villa
Villa NEED to win, simply put. They’ve played well 2 wins and a draw the last 3 to give themselves the chance to crawl back into the EPL for next season… I think they cement their position but it will be difficult as West Ham also have 2 wins and a draw in their last 3 games.
West Ham Top Plays:
Antonio (8.8k) he is priced WAY up… his form is scorching hot but I can’t pay that for him. Bowen is questionable which hurts him too. Fredericks (3.8k) is criminally underpriced and will be a near lock for me.
Villa Top Plays:
Grealish (8.6k) can he finally throw up a big score? He is priced up so you have to hope he comes through… their is a lot riding on those shoulders. Trezeguet has been the man in form (3 goals last 3 games) and is still a good value at 5.4k. Hourihane has been taking most sets but is 7.4k. Hause (2.5k) is a great punt, he loves to get forward for sets and Villa will be pushing ALL game.
What a slate, what a day of Soccer it will be!! Be sure to join us in the Karma Discord and check out the projection portals from Luke to build the takedown lineups!
Until next season,