I can’t believe we are already on week 10. We were HOT in UCL this week and EPL last week and I am ready to keep the fire going.
I think this will be a ‘fun’ slate. Not a lot of goals like UCL definitely, so we could focus on some floor guys without having to worry about goals. However. I will want as much exposure to Liverpool as I can. They are HUUUUUGE favorites and their total is over 3 goals. That is just ridiculous for this slate. There are some nice floor pieces to build around Liverpool as well. I think there is a very clear path to cash lines this week and I hope the hat trick helps you get some green! Don’t forget to tweet me if you found this helpful or if it helped you find green! I love interacting with people on twitter. @FrostyDFS
Now onto the hat trick:
Lock of locks this slate: Mohamed Salah $11,400. He has a ~70% chance of scoring and it seems like he is finally heating up after a slow start. The only concern I have with Mo is that he played midweek and couple Liverpool players might be rested or he might not play 90.
For some reason all the Liverpool players are priced up, except for Firmino at only $8,500. If you want to fade Liverpool the Fulham and Bournemouth is the perfect game to attack. All four forwards are very much in play. This game will easily go over and I like a game stack for GPP’s.
I am pretty sure there are no cash options in this section; however, if you want to for some reason save up at forward, I could consider Redmond $5,400. It is hard to recommend a forward that has 0 assists and 0 goals this season but he still has some floor points.
Maddison is such a good play and in a really good spot BUT he is $9,100…tough to pay that much. I for $1,000 less I prefer Fraser for $8,100. Again, this is such a good game for production. Fulham allows A TON of peripherals and you will be happy seeing Fraser collect points every 5 minutes or less.
Surprise, surprise, another BOU/Fulham player. Sessegnon has a solid floor if you want exposure to this game for only $6,200. However; I would rather pay 1k more for Schurle if I have the money.
“Speaking about unsexy floor plays, Shelvey at only $3,700 is an absolute steal.” That is a line that I wrote earlier this season. Unfortunately, ‘unsexy’ Shelvey is now $5,200. He continues to put some amazing floor games and his salary relief will be helpful to fit two ‘pool players.
Holebas $7,100 and Trent Alexander-Arnold $6,900 are amazing plays but their price tag is very hefty. If you are going a balanced approach, I don’t hate playing both of them. If I had to choose just 1, I will pick TAA if Milner is out, if Milner in, Holebas.
I am hoping Joe Gomez $5,100 starts as a full back. He is a lite version of TAA for a huge discount.
Whoever does DK pricing absolutely hates Huddersfield fullbacks. Erik Durm continues to produce and he is only $3,900. He will be in my optimal lineup.
The top option is clearly Alisson for $6,000. I honestly don’t think I will have enough to pay up at goalkeeper so much. But if you love your line and you have 6k left, plug him in.
I always like having a player in the late game. I feel like it is good karma, for this week I might end up playing Schmeichel for $5,100. He gets a solid matchup against West Ham at home. I am expecting him to get a couple of saves with a win and cleansheet upside.
If for some reason you are fading Liverpool. Etheridge for $3,600 is an amazing value. He will have tons of save opportunities and as long as he doesn’t allow 5 goals he should easily meet value.
There are couple of straight bets that I like this week. I like the over on Bournemouth v Fulham (3 goals) and Leicester City to win +119.
If you want to do a small parlay, do: Bou/Fulham over, Wolves +146, Watford -138, Leicester City +119, and Liverpool -2.5 for a 30x multiplier!
If any of my advice helped, please don’t forget to tweet @DFS_Karma and me @FrostyDFS!