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Over Under 2/2 – New York Mets/Washington Nationals
Patrick Corbin’s strikeout rate is down a bit this season, but it still sits at 28%. He also owns a 12.4% swinging strike rate in 2019. He gets a matchup against the New York Mets, who are only utilizing three left-handed batters tonight. That’s a bit of a concern, as Corbin has been significantly better against lefties, but New York still leads the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. The Washington Nationals are -157 favorites in a game set at 8 runs, giving the Mets an implied run total of only 3.6 runs. In other words, Corbin should be able to pitch deep into this game, giving him ample opportunities for strikeouts. Wilson Ramos has been ice cold recently, posting a .189 average with a .324 slugging percentage and a .574 OPS over his last 10 games. He has also struggled with 27% hard hit and 22% fly ball rates to go along with an 87 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Ramos has been at his best against left-handed pitching, but this is an extremely difficult matchup against Corbin, who has found plenty of success this season. He’s hitting only seventh in the Mets lineup, and will see limited opportunities. I don’t expect New York to find much success in this matchup, and Ramos could struggle to find success, as well.
Play $50 on Patrick Corbin OVER 7.5 strikeouts and Wilson Ramos UNDER 1.5 total bases to win $114.50 (2.29x)
Over Under 2/2 – San Diego Padres/Los Angeles Dodgers
Kenta Maeda has seen mixed results throughout this season. He enters this game with a 21.5% strikeout rate, but he could see positive regression, as he owns a 13% swinging strike rate this season. His strikeout rate has also increased slightly at home throughout his career. Most importantly, Maeda owns an elite 31.1% strikeout rate against right-handed batters throughout his career. He gets a matchup against the San Diego Padres, who rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat and are expected to use six right-handed batters throughout their lineup. Maeda has thrown six innings in each of his last two games, and he should find the over once again if that’s the case tonight. Matt Strahm’s strikeout rate has dropped significantly this season, as it sits at only 21.5% in 2019. His swinging strike rate has also dropped to 9.8% this season. He has seen more success recently, though, posting 6+ strikeouts in each of his last three games. Strahm gets a matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who utilize both left- and right-handed batters against left-handed pitching. He has found success against both types of batters throughout his career, though, and Los Angeles ranks slightly above average in terms of strikeouts per at-bat. The total is set at only 7.5 runs, and Strahm could throw deep into this game, as well.
Play $50 on Kenta Maeda OVER 5.5 strikeouts and Matt Strahm OVER 5.5 strikeouts to win $124.50 (2.49x)
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