Welcome to another edition of Bales’ MLB Game Theory. In this article, I will outline my favorite plays and game theory thoughts for this MLB slate. You can find all of Karma staff’s cores through our MLB Premium Package. Without further ado, here’s our MLB Game Theory article!
| Pitcher | 1B/C | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
| Morton | Realmuto | Altuve | Ramirez | Tatis | Harper |
| Maeda | O’Hearn | Segura | Donaldson | Rojas | Cruz |
| Cobb | Olson | Hernandez | Arraez | Goodrum | Alvarez |
| Thompson | Muncy | Cronenworth | Machado | Correa | Verdugo |
| Keuchel | Schoop | Frazier | McMahon | Story | Cooper |
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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3-max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your MLB lineups.
MLB is arguably the most volatile of the major sports in DFS. That gives us a massive edge to focus on in tournaments. It allows us to avoid the chalk, make elite pivots, and find success in GPPs. In this article, I’ll be focusing heavily on the game theory of what I’m looking at for tonight. Keep in mind, I’ll also be outlining cash options at each position.
Pitchers
This is an odd slate without any true aces on the mound. With that being said, there are several solid pitchers that can be considered. At the top of the slate, Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton make outstanding options. The former boasts a slate-low 2.78 xFIP with a 27.3% strikeout rate, while the latter owns a 3.46 xFIP and a 27.6% strikeout rate. Both pitchers are favorites in plus matchups tonight. I’d expect Morton to garner more ownership, although I slightly prefer Cobb. Kenta Maeda is the cheap chalk on this slate. He’s a -231 favorite in a great matchup against the Detroit Tigers. Taijuan Walker and Blake Snell can be considered in cash games tonight, as well. They’re two high-end pitchers that come with surprisingly low price tags on this slate.
In tournaments, Zach Thompson immediately sticks out on DraftKings. He’d due for regression, although he still owns a 3.56 xFIP. More importantly, Thompson boasts a 32% strikeout rate, getting a matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who’ve struggled on the road this season. Shane McClanahan owns elite metrics, although he comes with quite a bit of risk against an elite Toronto Blue Jays offense. Wade Miley’s been playing well this season, and gets a matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. Although Milwaukee boasts an extremely high upside offense, they feature plenty of strikeouts, as well. Other tournament options include Cole Inrvin, Alek Manoah, and JT Brubaker. Keep in mind, you can use all of the cash options in tournaments tonight, as well.
Catcher/First Base
There are multiple options at catcher depending on what you choose to do at pitcher tonight. In cash games, J.T. Realmuto continues to be underpriced, especially in a great matchup against Garrett Richards. If you’re looking to spend up at the position, Gary Sanchez and Salvador Perez make outstanding options. Roberto Perez will likely be the chalky punt option. In tournaments, Buster Posey and Will Smith stick out as higher-priced options. Max Stassi, Tyler Stephenson, and Christian Vazquez can be used in the mid-tier. As for salary relief options, Victor Caratini, Zack Collins, and Pedro Severino all stick out at this position. This is a massive slate, and most positions are going to have a plethora of options to choose from.
There isn’t any true cash option that sticks out at first base tonight. The Kansas City Royals options – Ryan O’Hearn and Carlos Santana – can be considered, as they are both underpriced for a good matchup. If you’re spending up, Matt Olson gets a great matchup against Jordan Lyles, and he’s averaging 10.5 DK points per game on the road this season. Max Muncy is another option that sticks out, getting an elite matchup against a weak Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen. Other players that can be considered are LaMonte Wade, Alex Kirilloff, Gavin Sheets, Jose Abreu, and Bobby Bradley. Oddly enough, I wouldn’t be opposed to rostering any of these players in cash games or tournaments at this position.
Second Base
Jose Altuve is the top option at second base tonight. He’s only hitting for a .184 average over his last 10 games, but he owns 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 11 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over that span. Jean Segura is far too cheap once again tonight. He owns a .262 average with a .310 slugging percentage and a .636 OPS over his last 10 games. Segura also gets a great matchup against Garrett Richards in Boston tonight. Cesar Hernandez is another option that can be considered on this slate. He’s averaging 8.9 DK points per game over his last 10 games, hitting for a .297 average with 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 6 RBIs over that span.
Jake Cronenworth could go a bit overlooked because of his lefty/lefty matchup. He’s cooled off in recent games, although he does tremendous boast upside on any given slate. Cronenworth should see plenty of opportunities against a terrible Colorado Rockies bullpen, making him an elite option on this slate. Chris Taylor owns a .342 average with a .474 slugging percentage and a .849 OPS over his last 10 games. He gets an elite matchup and is a great pivot off of Altuve tonight. Kike Hernandez, Tony Kemp, and Jorge Polanco can also be considered for this position.
Third Base
You’re likely going to pay up at third base if possible tonight. There are a plethora of elite high-priced options with Jose Ramirez and Josh Donaldson leading the way. Ramirez has cooled off recently, but it’s impossible not to love him in a home matchup against Brad Keller. Donaldson’s found significantly more success in recent games, boasting a .300 average with a .667 slugging percentage and a 1.045 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 7 RBIs in those games. Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, and Justin Turner are other high-priced options that I believe can be used in cash games. If you need to save salary at this position, Luis Arrarez is the top salary relief play.
I have Machado listed as a GPP play in the chart above because he isn’t currently projecting for as much ownership as some of the other third basemen on this slate. He’s hitting for a .355 average with 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 10 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. Machado also gets an elite matchup against Kyle Freeland tonight. He’s an elite option in all leagues. Ha-Seong Kim is expected to draw the start for San Diego, as well. He’s been ice cold recently, but he’s a cheap way to get a low-owned option in the Padres offense tonight. Luis Urias is another solid option on this slate.
Shortstop
Getting up to Fernando Tatis Jr. is a priority of mine on this slate. He’s absurdly expensive, but averaging 12.2 DK points per game over his last 10 games. He’s posted double-digit fantasy points in 6 of those 10 games, as well. The matchup against Kyle Freeland and Colorado’s bullpen is only an added bonus. If you need to save money here, Josh Rojas and Niko Goodrum are reasonable options. Willy Adames is another high-priced option that I’d consider, as he’s priced drastically lower than Tatis. Adames continues to find success for the Milwaukee Brewers, posting a .306 average with 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 6 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games.
Carlos Correa has cooled off significantly over his last 10 games, but he gets an interesting matchup against Nestor Cortes tonight. The entire Houston Astros offense can be considered on this slate, and Correa will be a major factor for them tonight. Elvis Andrus is a cheap option, who is expected to hit second for the Oakland A’s tonight. He’s hitting .310 with 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 5 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases over his last 10 games. Andrus also gets a great matchup against Jordan Lyles tonight. Tim Anderson, Brandon Crawford, and Didi Gregorius can be considered tonight, as well.
Outfield
This is one of the only slates where I’m not looking to necessarily attack an entire teams outfield. The Philadelphia Phillies outfielders can be used, although Bryce Harper is far and away the top option. He’s hitting .325 with 7 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 10 RBIs over his last 10 games. Nelson Cruz is another elite outfielder on this slate. He’s been playing well, and he gets an elite matchup against Matt Manning tonight. Yordan Alvarez is a bit too cheap on this slate. He owns a .281 average with a .656 slugging percentage and a 1.067 OPS over his last 10 games. Andrew Benintendi stands out as a salary relief option in cash tonight.
Alex Verdugo hasn’t been playing well, but he gets a great matchup against Vince Velasquez in Boston tonight. He owns a .403 wOBA and a .228 ISO at home against right-handed pitching this season. The Minnesota Twins outfield can also be used here. That includes Trevor Larnach and Max Kepler. Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays are far too cheap for their matchup against Dallas Keuchel on this slate, while Mike Yastrzemski is another outstanding high-priced option tonight.
Stacks
There are a plethora of offenses with implied team totals north of 5.0 tonight, meaning. we aren’t likely to see one chalk stack. The Minnesota Twins get an elite matchup against Matt Manning, who simply isn’t ready for the MLB at this point. The San Diego Padres get an elite matchup against Kyle Freeland and a terrible Colorado Rockies bullpen. The majority of their team is extremely expensive, which could keep a full stack lower than many would expect. The Boston Red Sox also get an outstanding matchup against Vince Velasquez at home. They’re another offense I’d be comfortable with in cash, although I have them a tier believe Minnesota and San Diego.
We have several elite stacking options in tournaments tonight. The Los Angeles Dodgers are arguably my favorite option. They feature elite upside in a plus matchup against a terrible Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen. The Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, and Cleveland Indians are more obvious options that aren’t likely to feature as much ownership as some of the chalkier stacks. They each can be used in their respective matchups. Stacks that could end up completely under the radar tonight include the San Francisco Giants, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, and Oakland A’s.
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