Bales’ MLB DFS Stacks and Hidden Gems for 9/21/18
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have featured an elite offense this season, ranking second in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, while also ranking 15th in team batting average. They have also featured an elite offense in New York, where they are hitting .262 with a .477 slugging percentage and an .824 OPS. The Yankees are averaging 5.6 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in New York, as well. Tonight, they are -305 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.9 runs.
The Yankees get a matchup against Yefry Ramirez, who has struggled over his last 10 games (six starts) with a 1-3 record, 7.24 ERA, and 1.70 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.4 HR/9 with an 8.6 K/9 over his last 32.1 innings. Ramirez has also struggled more against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .260 average with a .392 slugging percentage and a .363 wOBA. He has also struggled on the road, where his opponents are hitting for a .301/.457/.394 line this season. The Yankees feature one of the best offenses in the MLB, and Ramirez simply is not a pitcher that is going to slow them down. They should also see plenty of time against a weak Baltimore bullpen in a game that could get out of hand in a hurry.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Detroit Tigers have struggled quite a bit this season, ranking only 25th in the MLB in runs scored, 22nd in team batting average, 27th in OPS. They have been a better offense at home this season, where they own a .248 average with a .391 slugging percentage and a .698 OPS. Detroit is also averaging 4.1 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game at home. They are only -113 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 4.7 runs tonight.
Ian Kennedy will be taking the mound for the Kansas City Royals. He has struggled through 20 starts this season, recording a 2-8 record with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.5 HR/9, while recording an 8.2 K/9 through 106.2 innings. He has struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .269 average with a .484 slugging percentage and a .349 wOBA. He is also allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .256/.438/.327 line this season. Kennedy only recently returned from injury, and this is a matchup Detroit can take advantage of.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Shaw hasn’t really been producing recently, but he owns 66% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 98 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Shaw has also looked elite against right-handed pitching, as he owns 0.124 wOBA and 0.207 ISO differentials against righties. He’s also hitting fourth in the Milwaukee lineup.
Beltre is only hitting .237, bt he owns a .605 slugging percentage over his last 10 games. He has posted 51% hard-hit and 54% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Beltre also owns a .479 slugging percentage with a .194 ISO against right-handed pitching throughout his career.
Choi is a player that has looked outstanding against right-handed pitching, as he owns 0.134 wOBA and 0.109 ISO differentials against righties. Choi has also posted 53% hard-hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, Choi owns four home runs over his last 10 games.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Chen has struggled quite a bit this season, but he has been an elite pitcher at home. Through 12 home starts, he owns a 5-3 record with a 1.78 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. He has also held his opponents to a 0.6 HR/9, while recording an 8.4 K/9 through 71 home innings. Chen is also averaging a healthy 18.6 DK points per game in Miami. He’s an underdog in this game, but his opponents still feature an implied run total of only 4.1 runs.
Chen gets a matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, who rank as an average team on this slate in terms of strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking below average in team wOBA. Chen has also been a dominant option against left-handed batters, holding them to a .206 average with a .368 slugging percentage and a .247 wOBA. He’s also holding hit opponents to a .185/.290/.238 line at home this season. Chen is a great option for a low price tag.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Martinez is only hitting .206 with a .235 slugging percentage and a .498 OPS over his last 10 games, but he has looked elite against the Kansas City Royals this season. Martinez has also posted 64% hard-hit and 32% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
I have Ian Kennedy above, so I will not do that again. Martinez is expected to hit cleanup for the Detroit Tigers, which could add to his upside. He’s somewhat of a safe option, and he makes an outstanding play in a Detroit stack tonight.
Calhoun’s numbers look awful over his last 10 games, as he’s hitting .098 with a .171 slugging percentage and a .349 PS over that span. With that being said, Calhoun owns a 46% hard-hit rate with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, suggesting he has been a bit unlucky recently. He has also dominated right-handed pitching, as well, recording 0.01 wOBA and 0.089 ISO differentials against righties.
Calhoun gets a tough matchup against Gerrit Cole, who is holding left-handed batters to a .160 average with a .271 slugging percentage and a .239 wOBA this season. Calhoun is expected to lead off for the Angels, though, and he could see extra at-bats tonight. He’s a bit too cheap for his upside and spot in the lineup.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)