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Bales’ Premium PrizePicks – MLB Player Props 4/15/19

 

Matt Carpenter is in an interesting spot, as he hasn’t been an elite option this season, but we’re still taking the over. He has been heating up over his last 10 games, posting a .265 average with a .500 slugging percentage and an .866 OPS over that span. He also owns 37% hard-hit and 53% fly ball rates with a 92 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Carpenter gets a plus matchup against Freddy Peralta, who is a relatively wild pitcher, who has thrown his fastball over 80% of the time this season. That’s an extremely dangerous game against veteran players like Carpenter, who also possesses 0.044 wOBA and 0.028 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. As an added bonus, he will be hitting in an extremely hitter friendly stadium tonight, as well.

Freddy Galvis is far from an elite player, but it’s impossible to argue with his current results. On the season, he’s hitting .351 with a .684 slugging percentage and a 1.068 OPS. He has also moved into the lead off spot for the Toronto Blue Jays, giving him extra at-bats each game. Furthermore, Galvis has posted double-digit fantasy points in six of his last nine games. He brings 37% hard-hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days into this game, as well. Galvis gets an elite matchup against Martin Perez tonight, and he enters this game with 0.044 wOBA and 0.003 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. We need to ride the hot streak in plus matchups while it’s still going.

Play $25 on Matt Carpenter OVER 7 fantasy points and Freddy Galvis OVER 6.5 fantasy points to win $62.50 (2.5x)

 

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