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Ben’s MLB DFS Game Theory (7/23/21)

Welcome to Ben’s MLB DFS Game Theory. In this article, I will provide my top pitchers, bats and stacks for each day’s Main Slate. You can find all of our Core Plays through our MLB Premium Package, or you click here to join our FREE Discord channel.

 

Pitcher 1B/C 2B 3B SS OF
Zack Wheeler Lamonte Wade Brandon Lowe Josh Harrison Fernando Tatis Jr Juan Soto
David Price Miggy Cabrera Jonathan Schoop Eugenio Suarez Trea Turner Justin Upton
Freddy Peralta Trey Mancini Whit Merrifield Ke’Bryan Hayes Gleyber Torres Mike Yastrezmski
Gerrit Cole Shohei Ohtani Jose Altuve Jose Ramirez Zack Short Franmil Reyes
Joe Musgrove

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Pitching

We have a huge 14 game slate on tap tonight, with much less weather concerns than earlier in the week. There are tons of pitching options available, but none clearly stick out above the rest of the field. I think that will create fairly spread out ownership on DraftKings, and choosing the correct combo is going to be even more key tonight than on a usual slate.

The top options for me are going to be Zack Wheeler and David Price. Wheeler is my top spend-up, while Price is way underpriced for this match-up with the Rockies. Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for Philly this season, and owns the third-highest strikeout rate on this slate at 31%. He gets the best match-up of the aces vs a watered down Braves team — whose projected lineup sports a combined .311 wOBA.

Price is still going to be on a bit of a pitch count as he works back to being a starter, but I’m expecting close to 80 pitches here. Colorado once again has the lowest wRC+ in the MLB on the road (60) along with lowest ISO (.101).

There are plenty of high-upside GPP pivots, including Gerrit Cole and Freddy Peralta, who both own strikeout rates above 34%.

The number one projected owned pitcher tonight is Joe Musgrove, who you will see is in my fade section. Over the last 30 days, we have seen Musgrove post a scary 4.84 SIERA with only 18% strikeouts. I know the Marlins are a good lineup to attack with right-handed pitching, but this just isn’t the April version of Musgrove. I don’t see any reason to use what appears to be a mediocre pitcher at high-ownership on a slate packed with strong plays. I’ll pass here, even in cash game formats.

Batters

With the large amount of games, we are awarded with tons of stacking options at various pricing levels. As of early Friday afternoon, I’m focused on two main stacks in the Nationals and Giants. Washington is not really going to be a full-stack team for me, but there are some main targets I want including Juan Soto in all formats. Soto was hitting way too many ground balls in the first half of the season, and he himself even attributed his lack of success to that exact factor. He still has an above-average GB% over the last seven days, but he’s gotten the fly balls up to 40% and that comes with a massive 70% hard-hit rate. Jorge Lopez is not a great pitcher by any means, and his saving grace is being able to keep the ball on the ground. For that reason, we want to target the Nationals players with above-average fly ball and line drive rates. Apart from Soto, Josh Harrison, Trea Turner and Gerardo Parra are my top selections.

The Giants get one of my top overall match-ups against Chad Kuhl, and they are extremely cheap on DK tonight. Kuhl has pitched to a 5.46 SIERA this season with over 13% walks. He gives up tons of hard-contact to left-handed batters, and is another guy that relies heavily on keeping the ball on the ground. It’s a bad match-up for Kuhl, as five of the top six in the projected Giants order have above-average ground ball rates (below 36%). I want the lefties here, and Lamonte Wade, Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson are some of my favorite plays on the entire slate.

Rounding out my top-three for stacks is going to be the Los Angeles Angels against JA Happ. This is another pitcher I have loved attacking this season, and he is allowing over a .270 ISO to right-handed batters. Justin Upton and Phil Gosselin make for a great, cheap mini-stack and obviously we want to target Ohtani on every slate.

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)

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