Baseball

MLB DFS Slate Breakdown (7/23/21)

by
Justin
July 23, 2021

Welcome to the MLB DFS Slate Breakdown! In this article, I’ll offer my favorite cash and GPP plays to go along with the top stacks on our slate. You can find all of our Core Plays throughout MLB Premium Package, or you can click here to join our free Discord!

Vegas Overview – Below is an excerpt from our sister site, Bet Karma. It has daily player props, live trends, (below), and much more! Access all odds, trends, and line movement for all sports here: BetKarma Live MLB Trends

Projections will be updated throughout the day. You can stay up to date on all of our latest projections by utilizing our FREE projections portal at DFS Karma.

NOTE: Tables are embedded in the breakdown and update LIVE. The various tables will update with starting lineups confirmation, when projections are edited in the projections portal(s), and every hour. If a table is showing an error message or is blank, please wait a moment and refresh the page and it should re-populate correctly. Thanks!

Pitching

MLB DK Pitcher Table

Player	Hand	Team	Opponent	Opp. K%	Park	DK Salary	Proj. DK Pts.	FD Salary	Proj. FD Pts.	Proj. Ks	K%	BB%	HR/9	BABIP	SwStr.%	FB %	HC%	SIERA	WHIP	K-BB%	x	Player ID
Chase Anderson	R	BOS	OAK		OAK	6,600				1.76	17.20%	8.90%	1.77	0.29	9.20	43.00%	31.70%	5.17	1.42	8.30		502,624
Triston McKenzie	R	CLE	SEA		SEA	9,000	16.60			2.00	21.90%	17.80%	0.56	0.26	10.30	52.30%	45.50%	5.95	1.56	4.10		663,474
Jose Berrios	R	TOR	HOU		HOU	7,900				2.95	23.50%	6.70%	1.19	0.29	11.00	37.10%	35.80%	4.08	1.19	16.90		621,244
Justin Verlander	R	HOU	TOR		HOU	9,900				2.69	21.50%	6.70%	1.00	0.27	9.90	44.80%	40.80%	4.43	1.13	14.80		434,378
Luis Castillo	R	SEA	CLE		SEA	9,400				3.36	27.30%	7.00%	1.28	0.27	14.70	42.40%	41.80%	3.74	1.10	20.30		622,491
Randy Vasquez	R	SD	STL		SD	7,200				1.48	19.90%	10.80%	1.19	0.24	6.90	41.80%	37.80%	4.93	1.27	9.00		681,190
Yoshinobu Yamamoto			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
Alex Wood	L	OAK	BOS	23.30	OAK	6,900				3.08	17.30%	9.80%	0.83	0.30	9.00	36.70%	37.40%	4.98	1.43	7.50		622,072
Nestor Cortes	L	NYY	ARI	19.50	ARI	6,600				5.05	25.20%	7.50%	1.56	0.29	10.40	57.10%	40.90%	4.35	1.25	17.70		641,482
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
			SF		LAD					0.00	20.00%	20.00%	0.00	0.33	0.00	100.00%	33.30%	8.09	2.00	0.00
Player	Hand	Team	Opponent	Opp. K%	Park	DK Salary	Proj. DK Pts.	FD Salary	Proj. FD Pts.	Proj. Ks	K%	BB%	HR/9	BABIP	SwStr.%	FB %	HC%	SIERA	WHIP	K-BB%	x	Player ID

Zack Wheeler

It’s going to be difficult to go wrong at pitcher tonight with so many outstanding options, including at the top. Wheeler tops my list, though. Through 19 starts, he owns a 2.44 ERA with a slate-best 2.72 xFIP and a 30.6% strikeout rate. He’s been better at home, where he’s averaging 25 DK points per game this season. Wheeler also gets a great matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who are struggling with several injuries throughout their lineup. The Phillies ace is averaging 28.2 DK points per game in 3 matchups against Atlanta this season, as well. Wheeler is a -153 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, and he’s an elite option on this slate.

Joe Musgrove

Musgrove’s seen mixed results throughout the season, specifically in his last few games. With that being said, he’s posted a 3.14 ERA with a 3.49 xFIP and a 28% strikeout rate through 19 games (18 starts) this season. Although Musgrove’s struggled a bit more on the road in 2021, he gets a great matchup against the Miami Marlins tonight. Miami has a few injuries throughout their lineup, adding to the value of Musgrove on this slate. Although he isn’t the most trustworthy option in the MLB, he’s far too cheap on this slate, as he’s a -150 favorite in a game set at 8 runs.

David Price

Price has been throwing at a high level this season, although he’s been working his way into form, limiting his innings. Through 25 games (5 starts), he’s recorded a 3.12 ERA with a 3.48 xFIP and a 22% strikeout rate. Price’s pitch count has increased from 42 to 51 to 66 over his last 3 games. It’s expected to continue to increase as he gets in full form, suggesting he could throw 75+ pitches tonight, or 5+ innings. Price certainly comes with risk because of his unknown limitations, but he gets an elite matchup against the Colorado Rockies in Los Angeles. He’s also a -257 favorite in a game set at 9 runs. Price is entirely too cheap for his talent, and it isn’t likely his price tag will stay this low when he’s throwing 90+ pitches. On this large of a slate with several elite pitchers, Price makes a risky option, but he could be a key to getting one of the top stacks tonight.

Other GPP Targets: Freddy Peralta, Lucas Giolito, Yusei Kikuchi, Jake Odorizzi, Eduardo Rodriguez, Tyler Mahle, Johnny Cueto, Max Fried

Top DraftKings Batters

MLB Top Batters

Top FanDuel Batters

FD MLB Top Batters

Batters

C

Eric Haase

Haase is a mountain of a man with elite power for the Detroit Tigers. He’s only hitting for a .172 average over his last 10 games, although he boasts 3 home runs and 7 RBIs over that span. Haase gets a matchup against Kris Bubic, who’s struggled with home runs throughout the season. Most importantly, he enters this game with a .475 wOBA and a .446 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Haase’s expected to hit sixth in the Detroit lineup tonight, and he’s my home run call on this slate.

Martin Maldonado

Maldonado’s been struggling in recent games, posting a .107 average with 2 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 2 RBIs over his last 10 games. He’s recorded 5+ DK points in 5 of his last 6 games, though. Maldonado gets a great matchup against Kolby Allard tonight. He brings .087 wOBA and .125 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. Maldonado isn’t an elite hitter by any means, but he’s an outstanding punt option for one of the top offenses in the MLB.

1B

Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani comes with a ridiculous price tag tonight, but this is a matchup that may be too good to avoid [if possible]. Overall, the MVP candidate is hitting for a .231 average with a .513 slugging percentage and a .831 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 6 RBIs over that span. Ohtani gets an elite matchup against J.A. Happ, who’s consistently struggled with home runs this season. Even though he’s better against right-handed pitching, Ohtani owns a .406 wOBA and a .397 ISO against lefties this season. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s an elite play tonight.

Matt Beaty

There are several great options at this position, but I wanted to outline a salary relief play. Beaty’s hitting for a .313 average over his last 10 games, although he hasn’t flashed any power over that span. He gets an elite matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez, who continues to struggle for the Colorado Rockies. Beaty owns .111 wOBA and .136 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching throughout his career. He’s also expected to hit fifth in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup tonight. Beaty’s entirely too cheap for the position he’ll be in tonight.

2B

David Fletcher

Fletcher’s been one of the hottest players in the MLB over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s hitting for a .444 average with a .689 slugging percentage and a 1.145 OPS. He posted 7 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 11 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those games. Fletcher gets an elite matchup against J.A. Happ, who continues to struggle with a 6.15 ERA and a 5.21 xFIP. On the season, Fletcher owns .116 wOBA and .060 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. His price is up a bit, but he’s an elite option in all leagues in this matchup.

Alcides Escobar

Escobar continues to perform well for the Washington Nationals. He’s posted a .256 average with 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 4 RBIs over his last 10 games. Escobar gets an interesting matchup against Jorge Lopez in a hitter-friendly stadium tonight. He’s leading off for one of the highest upside offenses in the MLB, making Escobar an outstanding option for a relatively low price tag.

3B

Jeimer Candelario

Candelario’s found success in recent games for the Detroit Tigers. Over his last 10 games, he’s recorded a .273 average with 5 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 4 RBIs. Candelario gets an elite matchup against Kris Bubic tonight. He’s been slightly more consistent and more powerful against left-handed pitching throughout the season. Detroit is an offense that comes with quiet upside, and Candelario’s expected to hit fifth for them. He’s a solid option that can be considered in all leagues tonight.

J.D. Davis

Davis is the same price as Candelario, making it an interesting decision between the duo. The former’s been playing well, averaging 11.5 DK points per game in his 4 full games since returning from injury. Davis gets an interesting matchup against Steven Matz, who’s seen mixed results for the Toronto Blue Jays this season. The Mets third baseman can be considered in all leagues on this slate, although I may prefer him in tournaments.

Editor’s Note: Remember, you can sign up for all of our Core Plays here, or join our free Discord here.

SS

Jose Iglesias

There are multiple great high-priced options at shortstop, but I wanted to give you a few salary relief options to consider. Iglesias has caught fire in recent games, hitting. for a .359 average with 5 extra-base hits (2 RBIs) and 1 stolen base over his last 10 games. He gets a great matchup against J.A. Happ, and Iglesias boasts tremendous upside for a low price tag. He’s only expected to hit seventh in the Los Angeles Angels lineup, keeping his ownership down. Iglesias can be considered in all leagues if you need to save salary at this position.

Kyle Farmer

Another cheap option worth considering tonight is Kyle Farmer. He’s quietly posted a .303 average with a .515 slugging percentage and a .910 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 5 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 3 RBIs in those contests. Farmer gets a great matchup against Wade LeBlanc, who’s struggled in limited innings this season. He’s found plenty of success against left-handed pitching this season, entering this game with a .351 wBOA and a .192 ISO against southpaws. Similar to Iglesias, Farmer will hit late in the Cincinnati Reds lineup, keep his ownership down.

OF

Juan Soto

Soto continues to play at an elite level for the Washington Nationals, posting a .444 average with a .917 slugging percentage and a 1.491 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts 7 extra-base hits (5 home runs), 12 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over that span. Soto gets a great matchup against Jorge Lopez in Baltimore’s hitter-friendly stadium tonight. He claims to have figured out his swing during the All-Star Break, and Soto an elite spend-up option in the outfield tonight.

Justin Upton

Upton recently returned from injury, failing to record a hit in his first game against the Minnesota Twins. He was on fire prior to his injury, though, and he gets a great matchup against J.A. Happ tonight. Upton’s posted a .415 wOBA and a .328 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. He’s expected to hit third in the Los Angeles Angels lineup, and he’s entirely too cheap on this slate. He’s a player that can be considered in all leagues.

Austin Hays

Hays is another salary relief option that is mispriced tonight. He owns a .279 average with 5 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 6 RBIs over his last 10 games. He’ll also be playing in Baltimore, where he’s flashed more power this season. Hays gets a great matchup against Patrick Corbin, and he enters this game with .117 wOBA and .060 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit second in the Baltimore Orioles lineup, making him a solid option in all leagues on this slate.

A.J. Pollock

Pollock’s caught fire in recent games, posting a .417 average with a .861 slugging percentage and a 1.349 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 8 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 5 RBIs in those contests. Pollock’s also been significantly better at home this season, averaging 7.3 DK points per game in Los Angeles. He’s expected to hit second in the LA lineup, and he gets a great matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez tonight. Assuming Pollock is near the top of the order, he’s an outstanding option for a still reasonable price tag.

Stacks

“Team Batting Score” – A metric that quickly highlights overall team batting based on Runs Created (RC+) by team and comparing it to the average and standard deviation of all other MLB Teams

“Opp. Pitcher SP Score” – A weighted metric that evaluates today’s starting pitchers based on xFIP and Games Started (currently using partial end of 2020 data blended with the 2021 season)

“Opp. BP Score” – Similar to SP Score but weights the xFIP for the team’s bullpen

Team Batting vs. Opp. Pitch

Team	Team Batting Score	Opp.	Opp. Pitcher	Opp. SP Score	Opp. BP Score	PLAYER ID
BOS			Alex Wood			622,072
CLE			Luis Castillo			622,491
TOR			Justin Verlander			434,378
HOU			Jose Berrios			621,244
SEA			Triston McKenzie			663,474
SD
LAD
OAK			Chase Anderson			502,624
NYY
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD
LAD








Team	Team Batting Score	Opp.	Opp. Pitcher	Opp. SP Score	Opp. BP Score	PLAYER ID

DraftKings Team Stacks

DK MLB Stacks

Team	T2 DK $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 DK $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 DK $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%	T5 DK $	T5 Pts	T5 OWN%
Team	T2 DK $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 DK $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 DK $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%	T5 DK $	T5 Pts	T5 OWN%

FanDuel Team Stacks

FD MLB Stacks

Team	T2 FD $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 FD $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 FD $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%
Team	T2 FD $	T2 Pts	T2 OWN%	T3 FD $	T3 Pts	T3 OWN%	T4 FD $	T4 Pts	T4 OWN%

“T2” (and T3/T4/T5) represents the Top 2 projected hitters for the team on the left (not necessarily the top 2 hitters in the batting order)

Stacking is an extremely important element to MLB DFS. In MLB, all of your players are correlated to each other. Outside of solo home runs, they need each other to succeed. If you look at the top of all of the big GPPs every night you will see stacks dominating the leaderboard.

When using our stacks chart, we want to identify teams that are projecting well but the ownership does not reflect their chance of success.

We have a massive slate with several elite arms and plenty of terrible ones, as well. That means there are specific stacks to avoid but also elite stacks to attack. Below are my favorite stacks of the night.

DraftKings 5-Man Stack Ideas

LAA – Fletcher/Ohtani/Upton/Gosselin/Suzuki

LAD – Taylor/Pollock/Turner/Bellinger/Beaty

CIN – India/Winker/Stephenson/Votto/Suarez

WAS – Escobar/Turner/Soto/Bell/Harrison

DET – Baddoo/Schoop/Grossman/Hasse/Candelario

DraftKings 3-Man Stack Ideas

LAA – Fletcher/Ohtani/Upton

LAD – Pollock/Turner/Bellinger

WAS – Escobar/Turner/Soto

CIN – India/Winker/Votto

KC – Merrifield/Perez/Benintendi

Written by Justin Bales (Follow @BalesSJustin on Twitter)

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