Welcome to Ben’s MLB DFS Game Theory. In this article, I will provide my top pitchers, bats and stacks for each day’s Main Slate. You can find all of our Core Plays through our MLB Premium Package, or you click here to join our FREE Discord channel.
|Tylor Megill||Rowdy Tellez||Kolten Wong||Kris Bryant||Brandon Crawford||Judge + Gallo|
|Andrew Heaney||Anthony Rizzo||Brandon Lowe||Kyle Seager||Willy Adames||Austin Meadows|
|Josiah Gray||Lamonte Wade||Rougned Odor||Abe Toro||Wander Franco||Mike Yasztremski|
|Jesus Luzardo||Ryan Mountcastle||Josh VanMeter||Ke’Bryan Hayes||Javy Baez||Austin Hays|
Tilt your mobile device on its side for optimal viewing
We have a light seven game slate on tap tonight filled with young pitchers and no clear cut “ace”. Both Tylor Megill and Andrew Heaney are projecting for over 50% ownership on DraftKings, and I expect that to be the chalk pairing in all formats. Among qualifiers, they have the two highest strikeout rates on the slate at 28% and 27% respectively. Heaney is someone I’ve faded for the majority of the season, but he continues to be underpriced on DK. It makes sense to lock him in at high ownership in cash games, but looking elsewhere is always a fine move in large field GPPs.
One of the most interesting tournament options is Josiah Gray, making his debut for the Washington Nationals. This was one of the Dodgers top prospects, and was the prize of the Trea Turner/Max Scherzer trade. We’ve seen Gray for under 10 innings this season, but he has reached 79 pitches in one of his outings. It’s a very small sample size, but the results are strong including what would be a slate-high 37% strikeout rate and 20% swinging strikes. The match-up is pretty neutral against the Phillies, but he gets a nice boost with both Andrew McCutchen and Rhys Hoskins out of the lineup. I like him as a pivot off of the heavier-owned Heaney on both sites tonight.
Despite the smaller slate, we once again are awarded a “big three” stacks — the Yankees, Giants and Brewers. Of the three, the Brewers against Bryse Wilson are my favorite spot. Wilson has always had potential, but has been way too wild with his control. He has a career 10.5% walk rate, and has struck out just 14% of batters faced this season. Four of the top five in their projected order bat from the left side, and those are the targets for me in cash games. I wouldn’t ignore the righties in full stacks, however, as the Braves don’t feature an imposing bullpen.
The lower-owned full stack I’m most interested in is the Tampa Bay Rays. Chris Flexen has struggled over the last month pitching to a 5.02 SIERA. He relies on ground balls to get outs, so targeting the fly ball hitters on TB is my priority. Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi and Nelson Cruz all have fly ball rates above 37% this season vs right-handed pitching.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)