We lost of our plays for our PrizePicks prop last night. The most frustrating was the NRFI in the St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets game. Pete Alonso was initially given first base after a ball ran inside on him. The Cardinals challenged it with the replay clearly showing it was a foul ball, not a hit by pitch. Yet the umps awarded him the base anyway. The next pitch was the first run of the inning. It’s frustrating to lose something like that on an objectively wrong replay call, but Max Scherzer wasn’t able to go deep enough into the game to hit anyway. We’re utilizing Bet Karma’s SPF Predictor for the play below in the Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals game.
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Prop Pick – Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals
Vince Velasquez under 4.5 strikeouts
Velasquez’s seen mixed results in terms of strikeouts this season. He enters this game with an 8.1 K/9 and 20% strikeout rate, which rank as the lowest of his career. He’s recorded 5+ strikeouts in 3 of 6 starts this season, although he’s failed to reach that threshold in each of his last 2 starts.
Surprisingly, Velasquez’s been significantly better against left-handed batters, striking them out 28.1% of the time this season. He owns a 13.2% strikeout rate against right-handed batters. I expect these two even out more as the season progresses, as Velasquez has always found more strikeout success against righties.
This is important, as Kansas City utilizes more left-handed bats than righties throughout their lineup. They also strikeout at the 13th-lowest rate in the MLB this season. Furthermore, they haven’t been striking out at a high rate over the last 14 days.
The Royals aren’t a dominant offense that consistently can get to right-handed pitchers. With that being said, they also don’t strikeout all that much. Velasquez isn’t as dominant of a strikeout pitcher as some of the other Chicago starters, and he may struggle to find 5 strikeouts in this game.
Carlos Hernandez under 3.5 strikeouts
Hernandez is one of the strangest cases in the MLB. He struggled with strikeouts, recording a 4.39 K/9 and a 10% strikeout rate this season. With that being said, there’s very little reason to believe he won’t see positive regression.
First, his swinging-strike rate (10.3%) is higher than his strikeout rate. That’s nearly impossible, and the latter has to jump the former at some point this season. Second, very little’s changed from his last two seasons when he owned roughly a 20% strikeout rate. Granted, it could sit a bit below this as he isn’t throwing as well, but it should be drastically higher than 10%.
With that being said, this is one of the worst possible matchups for Hernandez. The White Sox strikeout at the second-lowest rate in the MLB against right-handed pitching this season. They’re also striking out under 20% of the time over the last 14 days.
Chicago boasts an offense that can get to any pitcher in the MLB, and Hernandez isn’t throwing at a high level. Although I do believe he’s going to see some strikeout regression in the near future, I’m not sold it will be in this game.
Bet Vince Velasquez “less than” 4.5 strikeouts and Carlos Hernandez “less than” 3.5 strikeouts to 3x your buy-in
