Last night ended with high levels of disappointment. Antonio Senzatela went under without issue. Alex Wood looked easily on his way to 5 strikeouts early in the game, but that halted at one point, and he ended up catching the hook at 4 strikeouts. I’m going back to the same game with our SPF Predictor on Bet Karma loving one of the two pitchers. Below, I’ll outline a pitching prop from the Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants game.
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2/2 More or Less – Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants
Chad Kuhl under 4.5 strikeouts
Kuhl’s quietly enjoying an outstanding season, as he boasts a 3-0 record with a 1.82 ERA over 5 starts. Obviously, he’s due for regression, but his 3.84 xFIP suggests he’s throwing at the highest level of his career.
Kuhl’s never been an elite strikeout option, though. He enters this game with a career-low 6.67 K/9. His 19.8% strikeout rate is only slightly lower than last season, though. Oddly enough, Kuhl also boasts the highest swinging-strike rate (13.4%) of his career.
At some point in time, Kuhl’s strikeout rate has to increase if his other rates stay steady. With that being said, I could see his CSW and swinging-strike rates (along with others) dropping in the next few games.
Kuhl changed up his pitch mix this season, but not necessarily in a plus way for strikeouts. He’s focusing on a sinker as his main pitch, and his slider rate dropped 7%. With slider’s being the top strikeout pitch, it’s surprising he’s getting as many swings and misses as he is at this point, but it isn’t shocking that his strikeout rate’s dipped.
Kuhl gets a tough matchup against the San Francisco Giants tonight. They’re striking out at the second-lowest rate in the MLB over the last 14 days, and I’m expecting that to continue. He’s been sitting at 4-5 strikeouts in every game this season, and the SPF Predictor likes him to sit around 4 once again.
Alex Cobb over 4.5 strikeouts
Cobb is the pitcher that we’re truly attacking here. He’s struggled with injuries early this season, but he looked healthy in his last game. Through 4 starts, he owns a 1-1 record with a 4.80 ERA. With that being said, Cobb boasts a 2.05 xFIP, suggesting he’s throwing at an elite level.
Cobb’s also been a dominant strikeout option, recording a 13.2 K/9 through 15 innings. He owns the highest strikeout rate (31.9%) of his career. He also owns the highest swinging-strike (16%) and CSW (31.9%) rates of his career.
Cobb made a slight change to his pitch mix this season, as he completely got rid of his 4-seam fastball to this point. He’s throwing his splitter nearly 50% of the time with his sinker (41.2%) and curveball (11.3%) as his other two pitches.
Cobb gets a plus matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who have struggled at times outside of Coors. He hasn’t thrown more than 5 innings in any start thus far, but he’s already posted games with 8 and 10 strikeouts.
Cobb got to 74 pitches in his second game back from injury, and I’m expecting him to throw 80+ pitches tonight. He has the ability to shut down offenses, and his strikeouts should continue to come. His total is simply set too low tonight, and our SPF Predictor shows that.
Bet Chad Kuhl “less than” 4.5 strikeouts and Alex Cobb “more than” 4.5 strikeouts to win 3x your buy-in