Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
The Baltimore Orioles pulled through yesterday, as Renato Nunez hit a home run to cash both the Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby and MyBookie prop bet recommendations. Tonight, the Colorado Rockies are still in Coors Field, but with Marcus Stroman on the mound, we are going to have to look elsewhere. Stroman has a ground ball rate over 60% and allows only 0.6 HR/9. Rick Porcello, on the other hand, in the last 15 days, has a fly ball rate of 45%, allowing 1.6 HR/9. The weather is acceptable in New York tonight, and the Yankees are the team to target. They have an implied run total of 4.9, and New York is a very hitter-friendly stadium. Lock in both of the two obvious options. Luke Voit is expected to hit second for the Yankees tonight, and he is hitting 0.082 HR/AB. Gary Sanchez is expected to hit fourth for the Yankees tonight, and he is hitting 0.080 HR/AB. Both batters have great advanced metrics, and there is no reason to avoid either one. So, who is the last recommendation? Clint Frazier hits right-handed pitching for power slightly better than Aaron Hicks, so roster him. He is hitting 0.057 HR/AB, and he is expected to hit seventh. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 242 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. Frazier will be rather underlooked tonight, making him a great option in all formats (MFK, betting, DFS, etc.). The Yankees tend to hit home runs more than most teams in the league, and one of these three power bats should get the job done in New York against a home-run-friendly Porcello.
Recommended Batters: Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Clint Frazier
Home Run Prop Bet:
Clint Frazier (+465) – New York Yankees – OF
Both Gary Sanchez (+260) and Luke Voit (+290) have odds to hit a home run that are not wide enough to warrant betting on. Clint Frazier, on the other hand, has very wide odds to hit a home run. He makes for a smarter bet, considering his advanced metrics and probability of going yard.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, there are no available betting options on PrizePicks. Check back later in the day to see if this changes.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)
