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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
Once again, the Colorado Rockies are out “Chalk Stack” tonight. They have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking fourth in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, 16th in home runs, and fifth in OPS. They will be playing in Coors tonight, where they were at their best in 2018. Through 81 games last season, Colorado posted a .287 average with a .503 slugging percentage and an .852 OPS at home. They also averaged 5.5 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Tonight, the Rockies are -150 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.1 runs.
Colorado gets a matchup against Marcus Stroman, who has thrown well early this season. He enters this game with a 3-6 record, 2.74 ERA, and 1.33 WHIP through 12 starts. With that being said, he’s due for regression, as he also owns a 4.07 xFIP and a 4.45 SIERA. He has held his opponents to 25.4% fly ball and 9.6% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a 38.9% hard hit rate, while posting a 19.7% soft hit rate. Stroman’s strikeout rate sits at 19.5% this season, while he also brings a 10.4% swinging strike rate into this game. He has been at his worst against left-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .257 average with a .404 slugging percentage and a .314 wOBA. He has also allowed his opponents to post a .263/.337/.279 line this season. Stroman’s ability to control his opponents power on the road may not come into play in this game. The Rockies always feature elite upside at home, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t find success in a plus matchup against Stroman tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are another elite offense, ranking second in the MLB in runs scored, sixth in home runs, and third in team batting average and OPS. The Dodgers were better on the road last season, but they still hit for a .242 average with a .433 slugging percentage and a .754 OPS at home in 2018. They averaged 4.5 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. Los Angeles is currently a -204 favorite in a game set at 11 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.1 runs tonight.
The Dodgers get a plus matchup against Cole Irvin, who has struggled through three starts this season. He owns a 2-1 record with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in those games. He has also posted a 5.08 xFIP and a 5.00 SIERA in the MLB. Irving has allowed 39.3% fly ball and 13.6% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a 45.6% hard hit rate, while recording only a 17.5% soft hit rate this season. Irvin’s strikeout rate sits at only 17.1% to go along with a low 7.3% swinging strike rate. He has been a reverse splits pitcher early in his career, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .353 average with a .647 slugging percentage and a .444 wOBA. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a .261/.435/.331 line on the road this season. Irvin is far from a dominant pitcher, and Los Angeles owns elite splits hitters against left-handed pitching. They have been one of the best offenses in the MLB throughout the season, and that should continue tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jose Urena
Urena has seen mixed results through 11 starts this season. He owns a 3-6 record with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.57 xFIP and a 4.83 SIERA in those games. Urena has held his opponents to a 28.9% fly ball rate to go along with an 11.5% HR/FB rate. His opponents have recorded a 42.5% hard hit rate against him, while he has posted a 13.6% soft hit rate in 2019. Urena’s strikeout rate sits at only 15.5% this season, while he owns an 8.7% swinging strike rate. Urena is a +138 underdog in a game set at 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.5 runs tonight.
He gets a matchup against the San Diego Padres, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking third last in team wOBA. Urena has been slightly better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .275 average with a .412 slugging percentage and a .316 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .243/.383/.295 line on the road this season. He’ll be throwing in one of the most pitcher friendly stadiums in the MLB tonight, and Urena is a cheat code to get a Coors stack in your lineups on this slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Kyle Schwarber
I’m going back to the well with Schwarber. He’s only hitting .195 over his last 10 games, but he also owns a .512 slugging percentage and an .804 OPS in those games. He has also posted five extra-base hits (four home runs) and six RBI in those contests. Over the last 15 days, Schwarber also owns 52% hard hit and 47% fly ball rates with a 97 MPH exit velocity. He possesses 0.004 wOBA and 0.064 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, as well.
Schwarber gets a matchup against Jack Flaherty, who has performed well with a 4-3 record, 3.77 ERA, and 1.17 WHIP through 11 starts. His 3.84 xFIP and 4.00 SIERA also back those numbers up. Still, he has allowed a 35.9% fly ball rate to go along with a 16.4% HR/FB rate in 2019. His opponents have also recorded a 40.3% hard hit rate against him this season. Schwarber is expected to lead off for the Chicago Cubs, and he makes an elite option in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
