Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
The Kansas City Royals are headed to Cleveland to square off against the Indians and Adam Plutko. With Brad Keller on the mound for the Royals, the Indians are also worth consideration in tonight’s Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby contest, but his ground ball rate is 12% higher than that of Plutko. Over the last 15 days, Plutko is allowing an average batted ball distance of 230 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate of 45%, and a hard hit rate that is identical to his fly ball rate. Most importantly, his HR/9 is 2.5 compared to Keller’s at 0.6. Vegas has this game set at 10 total runs, and the Royals are +160 betting underdogs, giving them an implied run total of 4.3. As an added bonus, the weather should be great for hitters at 75 degrees with the wind blowing 8 MPH toward right field. If the Indians 5.8 implied run total is more mouthwatering, roster Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, and Jose Ramirez. If you’d rather follow the advanced metrics to wherever it is that it leads, look toward the Royals. First, Alex Gordon is the confirmed three-hole hitter tonight, and he is averaging 0.032 HR/AB. He enters tonight’s game with positive 0.084 ISO and 0.036 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching, and his advanced metrics are solid. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 233 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate over 30%. Gordon is the least likely of the three recommendations to hit a home run, but he still has a chance. Next, move down one spot in the batting order to Hunter Dozier. It looks like he will switch batting order spots with Jorge Soler tonight, and both are worth consideration in a home run prediction contest. Dozier is hitting over .300 in his last 10 games with 2 home runs and 9 RBIs. He has a .311 batting average and 12 home runs on the season, and based on his advanced metrics, he is just getting started. In the last 15 days, which happens to only be 3 games for Dozier, he has a ridiculous average batted ball distance of 295 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 100 MPH, a fly ball rate over 60%, and a hard hit rate over 60%, as well. Couple that with his incredible 0.202 ISO and 0.098 wOBA differentials tonight, and Dozier is a lock. Finally, as previously mentioned, Soler is a great option, as well. He is moving down to hit fifth tonight against Plutko and company, but not for lack of power production. He is hitting .212 in his last 10 games, but he has 4 home runs and 6 RBIs. With 21 home runs on the season, his power is obvious. He leads the team with 0.073 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 240 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate of 50%. One of these three power hitters is taking Plutko the distance tonight.
Recommended Batters: Alex Gordon, Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler
Home Run Prop Bet:
Hunter Dozier (+230) – Kansas City Royals – 3B
As stated above, Hunter Dozier has ridiculous advanced metrics, even if it is only three games worth of data. He is seeing the ball extremely well right now, and while his home run odds are rather close, he is the best bet on MyBookie. Sometimes, doing the obvious thing is the best thing.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez (OVER 9.5, 8.0)
While these two players are not part of the recommendation above, they are part of the game as a whole. Both pitchers are rather horrible, and this game could get out of control quickly. Both Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez should be able to go OVER tonight on PrizePicks.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
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