Pitchers
Eduardo Rodriguez- We get a light seven game slate on Monday night, and one that seems like it’s destined to be chalky with the Yankees matching up with Aaron Sanchez, and the Braves/Cubs getting a huge bump thanks to 15 MPH winds blowing out in Wrigley Field. With everyone prioritizing offense, spending down at pitcher will be the general move in cash games, and that starts with Eduardo Rodriguez against the White Sox. I never like rostering Rodriguez as chalk, but the sites were super soft with his pricing, and he’s been more consistent this season than in year’s past. ERod has pitched to a 3.98 SIERA this season with 25% strikeouts, and his walks are down to around 7%. He’s recently gone 7 IP in back-to-back starts, and given that the White Sox are bottom-five in the MLB in walks vs left-handed pitching, he could go deep once again tonight. The White Sox don’t strike out as much as we would like against southpaws (14th most), but they also own the fifth-lowest ISO as a team and are not an intimidating offense as a whole. Overall, when factoring in Rodriguez’s price, he is a clear cut cash game option, but at expected high-ownership I will be underweight in tournaments.
Jon Gray (FanDuel)- If you’re looking to pivot off of Rodriguez, you can start with Jon Gray, on the road in pitcher-friendly San Francisco against the Giants. Like the White Sox, the Giants do not strike out as much as we would like against right-handed pitching, 23%, but with the average strikeouts comes some very below-average offense. Only the Marlins and Tigers trail the Giants in wRC+ against righties this season, and with the extremely pitcher-friendly pitching environment you can see why I’m interested in Gray. The reason I have listed as a FanDuel only play, is because on DraftKings he comes in just $600 less than Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw is not what he once was, especially from a strikeout perspective, but on this slate I would much rather just find the extra money for Kershaw in tournaments, while siding with Gray for $2,500 less on FanDuel.
Drew Pomeranz- This one might be a surprise to some readers because I have spent a good amount of slates attacking Pomeranz this season, but on a small slate with elite offense all over the map, I’m willing to bite the bullet on a punt at pitcher especially in what I personally see as a good matchup. Pomeranz opposed Jon Gray tonight in a matchup with the Colorado Rockies, who, on paper are good against left-handed pitching, but I do think we have to take those numbers with a grain of salt. For starters, this is game does not take place in Coors Field, and as I covered over the weekend with Walker Buehler, this Rockies team ranks dead-last in wRC+ on the road this season, with 27% strikeouts…yes, they’re basically the Miami Marlins outside of Coors Field. Not only that, but they will be without Trevor Story tonight (IL) who is one of the top-five hitters in baseball against left-handed pitching, leaving us with just Nolan Arenado to truly fear in this lineup. The surface numbers don’t look great for Pomeranz this season, 4.68 SIERA, 23% strikeouts, 10% walks, but those 23% strikeouts are better (or the same) as other mid-tier plays in Steven Matz, Zach Eflin and Zack Greinke, and none of those pitchers have a matchup as strong as the road Rockies. Furthermore, if you isolate the numbers for Pomeranz to only his starts in San Francisco this season, you can start to get as excited as I am about this price tag. At home, Pomeranz owns a 4.06 xFIP compared to a 5.31 mark on the road, and his strikeouts rise to 26% at home as well. Overall, this price tag is too cheap for what I think Pomeranz can do in this matchup, and he’s on my radar in all formats tonight.
Building Blocks
Ronald Acuna- As I tweeted this morning, only four (Trout/Martinez/Arenado/Story) batters have higher wOBA’s against left-handed pitching since the start of last season (min. 200 PA). Acuna is in a smash spot on Monday night against the left-handed Jon Lester, and we also get the benefit of the wind blowing out at 15 MPH in Wrigley Field. As I went over on the live stream, this is an extremely chalky slate for cash game builds, and you are starting with Acuna on Monday night.
Kyle Schwarber- Following our first chalky outfielder is a second one in Kyle Schwarber, who is somehow still priced at $3,900 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel. Not only does Schwarber get the wind boost as well, but he has a matchup with Julio Teheran who owns a 5.68 xFIP with 41% hard-contact allowed to left-handed batters this season. I can definitely see the case for fading this game in tournaments at the expected ownership, but in cash games, I think we just eat the chalk.
Gary Sanchez (DK)- This honestly might not end up as the most popular move, but I’m finding that in early cash game builds on DK, there is a lack of Yankees in my lineup, and with them matching up with Aaron Sanchez, I feel like I need some exposure there. Sure, Sanchez isn’t left-handed, but he has still pitched to a 5.98 xFIP with almost 13% walks to right-handed batters this season. On a slate where I will be saving at pitching, spending up on Sanchez is a viable strategy in both cash games and GPPs, even as a one-off.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
