MLB Betting 8/16/18 – Bales’ MyBookie Bets
Bales’ MyBookie Bets
Jon Gray (-110)
The Colorado Rockies are a team that generally goes overlooked on the road, although their winning percentage only drops by 0.2%. Their offense drops on the road, while their pitching improves in every category. Pitching will be the key tonight, as Jon Gray takes the mound for the Rockies. He has struggled with a 4.81 ERA through 22 starts, but he also owns a 3.09 xFIP and a 3.36 SIERA, suggesting he’ll continue to see positive regression as the season continues. He has allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his last seven games, as well. He gets a matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who have also been playing well recently and have found success at home this season. Julio Teheran will draw the start for them, and he has been struggling a bit recently. He has allowed three or more earned runs in three of his last four starts, while recording a 4.33 ERA, 4.80 xFIP, and 4.72 SIERA this season. On a short slate, I’m going to trust the pitcher that has been more consistent and pitching deeper into games – Jon Gray.
Bet 4 units on Colorado ML to win 3.8 units (-105)
Jon Gray (-110)
There are very few games on this slate, and at the time of this article, neither of the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies games were posted. I bet on the Colorado moneyline for safety, and now I’m adding their runline for upside. I’ve already outlined above why I believe they are going to win, and the major boost in odds is enough to make this type of bet on a small slate.
Bet 2 units on Colorado -1.5 RL to win 3.0 units (+150)
Clay Buchholz (-145)
Jacob Nix recently made his MLB debut, shutting out the Philadelphia Phillies over six innings. His debut was extremely impressive, but his 4.20 xFIP and 4.60 SIERA suggest that will not continue. Tonight, he gets a matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are averaging a healthy 4.4 runs per game on the road, while also featuring a 56.7% win rate away from home. Clay Buchholz will be taking the mound for Arizona, and he’s an extremely interesting option. He has looked outstanding this season with a 2.67 ERA through 11 games. He has also allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last 10 starts. His 4.09 xFIP and 4.12 SIERA suggest he will see some regression throughout the remainder of the season, but he has been holding that regression off for multiple starts at this point. He has the chance to blow up at some point this season, but he gets a matchup against one of the worst offenses in the MLB tonight, who also own a 35.5% win rate at home. Nix should find success at the MLB level throughout his career, but I’m siding with Buccholz and Arizona in this matchup.
Bet 2 units on Arizona -1.5 RL to win 2.4 units (+120)
Parlay 2 units on New York Yankees -1.5 RL, Colorado -1.5 RL, Arizona -1.5 RL, and Minnesota ML to win 33.8 units (+1691)
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