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MLB DFS (8/16/18) – Bobby’s Batter Up

MLB BATTER UP August 16th, 2018
  •  This PREMIUM article features top offensive batters per position
  • This includes value plays, upside plays, and contrarian plays
  • Strategic game theory on why we are selecting these batters
  • Advice on the best “Game Stacks” of the day
  • The same players in these articles are the same players you can find in the core of our lineups!

Top Stacks – One of the most important concepts to understand in DFS MLB.  Watch our daily YouTube live podcast for more information on this understanding/mindset.  Keep in mind it is ok to stack 4 guys or 3 from the same team.  This mathematically increases your chances of “cashing” in tournaments.  It isn’t as necessary to stack in cash games (double ups/heads up).  Below is our rankings starting from the best at number 1.

  1. Twins (-167) –   The Twins are going to destroy in this matchup with Francisco Liriano.  Liriano is just as wild as ever and his walk rate is an embarrassing 13.4% which is 3% above his career average.  Things are only going to get worse for Liriano in terms of ERA (currently 4.42) when his xFIP is a 4.97 and his FIP is a 5.32.  His SIERA is an incredibly bad 5.24 and his SwStr% (something Liriano had previously always had success with throughout his career) is now below the league average.  The Twins will not becrazy low-owned by any means.  I’m projecting 10-20% ownership on them which is FINE on a 7-game slate where it is tough to find optimal “low-owned” plays.  The Twins are one of four teams implied over 5 runs on this slate so we really won’t see the crazy ownership we might’ve on a team facing Liriano on 7 game slate.  We also have to keep in the back of our mind that this is a great hitter’s park and while the Twins may only see 8 inning’s of AB’s they play much better at home.  This might sound ridiculous but Ehire Adrianza is the top play here when you place splits on home/away and handiness of pitcher.  He owns an INSANE 206 wRC+/.478 wOBA/1.127 OPS but is batting 9th.  Albeit this is over a smaller sample size of AB’s but if he continues this production he is worth a shot at low-ownership.  He’s 3.1k, fills the SS position, and has a ton of upside with the numbers he has going into the matchup he is.  Max Kepler is the next guy I’m a major fan of and the numbers back it up.  Although he is a lefty, Kepler has major success against his fellow southpaws posting a team-high 116 wRC+/.345 wOBA/.216 ISO line.  Kepler is another guy who’s ownership will be depressed due to his 7th hole spot in the order.  He’s only 3.8k and makes for another great GPP play to use in a Twins stack.  I also want to consider Johnny Field batting 8th in the order who absolutely tore apart AAA at two different teams and then has matched that tear on MLB left-handers.  Another guy in this stack who will be extremely low-owned.  Joe Mauer leading off is someone I want to round this stack off with who contains a ton of value given his numbers and price point.  First of all he is only 3.6k on Draftkings ( a continuing trend that will allow us to get a lot of the hitters we want).  Second his numbers (outside of power #’s) are pretty good against left-handed pitchers with a 100 wRC+/.321 wOBA/.716 OPS line.  Include all of these guys in your stack and feel free to mix and match with Tyler Austin as well who is a great play from the Twins today.  Stick to the bottom of the lineup for the most part for a ton of flexibility with the rest of your lineup.
          1. Favorite One-Off: Ehire Adrianza
          2. Best Bet for a home run: Max Kepler

 

Bobby’s (LOW-OWNED) BOMB’S
David Peralta – 5.3k = 153 wRC+/.255 ISO/.402 wOBA
Trevor Story – 4.9k = .358 wOBA/.236 ISO/109 wRC+
Paul DeJong – 4.5k = .212 ISO /114 wRC+/.786 OPS
 

 

Good luck everyone let’s hit this slate out of the park!

 

Written By: @DF_Advantage 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by DFS Karma LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however, we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. DFS Karma LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at DFS Karma LLC at the time of publication.

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