Bales’ MyBookie Bets
Boston Red Sox
Brian Johnson (-115)
The Boston Red Sox are generally a solid bet when playing at home. They feature a 71.7% win rate in Boston, while averaging 5.7 runs per game at home. Tonight, hey get a matchup against C.C. Sabathia, who has seen a bit of regression recently, allowing 11 runs over his last three starts (15.1 innings). He could continue to see regression, as well, as his 3.53 ERA is still significantly lower than his 4.49 xFIP and 4.38 SIERA. Brian Johnson will be taking the mound for the Red Sox tonight, and he owns a 1.91 ERA over his last 33 innings. The New York Yankees are also without Aaron Judge, who is one of the most dangerous hitters in the MLB. This game should feature plenty of runs, and Boston makes a great option at near even odds.
Bet 4 units on Boston ML to win 3.5 units (-115)
St. Louis Cardinals
Miles Mikolas (-145)
This game features a relatively simple thought process. Miles Mikolas has been an elite pitching option at home this season, where he owns a 5-3 record with a 2.09 ERA through 10 starts. He has also allowed two or fewer runs in six of his last seven games. Antonio Senzatela has struggled away from home this season, posting a 1-3 record with a 7.08 ERA through eight road games (two starts). He also generally fails to pitch deep into games, and St. Louis could see quite a bit of this game against Colorado’s 29th ranked bullpen. The Rockies have also struggled at times to score on the road, which is an added bonus in this matchup. Essentially, I’m siding with the St. Louis pitching staff over Colorado’s tonight.
Bet 2 units on St. Louis -1.5 RL to win 2.9 units (+145)
Tampa Bay Rays
Hunter Wood (+100)
The Tampa Bay Rays bolstered their offense at the trade deadline, and they have been at their best when they are playing a left-handed pitcher in Tampa Bay this season. The Rays have also posted a dominant 60.8% win rate at home this season. They get a great matchup against Andrew Heaney, who has thrown well this season, but owns an 0-4 record with a 5.22 ERA on the road. He gets a matchup against Hunter Wood, who owns a 2.70 ERA in Tampa Bay. Wood is a small part of the Tampa Bay bullpen, who owns an average ERA this season. This method keeps the Los Angeles Angels from getting comfortable at the plate, and Tampa Bay makes a great option for their current odds.
Bet 2 units on Tampa Bay ML to win 2 units (+100)
Parlay 2 units on Boston -1.5 RL, Chicago Cubs -1.5 RL, Washington -1.5 RL, and Texas -1.5 RL to win 48.2 units (+2412)