Bales’ MyBookie Bets
Mike Foltynewicz (+100)
This line is a bit odd. The Nationals have found some success at home, but Atlanta has looked even better on the road. Tommy Milone has looked strong through two starts this season, but they were against the Miami Marlins and New York Mets. He owns a career 4.27 SIERA, though, and has a 4.84 ERA since 2014, suggesting he will see regression as the season moves forward. Mike Foltynewicz will take the mound for the Atlanta Braves, and he owns a 5-5 record with a 2.94 ERA on the road this season. He has also posted a 2-2 record with a 2.52 ERA in four starts against Washington in 2018. The only concern in this game is that Atlanta has been struggling to produce runs over the last week, but they still own a 4-2 record over that span. Overall, I feel Atlanta could start Milone’s regression process tonight, making them a great play for even odds.
Bet 2 units on Atlanta ML to win 2 units (+100)
Mike Clevinger (-200)
The Cleveland Indians are a team that can always be considered at home. They own a 60.3% win rate in Cleveland, while averaging 5.7 runs per game this season. They get a great matchup against Jake Odorizzi, who owns a 1-4 record with a 5.32 ERA over his last nine starts. He has also struggled in three matchups against Cleveland this season, posting an 0-2 record with a 9.88 ERA. The Minnesota Twins have looked great offensively in a few games recently, but they have lost nearly all of their power after the trade deadline. Overall, they are averaging only 4.1 runs per game since the All Star Break. This is a matchup Mike Clevinger can take advantage of. He has allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of his last 10 starts, and that should continue tonight. While Clevinger has had his known struggles in home starts this season, I feel the matchup is a bit too good to pass up.
Bet 4 units on Cleveland -1.5 RL to win 3.6 units (-110)
Jhouyls Chacin (-205)
This is simply a confidence play in Chacin and the Milwaukee offense. They own a 60.3% win rate at home this season. Chacin has also been playing at an elite level, allowing two or fewer runs in seven of his last 10 starts. He has also been a slightly better pitcher at home this season. Furthermore, he gets a matchup against the San Diego Padres, who own one of the worst offenses in the MLB. Brett Kennedy will be making his MLB debut for the Padres tonight. He has looked outstanding in the minor leagues, posting a 31-20 record with a 3.36 ERA through 82 games (79 starts). As we know, a team like the Milwaukee Brewers is a significantly different monster than even the best minor league offenses. Players generally take some time to get accustomed to the MLB level, and that should be the case tonight.
Bet 2 units on MIL -1.5 RL to win 2.1 units (+105)
Parlay 2 units on Boston -1.5 RL, Cleveland -1.5 RL, and Milwaukee -1.5 RL to win 14.4 units (+722)