MLB DFS 8/9/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees continue to feature one of the best offenses in the MLB, ranking second in the Majors in runs scored and OPS, while also ranking 11th in team batting average. They return home, where they have been a dominant offense, hitting .269 with a .477 slugging percentage and an .829 OPS. The Yankees are averaging 5.6 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in New York, as well. They are -220 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.8 runs.
The Yankees get a matchup against Ariel Jurado, who owns a 2-1 record with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP through three starts. He has held his opponents to a 0.7 HR/9, while recording a 6.9 K/9 through 568.1 minor league innings. He is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .250 average with a .417 slugging percentage and a .294 wOBA, while lefties are hitting for a .217/.391/.304 line, as well. Jurado also owns a 5.11 xFIP and a 5.35 SIERA, suggesting he has gotten a bit lucky early in his career. The Yankees possess an offense that can domiante anyone, especially in New York, and that should be the case tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Baltimore Orioles have featured one of the worst offenses in the MLB this season, ranking 25th in runs scored and OPS, while also ranking 27th in team batting average. They have been playing at a high level since the All Star Break, though, hitting .290 with a .497 slugging percentage and an .843 OPS since then. Baltimore is also averaging 5.9 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game over their last 17 games. They are sizable underdogs in a game set at 8 runs, and only feature an implied run total of 3.4 runs tonight.
Hunter Wood will be taking the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. He will only throw a maximum of two innings, though, and then Tampa Bay will utilize their bullpen. It is a tough strategy to take advantage of, but Wood has struggled in limited innings against Baltimore this season. More importantly, Baltimore has been a better offense against right-handed pitching, and Tampa Bay will use multiple righties tonight. The Orioles come with terrible risk, but they will be extremely low owned, and have flashed tremendous upside recently.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Granderson has found some success recently, posting 47% hard-hit and 33% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also owns 0.125 wOBA and 0.091 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Furthermore, he’s leading off for the Blue Jays, and could see a couple extra at-bats tonight.
Betts is hitting .300 with a .525 slugging percentage and a .916 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 41% hard-hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Betts also dominates left-handed pitching, as he has posted a .744 slugging percentage and a .395 ISO in 2018 against lefties.
Turner has performed well against left-handed pitching in 2018, posting a .469 slugging percentage and a .143 ISO against lefties. He also owns 57% hard-hit and 35% fly ball rates with a 99 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Suarez is simply mispriced on the slate tonight. He has thrown well at home this season, recording a 2-3 record with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP through nine starts. He also owns a 1.2 HR/9 with a 7.8 K/9 through 54.1 home innings. Furthermore, Suarez is averaging 16.2 DK points per game in San Francisco. He’s a -130 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving his opponents a 3.8 implied run total tonight.
Suarez gets a great matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who do not strikeout at a high rate, but rank last on the slate in team wOBA. Suarez has also been an elite pitcher against left-handed batters this season, holding them to a .202 average with a .280 slugging percentage and a .220 wOBA. He’s also holding his opponents to a .235/.399/.290 line at home this season. Suarez is entirely too cheap tonight, and he’s an easy player to take advantage of.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Davis is only hitting .189 over his last 10 games, but he also features a .486 slugging percentage and an .820 OPS over that span. He owns 69% hard-hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Davis also possesses 0.041 wOBA and 0.021 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
I have already outlined Hunter Wood above, so I will not do that again. Davis is expected to hit fifth in the Baltimore lineup, and he should see plenty of RBI opportunities. He is not the safest option on the board, though, and he should strictly be used in tournaments on this slate.
Choi has been heating up a bit recently, as he’s hitting .242 with a .364 slugging percentage and a .697 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted a 60% hard-hit rate with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Choi has also been a significantly better option against right-handed pitching, featuring 0.127 wOBA and 0.182 ISO differentials against righties.
He gets a good matchup against David Hess, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .287 average with a .533 slugging percentage and a .376 wOBA. Choi is hitting fifth in the Tampa Bay lineup, adding to his upside tonight. Choi has been playing well enough to be considered in all leagues, though.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)
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